Happy Holidays -- ROTW Open

[johnnym]

How can you tell my the sheets if a horse is the speed of the speed?
Take it one step further how can you guys tell what kind of running style a horse has by only looking at the sheets?
Thanks
John

[belmont3]

Santa Anita Observations:

Things are warm and quiet here in Northeastern Pa.

Short sleeve shirts still in style.
Looking at the opening day card in total, the only horizontal opportunity I see is Carnal Knowledge on Netflix.

No compelling reason to TVG it until the Daytona where chaos may reign supreme. Quite a few turning back in distance and another group stretching back out form the 5, 5 1/2 distance to the downhill 6 1/2 at SA.

Think this race lends itself to a vertical wager.
Taking the opposite tack of Captain Frank on this leg.
Likely (odds based naturally) to key Alert Bay. Except for the slow paced paced ( 48.3, 113.1) Seabiscuit, 4 year old Alert Bay ran a new lifetime top in September. Has affinity for SA and has decent spacing coming into this event. Number power versus these is evident.
Like most of the off pace closing types, AB will need a decent trip to win but consider him a very likely top 4 finisher.

Will play around with a few of the longer shots like Big C, Big B (Bane ), Holy Lute and a small helping of the D\'Amato\'s.
Much of what I like to do is odds dependent, thus, hard to be definitive until scratches and odds are posted.

Safe to say I will be using Alert Bay as my key at 4 to one or better.

MATHIS:

This race has appeal for what I do not like more than any firm opinion on an entry that I  do like. On number power, the TG range on the likely favorites is around a 5. That obviously makes OM a major player along with Perfectly Majestic and Crittenden (both have decent  #\'s and are posted inside.).
 
Trying to avoid MOTODOM (being a Master Of The Obvious) instincts tell me that a TG 5 may not win this.
So I went shopping for some potentially tote busting values that might run better than the 5.
Giving consideration to:
1)  Ground Rules- Sise last seen doing a rain dance....but still a modest 5/2 favorite in his first turf try the Let It Ride. At 12-1 or higher, with the rail, spacing and back # power (albeit on the dirt), have to use in any ticket.

2) Soul Driver (8-1 ML) apparent gate problems often compromise. Likely to close if the race fa1ls apart.

3) Vigilante (6-ML)  1st D\'Amato-- looks a bit slow but lightly raced 3yo with room to go forward.

As for the closing sequence of races, no opinions of any consequence. Think form will prevail in the 7th and 8th. The 9th quite chaotic.

Against my initial Carnal proclamation, I may abandon Ann Margaret for a late pik 4 \'spreading\' the 6th and 9th wile Cavorting with some Hot City Girls and Duchesses in the 7th. Will hope for an \"UNHAPPY\" Malibu with Marking, Watershed and Lord N as the main considerations.

Best of luck to all.

Bob

[Ace]

To elaborate, my bet is 14/ 1,2/ all, 14 /all/1,2 and I\'ll probably reduce the all to a few less than all with a few throw outs

[Fairmount1]

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[ringato3]

Fairmount,

Nice writeup and interesting longshot.  I am not saying I am necessarily a fan of the favorite in a large field here, but what exactly do you think is wrong with post 11 going down the hill at SA?  I assume you know the outside is actually the inside and a fairly significant advantage going 6.5 down the hill?  post 11 is ideal.  Post 13 would be ideal.  Post 1 is a disaster....

Personally, I almost always best outside posted horses with local course experience going 6.5.  That said, I am going to take a shot with Coastline if I can get the right price.  D\'Amato can move them up, the horse has had talent for quite awhile, and has reasonable number power.  With the ideal post and a move up trainer, have to take my shot.

Rob

[johnnym]

TY

[P-Dub]

It will interesting to see how the tote shakes out, as there are several contenders and nobody stands out on figures.

Richard\'s Boy, Big Cazanova, Holy Lute, The Great War look fastest at around the 3/3.5 level. Alert Bay hurt by the weight but a must use.

The Great War has run the fastest with that TP Poly, stretched out and ran poorly. Shortened back up and ran 2 good races before the BC poor one.  I\'ll toss that effort, and at anything close to the ML gets my money. Solid connections and Kent knows how to go down that hill.

I have a feeling Big Cazanova gets overlooked and is a must use underneath. Love route speed down the hill. Might even get my win money if TGW gets bet too much.

[bellsbendboy]

Difficult to go past OM at something to five.  Since Gary got on and the shades came off this Munnings colt has been terrific.  Showed a new dimension in last rating kindly off the speed though may have moved too early. Class of the race with a pair of graded wins and as such spots five pounds while shortening up a pole.

No bargain with a jumbled pace possible so adding the Tiznow colt for the hot pink.  Vigilante needs a contested pace but he fires every time.  A bit green,  often the case with this pedigree, when first unveiled in Louisville before a sizzling final sixteenth six weeks hence.  Johnnie knew what he had and delivered a pretty ride to break his maiden before the handsome bay traveled to Lexington and \"waited\" for the long trip going last to first with a big rail and well wide. Wayne worked him in the black on the lawn as he was nominated to the big stake there against older, then worked for maintenance and shipping before getting to new barn.  Drew the three hole in the Hollywood Derby but scratched and has worked well enough since.

Playing the inside three in the La Brea.  

RUN HAPPY ran off in his first work out here but Gary on for seven eighths Monday and he looked fabulous.  Either of the regally bred royal blue colts could contend getting five pounds and both worked very well and bring their riders.

Last a crapshoot with a bunch of underachievers. So will do some shopping.  Tuco will appreciate less weight, Lasix and more forgiving turns as rider returns from broken back, Hollendorfer\'s roan was given a prep and has been lights out in the morning since, and the Street Sense gelding who has been freshened and is a silly price on the ML.  bbb

[ringato3]

20-1 over 50-1 with the two \"outside\" posts down the hill.....

$1500 for $1 exacta.  Wow.

Rob

[gagoots007]

And both D\'Amato horses. Thanks for your view on the 14.

[Fairmount1]

The $1 exacta paid $762.20.  

Good call on the outside posts.  I do not have any statistics dating several years with respect to the DTH course and post positions but would love to see them.  Certainly in this instance, you were accurate with your statement.  

Trakus though says those two horses ran further than everyone else.  4375 feet for the winner and 4388 for the 2nd place Coastline.  Coastline went further than the winner by 13 feet and that may have been the difference.  Also, the real story in my mind is that they finished in 5.98 seconds and 6.09 seconds respectively, faster than everyone except Bench Warrant\'s 6.03.  I guess it is plausible the outside posts allow for a more relaxed route down the hill and around the turn.  The winner\'s connections loved that he was outside of horses as that is his preferred style for future reference.  

I\'m sure you can imagine my dismay that Coastline didn\'t get there for what would have been a nice horizontal score in the pick 3 for $1.  Was alive to The Great War for $2 (should have been $4 to TGW but I messed that up in my poor wagering).  The 21-1 shot paid $1138.00 for $1 pick 3 ending in race 4.  My guess is Coastline would have been your preference too based on your pre-race predictions.  Thanks for the insight on the Downhill Posts as I will pay very close attention in my handicapping in the future on the rare occassions I look at the left coast.

[Ace]

Coastline was my pick and I walked away with no cash, since I only bet Coastline to win. This was after cashing the previous two races with longshots on WPS bets when they didn\'t quite get there. $44 and $20 to place and show. I got cocky, I guess. Still, I had a nice small profit on the day and got the annual calendar giveaway and got away before the traffic. Santa Anita needs to figure out how to handle crowds. It was not enjoyable today, long lines everywhere and no place to sit after paying the $10 clubhouse admission.

[Tavasco]

It is reminiscent of mighty Casey struck out and it\'s quiet in Mudsville.

We like to find something to take away from our ROTW projects. But before I get to that, I would like to commend Fairmount for an outstanding race choice and a well considered write-up. Ringato3 hit on key points with D\'Amato and the outside post positions on the track configuration. Let us not omit FrankD for his astute identification of the speed of the speed.

Reflecting back, I\'ve seen plenty of fast early fractions on that downhill zigzag hurdle the dirt layout. I just don\'t think of a turf sprints blowing up because of early fractions going downhill? But I think that is exactly what happened in general.

Rocket Heat ran the legs off of the figure horses I expected to contend. There was no short price favorite which left six contenders in the 4/1 - 8/1 range. None of them would have surprised me by winning and one of them just about had to get into the exacta probably two.

The first big surprise, for me, was not that Rocket Heat ran so well early, he is a 5F specialist and most of us expected him to be swallowed up just beyond the dirt strip. What I had not thought through was the effect he could have (and did) on that contentious group. I am usually very keen on factoring in pace and I should have realized Big Casanova^*1 was severely compromised rather than think along with P-Dub and consider that one an after Christmas bargain.

The second surprise was the payoff. Lots posted here about depressed payoffs when one pricey horse is involved but I believe only the most astute or carefree bettors bet two or even three long priced horses on a ticket. The exacta pool was about $340K and $237K thereabouts for the trifecta. Large enough, I guess, for those who got boxcars not to be shorted.

^*1 Big Casanova also apparently failed the start another weak link with horses unaccustomed to passing others.

Oh! and kudos to Marking. I thought he was solid in defeat. Didn\'t look to me as if Runhappy bounced or doesn\'t get along with his new conditioner and per TG analysis Lord Nelson was ready, not that it mattered because runhappy is an equine Forest Gump.

Lastly, seemingly large crowd in Japan with cool weather to watch $4.3M Grand Prix won by a very bettable 18/1 Gold Actor. So many people were cheering you\'d think American Pharaoh had just won the BCC @ odds on.

[RICH]

pp1  133-14 11%
pp2  133-16 12
pp3  133-11 08
pp4  133-17 13
pp5  133-11 08
pp6  130-14 11
pp7  127-14 11
pp8  109-11 10
pp9  90-11  12
pp10 70-9   13
pp11 41-4   10
pp12 19-1   05

[P-Dub]

\"should have realized Big Casanova was severely compromised rather than think along with P-Dub and consider that one an after Christmas bargain.\"

At 9/2 a toss on top. Played a bit underneath. He wasn\'t a bargain at that price.

I have a few buddies that love playing outside posts down the hill.  No numbers to back it up, but I\'ve seen my share of huge prices come from there.  With as much SA as I watch, I should have known better.