ROTW - my take

[shanahan]

This is the way I use TG data and thought I\'d share it since the ROTW is free:

The first column is a grade I give based on the Thoropattern using the total of \"top\" + \"pair\" + \"off\" % total and using grade school process (85+=A, 75+=B,..).
The second column is the post postion of course, and the expected fig today based on the best # the horse ran in last 12 mos at today\'s dist ( or relevant dist) calculated with the TPattern.  For those of you I shared this with at SAR, you can carry this on one piece of paper.


grade   #         expected fig today  

D   2    (1.04)
C   7    (0.22)
B   6    0.94
A   4    2.70
F   10    3.32
D   3    3.88
B   5    3.88
F   1    4.36
B   9    4.98
B   8    5.34

I can\'t say that today\'s analysis from TG is far different in the way the expected figs came in, but the big advantage I\'ve found TY using the product is to put more emphasis than previous on TR tops (# 4,5,6) and the ThorPattern.  For me, the TPattern gives me a grade - the fastest horse today is Valid, but the pattern indicates little likelihood of good performance - hence, I give it a grade \"D\".  70% chance he\'s somewhere close to an \"off\" race.  Encryption I gave a \"C\" and expect an average race.  This is where the TR 90 day data and grades really can identify some good overlays.  I\'ll play  Mexicoma and Encryption on top of valid/Mex,Encryp and longshot Ami\'s holiday (#5) who is slower for sure, but appears to be up for a good one with a nice 90 day TR angle.  And he\'s 20:1 ML.

BTW - this sucks for 2YO...Hope I didn\'t bore you.

[atakante]

I am new to this, what do you think went wrong with your analysis?

[richiebee]

Atakante:

I am not going to answer for Shanahan who, when not attending a Fighting Irish
football game, might be attending the races on either coast or somewhere in
the midwest.

As a newcomer you have not been privy to hours of conversation and many
threads discussing the efficacy of Thoro-pattern analysis. I can say that
there is even disagreement among the inTelliGensia at the highest levels about
said analysis. There are warnings and disclaimers throughout the introductory
literature noting that the Thoro pattern analysis takes the last 3 TG #s into
account (ir)regardless of surface, spacing, class,  etc.

Valid, the winner of the Harlan\'s Hannukah stakes, came into the race with a
Thoro pattern of \"Off - Off - Off\". TP analysis showed that 3028 runners with
a comparable pattern had a dismal Top/Pair/Off/X distribution of 5%/21%
42%/32% -- not very encouraging.

Upon further review, Valid\'s 3 \"Offs\" were, starting with his most recent race,
a defeat at the hands of a Pletchermonster in the BC Dirt Mile, a stakes win
at GP, and a stakes win at Mth. Furthermore, Valid\'s \"Offs\" were as fast or
faster than most of the field\'s \"Tops\".

Again, I am not breaking any new ground here, and this was a rather extreme
case of a \"misleading\" Thoro- pattern analysis.

[shanahan]

Well put.  The facts are that of the 4 top rated horses, they were the exacta, albeit a short one.  Yes, as Richiebee says, the prediciton of what Valid would run today was an \"off\" at best - but even that is faster than the rest which I should taken into account.

No one really commented on it - silence takes over after BC I\'m afraid at least till Sunshine MIllions Day and not later I hope - so I wouldn\'t say I had the analysis wrong, I just bet it wrong.  I think that puts me in select company!

I\'m going to do it again this week while in sunny NY and post it.  

Alan - did TG post final figs?  Curious.

[atakante]

Thanks for the explanation.  This year I have done quite some reading online and Amazon recommended books on handicapping before I landed on Thorograph.  I am an engineer by trade so no stranger to numbers and statistics in that sense.  I find thoroughbred racing fun to watch and a fascinating complex puzzle to solve that is good to keep your gray matter sharp.  I liken the pattern reading to technical analysis in stocks...something most reputed investors see as necessary evil to understand market sentiment, but without a sound scientific basis unlike value investing for example.

Maybe b/c I am a novice, I concentrated on the overall Thoro ratings and Valid jumped at me as the clear class of the filed.  This colt never ran a truly bad race since  his 3yr. old campaign on turf it seems.  So it was an easy win bet that paid off for me. However, my exactas pairing him with Encryption and Mexicoma tanked.  To me the most bothersome was seeing the paltry performance from Encryption.  Also, I did not see Mr. Jordan being a factor other than early speed.  My best explanation is potential rail bias of Gulfstream putting outside post positions at a disadvantage...but looking at other races the same day it seems quite a few outside pp horses made it to the winners circle so my theory is suspect at best.

I realize there is no sure thing and we are playing the probabilities but there has to be some explanation to why Encryption (and Mexicoma) were so underwhelming that day.  Just thinking out loud...

[TGJB]

The first and most important answer to your question came from you-- it\'s all about probability and percentages, no individual result means your analysis was wrong.

As it happens Alan (who wrote ROTW this week) and I had had an ongoing discussion about that race for about 10 minutes leading up to the start. One important point to remember is that horses going North/South when it\'s cold(er) up here usually take about a month to acclimate. I told Al that especially with both Mexicoma and Encryption coming off efforts (a top in one case and an 0-2 in the other) they were horses I could see running off races today and running well next time.

There are other questions concerning Encryption, like a) about the negative figure coming at a time Breen was getting huge figures at Dodge City-- whoops, I mean Parx- and that b) even if you disregard that, he had a history of tailing off after big efforts, and c) the huge effort could have cooked him under any circumstances.

And on top of all that there\'s the Pletcher in Florida stuff...

[richiebee]

Welcome aboard.

Shit. I\'m playing against computers (with technology soon to be available to
the common man) AND engineers.

And if I manage to somehow select a live horse who isn\'t hammered from 7/2 to
8/5 after the gates open, my selection is likely to get devoured by a Pletcher
monster, taken down by an incompetent steward, or ridden by a malnourished kid
who is hanging on for dear life.

Not to mention Rocky (Mathcapper), who has a huge arsenal of statistics and
other published data at his disposal. Rocky, by the way, is as nice a person as
you could expect to meet, anywhere. Despite his analytical mind, his admirable
facility with the mathematical and all the aforementioned data at his disposal,
Rocky NEVER neglects to pay homage to his father, who got Rocky hooked on
clocking will pays at an early age.

A reasonable man would run from this game like his ass was on fire, but having
been afflicted with equihippicitis (don\'t bother looking that up, it\'s a
neighborhood word) at an early age, my chances of escape are negligible.

[TGJB]

One interesting thing about Rocky is that he does not appear to own a shirt that has a collar.

[FrankD.]

JB,

He is a true back yard disciple of the Uncle Bill fashion line. Rocky can go anywhere with me collar or not and gain admittance.

[johnnym]

I consider myself a newbie to this as well,great conversation.

[Mathcapper]

Ha! - not even on Travers day. Five years as an engineer, and another ten in the stock market where I had to wear a shirt and tie every day (as atakante may be able to attest) turned me into a rebel without a cause.

I actually had to throw one on the other day - it must\'ve shrunk about three sizes sitting in my closest because I couldn\'t come close to fastening that last button around my neck.

[Dick Powell]

Richie,
To paraphrase Olsen Johnson, \"Not only was it authentic Staten Island gibberish, it expressed the courage little seen in this day and age.\"

Remember, when a horse\'s ass is on fire, he runs back into the barn. That\'s what we have done all our lives.
Dick

[moosepalm]

richiebee Wrote:

> A reasonable man would run from this game like his
> ass was on fire,

I had that the other day after excessive intake of habaneros.  I couldn\'t run anywhere.


> but having been afflicted with equihippicitis

I hope that isn\'t what kept you out of the TG Open this year.


After spending weeks, here, reading about CRW\'s and various and sundry other automated and semi-automated interlopers in this game taking bigger and bigger bites out of the shrinking pools, I nevertheless hold steadfast in my belief that, paraphrasing the comic page sage, Pogo, \"I have met the enemy, and he is me.\"  The game ain\'t getting any easier, but I ain\'t getting any smarter, either.

[richiebee]

Dick Powell Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
 
> Remember, when a horse\'s ass is on fire, he runs
> back into the barn. That\'s what we have done all
> our lives.

> Dick


Mr. Powell is referring to a rather horrifying equine character quirk. Once a
horse is removed from a burning barn, it needs to be fastened to something to
prevent it from returning to its stall even as said stall is engulfed in flames.

This was first told to me by a trainer on my first day as a night watchman. He
told me this right after he told me that before I evacuated any thoroughbreds,
I was to move his expensive pickup truck away from the barn and then save his
wife\'s buckskin pony.

[atakante]

Well, Princess Kennedy just ruined the ROTW party.  Luckily, I was expecting this!  Looked like she could win it all easily if she could save some ground.  The question is what is the lesson learnt?