ROTW - my take

[TGJB]

The lesson will turn out to be that if you redboard here you will get ripped a new one.

And by the way, she did save ground, and did not win.

[shanahan]

promised to do this, forgot with a busy work schedule this time of year...

different topic - NY \"rats\"...I was live in the pik 4 with 4 horses at the end. not the winner, which paid over $6K.  I\'m not with you guys who think you can\'t win $$$on the inner...if I see tomorrow that the 6 (only horse with top jk/tr in race) was the TG analysis, I\'ll ...well, I don\'t want to think about that...

[atakante]

Fair enough, I did not bet on this race as there was little time to react.  But it seemed that the argument against Princess Kennedy was a bit superficial and the rest of the field seemed not that far ahead of her numbers-wise.  Overall, the race did not look like a great betting situation so I skipped it.

[Tavasco]

1. The winner Above Fashion was 7 points faster than second place Princess Kennedy on TG sprint race #\'s. Above Fashion suffered a couple or more points of ground loss. One or the other of the top two finishers did not run comparable to their previous tops.

2. Apparently, either Princess Kennedy & Flashy Appeal jumped up significantly or Above Fashion ran off her top like the favorite Speightstastic and still won.

3. Curious that the two lightly raced horses both scratched either could have been read to improve. Probably just coincidence. While it is reasonable that Above Fashion wasn\'t the favorite off her terrible preceding race. It is odd that the crowd made Princess Kennedy the second choice not on speed figures? Causes me to suspect inside information given how well she competed, possibly a winner with an untroubled trip. The win pool was only $60K.

The analysis makes good sense based on the TG #\'s.  It may be a stretch to ascribe class as the term which attracted bettors to Princess Kennedy. The fact that she was bet down and ran so well is the stuff conspiracy stories are made of.

Just because this did not turn out to be a good example of the old class vs speed argument doesn\'t change anything, I think all those arguing class rules have died of old age everything is becoming obsolete. Innovation needed,

[FrankD.]

In the immortal words of our dear friend Harvey Pack!
\"Have a good life\" The original MR Good Life rents a burn barrel from Miff in the Bowery last time I checked.

Tread carefully here newbie the water gets deep awfully fast. Enthusiasm and curiosity are always welcome. Many here will go out of there way to assist and offer help.

JUST LOSE THE TUDE!!!

Frank D.

[FrankD.]

Chemists posing as trainers have buried \"class\" long ago. Toss in the fact the the condition book at most circuits now makes one really dive in to delineate from one heat to another!

I guess XY Jet in todays 4th at Gulf simply \"outclassed\" that field for SR Navarro!

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

I hadn\'t previously seen the 4th race at GP. FrankD\'s reference caused me to watch the replay and take a closer look at the field,the chart and the trainer.

First of all, XY Jet, made the other contenders look like anything but a gang of grade 3 dirt sprinters in FL. A class which always contains at least one jet however fragile. The final time close to the track record of 1:08 and the fractions are eye popping, maybe the rider Emisael is partly to blame he seems to be a hot property.

This \"new class\" issue holds water for me. Navarro, most of whose winning pcts are hovering around 30% is noteworthy in that his best category is first off a claim @38%. A sample size of 194 and yes a modest $2.54 R.O.I.

I guess this does put him at the head of the class with the likes of Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness, Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar with.

What pissed me off the most though was stewards taking down my #6 @ Los Alamitos in the 3rd come on he was a sure thing just on the class drop.

Did I notice most odds on horses fail today? Another phenomena that is curious to me.

[ringato3]

I guess it is the holidays and we are supposed to be nicer....

But boy, this string has some interesting points.

A ridiculous \"told u so\" redboard, which was then sort of retracted.

Then we get a \"shouldn\'t have DQEd that horse that was an OBVIOUS DQ, because he was a \"sure thing on the class drop\".  I used the horse and needed him, but the jockey made a bad move, going to right hand late, causing him to take a sharp turn into a horse that he barely beat.   The DQ was a no brainer,  the question was down to 2nd or down to 3rd.  Could make a case the 3rd place finisher was just making his move when taken out of the race.

Frank D, while I hate the move up guys as much or more than u do, XY Jet got a an extreme speed biased track and a loose lead.  A good recipe.    

Gulfstresm the last few days a bit retro back to the days of a few years back when speed was gold almost every day.   People that get bias numbers probably know that last year was VERY DIFFERENT, as there was almost a meet long tiring track that often punished speed and didn\'t help it.

Rob

[Topcat]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. The winner Above Fashion was 7 points faster
> than second place Princess Kennedy on TG sprint
> race #\'s. Above Fashion suffered a couple or more
> points of ground loss. One or the other of the top
> two finishers did not run comparable to their
> previous tops.
>
> 2. Apparently, either Princess Kennedy & Flashy
> Appeal jumped up significantly or Above Fashion
> ran off her top like the favorite Speightstastic
> and still won.
>
> 3. Curious that the two lightly raced horses both
> scratched either could have been read to improve.
> Probably just coincidence. While it is reasonable
> that Above Fashion wasn\'t the favorite off her
> terrible preceding race. It is odd that the crowd
> made Princess Kennedy the second choice not on
> speed figures? Causes me to suspect inside
> information given how well she competed, possibly
> a winner with an untroubled trip. The win pool was
> only $60K.
>
> The analysis makes good sense based on the TG #\'s.
>  It may be a stretch to ascribe class as the term
> which attracted bettors to Princess Kennedy. The
> fact that she was bet down and ran so well is the
> stuff conspiracy stories are made of.
>
> Just because this did not turn out to be a good
> example of the old class vs speed argument doesn\'t
> change anything, I think all those arguing class
> rules have died of old age everything is becoming
> obsolete. Innovation needed,


Shifty Sheik put a stake in the heart of blind class handicapping, once and for all.

[miff]

\"Shifty Sheik put a stake in the heart of blind class handicapping, once and for all\"

.....Oscar is rolling in his grave!

[miff]

Frank,

XY Jet \"only\" ran like TG -2 yesterday, I say only b/c J.Navarro\'s rep precedes him, Oscar would be proud.

Gulf strip, so far, kinder to speed as Rob noted. Last year they added dirt and it definitely slowed the surface. Naturally,this was never told to the gambling public, par for the course for the Clueless Clowns.

Of derby interest, Baffert on the board yesterday with an expensive 2yr old Mor Spirit who won a 2 turner with a TG 2.5ish.Makes him dangerous if he moves forward with Baffert in control.

Doesn\'t Big Blue have a knack of beating undefeated teams?

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Merry Xmas Frank,

Not sure if your post is tongue in cheek or not. \"Class\" has dominated this sport for centuries.

As for XY Jet, his previous effort, strongly suggested he would handle the class hike.  From the chart \"produced blistering fractions while unasked\".

bbb

[Fairmount1]

Tavasco erroneous wrote:  \"I guess this does put him at the head of the class with the likes of Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness, Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar with.\"

______________________

I am not certain what database or what search yielded these names. One name sticks out to me that doesn\'t fit.  

Bradlee Rainwater (and his now deceased father Owen).  Owen was a 2yo training maestro back in the 70\'s at Fairmount and Cahokia Downs I\'m told.  He reappeared in racing in the 2000\'s in Chicago and his son is now a trainer at Hawthorne and Arlington, occasionally shipping elsewhere in the Midwest.  His horses don\'t run a hole in the wind or 1:08, just ask Rick B. or billk5300s who follow Chicago closely I presume.

[Topcat]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco erroneous wrote:  \"I guess this does put
> him at the head of the class with the likes of
> Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness,
> Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar
> with.\"
>
> ______________________
>
> I am not certain what database or what search
> yielded these names. One name sticks out to me
> that doesn\'t fit.  
>
> Bradlee Rainwater (and his now deceased father
> Owen).  Owen was a 2yo training maestro back in
> the 70\'s at Fairmount and Cahokia Downs I\'m told.
> He reappeared in racing in the 2000\'s in Chicago
> and his son is now a trainer at Hawthorne and
> Arlington, occasionally shipping elsewhere in the
> Midwest.  His horses don\'t run a hole in the wind
> or 1:08, just ask Rick B. or billk5300s who follow
> Chicago closely I presume.

Owen Rainwater was active in the 60\'s at all the Chicago tracks, and believe the history goes back beyond that.  Ageless Indian.

[FrankD.]

BBB,

Happy Holidays to you and yours.

A bit tongue in cheek as a GR-3 isn\'t much of a step up and last winter this one was suspected to have some ability.

Sr Navarro has a knack for doing amazing things. The sire though a small sample size has his runners improve 6 points from 2-3. That is exactly the jump this one took from a 6 at 2 to a 0 in his previous heat which was a 5 point new top.
I\'ll give the Gulf strip a speed friendly rating, I\'ve played it all week.
His total and complete destruction of a decent field with such ease to another 2 point or so new top? Amazing display of hay, water and oatsmenship.

As for \"Class has dominated this sport for centuries\" you are 100% correct. The past tense of \"has dominated\" is exactly that, It\'s not quite as severe as the world ending with Oscar Barrera but it sure as hell changed things quite a bit.

You\'re a bit older than I am from your 50 years of capping references. Cutting my teeth in the 70\'s I also was told that class, class, class is what mattered most.
On a day with super testing, detention barns and quality stakes horses I\'ll still agree with you.

However:
Back in the day condition books consisted of basic allowance conditions, NW 1, 2, 3 etc... How many NW of 3 do you ever see anymore at any venue? Claimers had a specific worth and trainers found their correct levels of competition.

The results from the usual suspects  around the country on a daily basis more than speak for themselves. The one thing T-graph does for sure in no uncertain terms is measure performance ability. On a daily basis we see some AMAZING NEW PERFORMANCES that no longer have a thing to do with class.

If one does not include the \" juice guys\" in their daily capping factors they are simply naive and Bowery bound.

Good luck,

Frank D.