Thank You

[richiebee]

Rick:

With all due respect, I know the official result but still do not see how the
winner\'s graph supports said result.

I understand the notion of the circle closing, of this runner returning to that
\"17\" TG # that might be good enough to seal the deal. My problem here is that
many runners seem to have been running, at least at one point or other during
this year, TG #s in the 11 - 16 range. Multiple times, compared to the winner\'s
two visits to \"17\".

If you want to tell me that we can see the win pool, and realize that this
horse is 200/1, then maybe you look at the graph, do a bit of a double take,
and say \"This ain\'t the worst looking 200/1 shot!\"

I\'m not breaking stones here, but I am just not seeing anything here but
randomness, and I would appreciate if you could all take a look here and tell
me what I am missing.

[albatross]

Mr. Bee. My intention was not to insult anyone or try to make myself an expert. Been using both figure makers since they were handwritten and love the game. I did want to say THANK YOU, not knowing it was an issue. I did check, and online at least I\'m still stuck 3k for the year, so it helped. But $2 to win. I certainly didn\'t bet it with any conviction, so I think that removes the gloat factor. To me it was more of a feel good story posted anonymously. I have been reading both boards, still use both products. I posted last summer about the Wishing Well in Wilton , NY on a restaurant thread, but other than that I Always just read. Other than the office, no one on here knows who Albatross is so if you want to call it an anonymous gloat, I\'ll go along with you. Good Luck and I\'ll wait to post again as a Food Critic

[FrankD.]

Tross,

The world has enough food critics and not nearly enough 200/1 shots!

In the course of the least productive business week of the year I too was taking advantage of T-graph freebies and made a few MVR wagers yesterday. It must be contagious among degenerates as they had a record handle there yesterday.

I don\'t think Richie or anyone else is waving the red board flag at a $2 WPS and $1 exacta box. It is the ultimate feel good story and who can resist the urge to share a $400 horse! I had a similar post 5-6 years ago about Hudson Heights who paid $228 at Aqueduct and the pick 4 paid well for 3 out of 4 that day. How close I came to taking down a whole NYRA pick 4 pool.

I bet that race keying the 6 and 8 horses on top with the 11sy on the 6 and forward moving 18 15 on on the 8 and did use your horse in the handful of 16 to 18 underneath  projections in the race. 6,8 /6,8 / 2,3,5,7,9,12 & 6,8/ 2,3,5,7,9,12 / 6.8 along with an exacta box and a win bet on the 8.

Congrats and keep the feel good stories coming, after all it\'s a new plant on the leaky roof circuit in the rain on a Tuesday!!!

Frank D.

[FrankD.]

On 2nd thought I should have read the red board thread before responding!!!!

[TGJB]

Frank, you raise an interesting point. 105 people took the free Mvr free full sheets, 66 took TQuick. I have to wonder how much of that record handle came from our guys, and specifically from those who don\'t usually play that track.

[milwmike]

Slow day at work and after reading this string (and I never considered playing this track before this string), I decided to take advantage of the free information.  Got in starting with race 4 and my bet of choice is P3/P4.  Information was spot on today. Thanks.

[richiebee]

Albatross:

Thanks for the good natured reply. I think you realize my commentary was mostly
tongue in cheek, and as Frank seems to be saying, the next time you have a gut
feeling about a horse about to pay a huge mutuel AND a restaurant review, please
post about the horse and leave the restaurant piece for a rainy day or some 90
pound Asian girl on Yelp.

I\'ve just looked at the graphs for this race again and still see 8 or 9 others
arguably faster than this runner. Maybe someone with time on their hands could
collect the graphs for all horses who paid over $100 this year, see if they had
anything in common other than randomness or chaos.

Like the reference to handwritten figs, but this is a \"can you top this\" type of
environment and I am quite sure someone will come forward to say that they were
reading figs off the walls of the caves at Altamira.

[albatross]

Since I went one too many Walkers with some old friends, I can\'t hold back and will reply. You, my good man are just a HATER, and I will leave it at THAT.

[TGJB]

Wha?

Take another shot at that reply tomorrow.

[Fairmount1]

I think I will take this opportunity to interrupt the Haterade Debate here to say something I\'ve wanted to say for quite some time.

Despite richiebee\'s good natured orneriness intertwined in the post, I believe ultimately he was seeking a handicapping discussion and providing some ideas about how to find these high priced winners.  I recall Frank D. saying he was hoping to see more handicapping on the board several months ago (and possibly took a sabbatical from posting as a result?).  During this week of free data, there is no better time to share ideas and handicapping insights and thoughts.  

More than a decade ago, I started following the board because of one reason and one reason only.  I would regularly read alternative and unique handicapping ideas even if some of them came from some real clowns because they would at least make you think about the races more thoroughly even if you disagreed (often in advance).  

I hope that 2016 will continue the excellent discussions on many important racing topics as happened numerous times this year but will also include an increased amount of handicapping discussion each week.  Happy New Year to everyone.

[Sandreadis]

SA 7th. 1 Mile on the Turf (rail at 20 ft.) Full field.

How do you see this race?

[Fairmount1]

Turf race in California.  Two strikes against me already.  Add in the fact that there are two D\'Amato\'s like the Daytona and I am probably swinging and missing again.  But in the spirit of my post, I\'ll take a shot.  Everyone carrying 120-124 except the 10 so weight has horses within a 1 point advantage/disadvantage of each other.  

If you believe in TG figs in Europe which some have strong opinions about, you certainly have to consider the Sadler horse, Nancy from Nairobi, who also has FTL tomorrow.  Would be curious what the workout gurus think of this one, if anything.  TGJB insistent that his figs in Europe are accurate and if this one fires a similar shot here or improves she stands a great chance.    

Simon Callahan trained FootstepsinBronze, who has the same sire as his Divinia Comedia. First time Simon, last time was off poorly (op) and time of the race is in question (time), makes for an interesting proposition after posting a \"4\" on dirt in the summer victory and 7\'s in turf races for Julio.  Note his last was a 5 furlong turf race where he earned the 11 1/2 and this looks like a more appropriate distance.  Several strong trainer angles listed in the TG stats.      

The D\'Amato trained Spirit of Ten won three in a row after a trainer change and has posted back to back 5\'s into a Slow pace in his last.  The other D\'Amato I have no idea, esp with limited sire data.  

Without looking at additional PP\'s, those are the three I would be interested in horizontals and that I would use in the exacta.   3, 5, 7 Exacta Box and I would probably bet the 3 to win depending on odds and other info I might learn pre-race.  Some will say Baltas/Stevens horse the one to beat but the post, and the figs of the others would have me leaning against without other info (PP\'s and videos).  

C+  Grade of my confidence in the race.  Good luck.

[FrankD.]

WOW could ya have picked a tougher race!

I capped 3 tracks for tomorrow and this is one of 3 unplayable races of the day.
It looks like it will take a 5-6 to win the heat, I have 8 projections from 5-7 with half them having a license to go forward. If Chati\'s on Top draws in I would use her other than that good luck.

I\'ll provide the book ends for the pick 3 with Wasted at Midnight one of my best bets of the day at the ML and Sunday Rules in the 6th. Ceeme Run Wild & Dreamarcher in the 8th.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[richiebee]

Albatross:

Hatred? Nay.

You are betting cheap thoroughbreds (and scoring!) and drinking expensive whiskey
in the middle of the week.

I\'m JEALOUS! I haven\'t done that for years.

Can\'t hate a man whose screen name is the same name as Fleetwood Mac\'s first and
only attempt at a \"Surf\" sound.

[Tavasco]

For me the essential question is why would the morning line maker (public) assign 12/1 to Achievers Legacy? Why would I toss this horse from consideration? Then I ask myself what is the opposite of my limiting considerations.

Con View:
Achievers Legacy was off all summer(?) comes back in a sprint (not her game) and runs a credible 2nd. Follows that up with another TG 10 while being steadied at the point she would make her move. So the negative conclusion could be the horse was off because of ailments and came back slower. Minus she is unproven on turf. El Paso!

Pro View:
Hollendorfer has pointed this filly to a winter campaign. Her winter 2014 spring 2015 could not look much sounder. She worked her way down to a 4² and the filly routinely looses ground due to her late running style. After a couple of conditioning sprints there is a reasonable chance this horse may take to the turf. She ran an 8 on artificial which is positive to me.

So I conclude my pro scenario is just as likely as the con scenario. Van Dyke helps the price but little else, imo. Trainer stats 3rd off L/O and Last <30 days are healthy 58% itm but not among Hollendorfer\'s best categories.

I project a TG 7 is what it takes to be competitive, I view that figure within my choice\'s capability and better would not surprise me. She is my key. Hope I can get near the morning line because this will be my only bet(s) tomorrow.


As for Mahoning Valley, even there, a 99/1 horse has no merits I\'ve been able to find. Yet as at nearby MNR that is often the key to playing their races. While we might believe RichieBee has strong opinions I think it is unnecessary to label him a hater I know for sure he likes early Fleetwood Mac in general and I suspect Albatross in particular. Peace On Earth!  edit - oops - redundancy, Richie I hadn\'t seen your post sorry.