TG players recently voiced an opinion they prefer turf over dirt. The Daytona Stakes on opening day offers a 13 horse field on turf, down the hill at 6.5 furlongs. The morning line favorite draws the 11 post position. I’ll attempt to improve my turf handicapping and maybe open up a discussion on a very interesting race.
Daytona Stakes, Race 4, Santa Anita, 6.5 furlongs on turf, Down the Hill, Dec 26, 2015
Richard’s Boy—first of two Peter Miller charges in side by side. This one paired his top, a 3 in his last at 5f on the turf after running a 3 on dirt. The dirt “3” came after almost 3 months off. Spaced another 43 days since his last, this one looks likely to pair up or move backwards according to Thoropattern. He will likely save ground, carries only 117, getting 7 lbs from the M/L fav No Silent and 7 lbs from 3rd choice on the M/L Alert Bay. Useable underneath only.
Big Cazanova—Whether it is poly, dirt, or turf, this one’s best is a “2.” Has ran back to back to back “2’s” in turf, turf, and dirt events respectively. He cuts back from routes all year to a sprint to end it on a course that many believe horses need one over before running their best. Figures to save ground, has competitive figs but seems unlikely to break through to a new top at 6yo. Dislike his chances but must be used at the bottom of the tri if you are heading in that direction.
Mystery Train—This is the second U.S. turf race for the 2nd Argentine bred in the race. His first turf race in the U.S. was a disaster. His poly track starts at Del Mar last year and WO this year provide no confidence. His best on dirt is a “3,” also cuts back to a tricky, tricky distance for a router first time. Seems to get a good trip always and could spoil the bottom of the tri with an effort equivalent to his dirt best but this seems unlikely. Playing against.
Rocket Heat—12th start of the year for this 3yo son of Latent Heat, bred to sprint on turf. Not one race on the page puts him in contention. Likes to run 1st or 2nd but just too slow and heavily raced. Throw out.
Big Bane Theory—After his 3yo season, has been a model of consistency numbers-wise running numbers in a range of 1 to 5 since August of his 4yo year. Numbers of 1, 2, 2, 3, and 3 appear on the page for turf races. Has run on the course earlier this year earning a 4 in a 3w trip. Note the Sl place that may have compromised him in his last. Contender.
Plainview--SCRATCHED
Alert Bay—This one’s last 4 races have been his best. City Zip gelding has posted 2, neg 0.5, 2, and 3 carving out 2w to 4w trips in all routes. His sprint at Golden Gate earned a 7 but that was his first race in four plus months. Co-highweight in the race comes out of the same Sl Pace race as Big Bane Theory but he was beaten by that one after being just 2.5 to 4 lengths off the pace early unlike BBT who was another 4 lengths back in the early going. His best race came as the third in a short succession similar to today’s race. If he runs back close to the -0.5, with Garcia aboard, he will be in the tri and if gets to that number he can win here. Has won at the dist on the course albeit against CalBreds in ’14. Contender.
Bench Warrant—ran a 1w trip over the course on Oct 8th, first off a layoff earning an “8” which along with all his other races makes him too slow. Sadler earning tops and pairs at a combined 49 to 60% rate in various categories last 90 days. That is your best angle to use him but looks too slow and needs a major move up to contend. Throw out.
Holy Lute—Another making his 12th start of the year. Ran 2nd at 6.5 furlongs in April, May, and Sept (at SA, SA, And KD) earning figs in those 3 races of 3, 3, and 3. Carries 119 getting 5 lbs from the two co-highweights giving him a 1 point advantage against those two. Troubled trip line means he may get overbet off of his last but this 5yo is a borderline contender for the win on his best and player in the exotics underneath.
The Great War—One of Wesley Ward’s specialties is grass, turf sprinters. Ward trainees ran 2nd-3rd during the weekend of his life at the 2014 BC with No Nay Never and Undrafted on this 6.5 furlong course. (Ward was in Florida watching his son run State CC championships if you are curious). 2015 hasn’t been as kind to Ward but he still has won some races . He still is dangerous in this type spot. This one has earned a 1 at Turfway Park, where richiebee declared him his Derby pick. Spaced out races major cause for concern obviously but shipping him out there shows confidence. The 3 earned at WO where “failed to hold late” was a decent effort after 70 days off since Ward’s almost complete debacle at Saratoga as a trainer. This one Ran awful on BC weekend for Ward at his home track in turf sprint where Ward had at least 3 entered as I recall. This one ran at SA in 2014 at BC when trained by O’Brien before being given to Ward earning an 8 while running a race that made him look like a sprinter. Kent D and Ward team up for 61% pairs or tops in 43 starts. Carries 117 pounds. If he returns to a 1 or better, improving off the 3 at WO (treating the BC as a throwout), this one has price and legit win potential. This one is the biggest question mark in the race but is a must use at the price and the potential this 3yo has shown this year. CONTENDER, USEABLE in WIN POSITION.
Somethings Unusual—this horse will drive some TG posters nutso with his consistency earning a 5 in 11 straight starts dating back to last Dec. Then in Oct, on this course at this distance, he earned a 3 finishing 2nd by a head in $100k Stakes (Calbred?). He finally threw in a clunker on number power in November and returned to his usual “5.” Now, he returns to his scene of his lifetime top but even that seems unlikely at 119 emerging out of post 10. Throwout.
No Silent—Morning line favorite and Co-highweight giving 5 lbs or more to everyone except Alert Bay. His lifetime top is a 3, earning that figure on six occasions. A new top at 6yo, at 124, with 11 post seems unlikely. TG would likely write to throw him out altogether while Rick B. would say be sure to use him with your best opinions. He won the 3 races before the BC bounce, earning a 3 in all 3 of those events including a G3 6.5 furlong race on this course. Using underneath only.
Toowindytohaulrox—Phil D’Amato trainee has earned a “5” in 5 straight races, with 7 straight “6’s” before that with one of those on dirt. Model of consistency, some will argue this is impossible, but regardless, too slow and poor post with a jockey I am unfamiliar with. Throwout.
Coastline—2nd D’Amato trainee intrigues despite the outside post. First time D’Amato on a horse that was bumped around stretch in last on Prelude to the Cup Day at Kee. Lovell trained that day, Casse prior to that race. Lightly raced on turf, figs of 3 on dirt in Oct, 4 on poly in August, 4 on turf at Gulf suggest a talent level that gets him close to these. If D’Amato can improve this one a few lengths from prior trainers on D’Amato’s preferred surface of success, he can be used even lightly in the top spot.
Bottom Line—several horses in a tight range of figures that are useable but narrowing the possibilities including eliminating the fav from the win spot seems logical and likely. The Great War is the one I will focus on with a win bet and key him in first and second with Big Bane Theory, Alert Bay, Holy Lute, and Coastline in the opposite spot of TGW. In third spot I’ll use the ones mentioned above plus Richard’s Boy, Cazanova, and No Silent. $1 tri unit: 10 with 5, 7, 9, 14 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24. $1 tri unit: 5, 7, 9, 14 with 10 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24.
If you dislike The Great War and want to throw him out, box the other four in the exacta and/or trifecta at $1 unit cost of $12 for ex and $24 for tri (12-1, 5-1, 9-2, 20-1 on M/L) in a 13 horse field on a big day.
If you are looking to play horizontally, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 14. 5, 9, 10—A’s and 7, 14 as B’s if you like to use Crist’s method.
Curious others thoughts on betting structure as I discussed recently and received several helpful posts, both on board and privately. Keep them coming if you have more insight in advance of this one. Thanks.
Good Luck!
