Tournaments

[cruzm73]

For the last few years I\'ve been dabbling in tournament play - had a little luck but nothing major.  I follow tourney play and see a lot of folks that are very consistent - my question is: do you think a majority of those \"consistent\" tourney players use handicapping soft-wear or just employ their own methods using paper products?  Reason I\'m asking is I\'m a paper player and go thru a lot of hot and cold periods - wondering if I should/shouldn\'t test the high-tech waters.

[Rick B.]

cruzm73 Wrote:
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> I\'m a paper player and go thru a lot of hot
> and cold periods - wondering if I should/
> shouldn\'t test the high-tech waters.

I might suggest that you invest more time and
effort refining your current methods.

When you are \"hot\", do you know why? Can you
sustain these runs even longer...or do you
get bored and push the envelope?

When you are cold, are you beating yourself?
Chasing? Playing too many races?

Going to the HPWS? Look me up. I can outline
my approach -- I\'m a \"paper player\", but much
of my paper has TG data on them, and I\'ll take
on ANY computer program with TG on my side.

[drbillym]

I dunno Rick, past two NHC winners used computer programs, your big win was 8 years ago.  The Times, they are A-Changin!

[Rick B.]

Hi Bill,

You are right, maybe. Even a relic like me uses the
PC for organizing and presenting handicapping information.

That is Decision Support work, though. Letting your computer
program decide *what* to bet is Selection Mode, and I
question how many sharp guys are now just blindly following
their computer program selections.

Regards,
Rick

[johnnym]

Considering I recentley switched from a flip phone how would one even go about getting a computer program to match every angel and variable possible?

I am a paper player,on big days I need to download all the sheets,I cannot look at a computer screen I need to compare. I make notes, highlight some angels I may play and spit out my pick.. So if I use a computer how would it work?

1) Do you punch in your #\'s and let the computer make the pick?
2) Are the #\'s automatically downloaded and then it makes the pick?
3) Are these programs out there or do you need to hire some one to customer make a   program?

John

[drbillym]

No reliable or worthwhile computer program just spits out picks based on numbers input.  Human input required.  Sent you private message so as not to burden this board with other programs.  
Rick B., gentlemanly reply as I was worried about getting one of your venomous replies(which I usually agree with!).

[joemama]

There is some computer handicapping software available at https://www.cynthiapublishing.com.  Haven\'t used it so can\'t speak to it\'s usefulness.  It appears there is information available there to  help with the use of their products at said website.

[miff]

Hi Rick,

On record as feeling contest format is garbage and promotes clueless blind stabs at cap horses for the most part.

Question as a non contest follower. Is it possible to win a qualifier/contest if a cap horse hits and you do not have it?

Thanks
Mike

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> Hi Rick,
>
> On record as feeling contest format is garbage and
> promotes clueless blind stabs at cap horses for
> the most part.
>
> Question as a non contest follower. Is it possible
> to win a qualifier/contest if a cap horse hits and
> you do not have it?
>
> Thanks
> Mike

In my experience it is highly unlikely for someone to
win a contest without hitting a cap horse or two.

A few years back fellow Chicagoan Paul Yaffee won a WP
format contest at the Gold Coast by hitting a ton of
logical winners at fat (but not cap) prices. This is
the one exception I can think of, more are out there I suppose.

IMO, some part of how people feel about this topic is derived
from their everyday play; \"Old School\" guys that scour the Form
looking for today\'s clever $8.00 horse couldn\'t bet a 20-1 shot
by accident, and tend to look down their noses at these contests.

And that\'s fine: some guys can make money on $8 horses.

If I didn\'t think I could find at least one $20 horse today I
wouldn\'t even bother to look at the Form. That is everyday, so
contests are a natural for me. YMMV.

[miff]

Thanks. Asked because a few weeks ago a good friend who plays in contests called me cursing all that is holy.While leading throughout in a contest, an impossible looking longshot won a stakes race(think) and knocked him out of a spot in NHC. Told me he 7 of 12 winners but did not qualify as 3 people with only 2 winners beat him.

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> Told me he 7 of 12 winners but did not qualify

Not to start a quibble, but I read something like
this and say: lots of short prices, not impressed.

[Tavasco]

Kind of like winning the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina primaries. In the end it boils down to a few major opportunities.

My first thought was - finding a $20 horse in todays collection of 3K -5k claimers @ such well known tourist destinations as Mahoning Vally, Turf Paradise and Oldsmar. The ghost of George Steinbrenner still roams the halls of the latter.

Then He\'s a Miracle runs 2nd in the 1st race at Tampa Bay Downs paying $23.80 to place and I\'m reminded that anything can and does happen.

Good Luck Rick B and all contestants remembering if they had obvious merits they wouldn\'t be the price they are.

[P-Dub]

Tavasco Wrote:
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> Then He\'s a Miracle runs 2nd in the 1st race at
> Tampa Bay Downs paying $23.80 to place and I\'m
> reminded that anything can and does happen.
>

I don\'t know what this horse looks like on TG, but its the type of horse that can be played if you are using pace data.

[Tavasco]

P-Dub

Are we talking about the same horse? He\'s a Miracle had only passed one horse in his last nine races and about a year. To pass several late in the race to run second surprised me.

I understand the early speed of the favorite ran all the other suspected contenders off their feet which explains the crowds 3/5 confidence.

What was it about the #7 pace #\'s that tipped him for you?

[P-Dub]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub
>
> Are we talking about the same horse? He\'s a
> Miracle had only passed one horse in his last nine
> races and about a year. To pass several late in
> the race to run second surprised me.
>
> I understand the early speed of the favorite ran
> all the other suspected contenders off their feet
> which explains the crowds 3/5 confidence.
>
> What was it about the #7 pace #\'s that tipped him
> for you?

Its a TG board, so I\'ll PM you about it. Don\'t want to get into a non-TG give and take.

I use TG on big race days.  I struggle with them on cheap races, which is what most races are on a daily basis.

Next weekend I\'ll have them for Big Cap Day, I\'ll be down there all weekend.  Anyone attending that weekend hit me up, I\'ll let you buy the first round.