Gotham Pick 4

[FrankD.]

Inner tube is a speedway on the rail today:

Heavenly Prize: Mei Ling hammered down to 7/2 & Cali Star

8th: Little Popsie, The Big Deluxe & Doctor Dempsey

Gotham: Lauban, Shagaf & Rally Cry

10th; Bustin the Bank & St. Joseph

Double up with Mei Ling

Good luck,

Frank D.

[mjellish]

You are dead right about speed on the rail at Aqueduct today Frank.  Will be interesting to see how that influences the Gotham.

[miff]

Frank,

Bias??? Kool Aid drinkers will be upset, there\'s no such thing!

[Tavasco]

Well done Frank. Sometime you you can\'t be more right. The #1 looked like a winner for a long time in the Gotham. Interestingly, that one\'s odds ticked up, not down, on the backstretch after the start.

[johnnym]

Nice job Frank

[FrankD.]

MJ,

It influenced it all right, Laoban almost stole the whole show which would have made a 3K pick as opposed to $350.Heady ride by Irad to sit the golden rail and only come out in the stretch to just get there. Sunny Ridge looked like he was running in quick sand trying to stalk on the outside.

I wasn\'t paying much attention to the inner tube until the late pick 4 and made no big deal of the first few with 2/1 or less going wire to wire in 5 and 6 horse fields. The 50/1 shot in the 6th got mine and a lot of others attention by the way Mei Ling was bet to start the sequence.

[jbelfior]

Great call Frank. I nailed the tri thanks to you.

Adventist has a nice future if they can fix the stop and go.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I guess that would depend on your brand of Kool Aide? Brand R says tracks don\'t change. Over here we have a little notation called an X that is quite a bias and one of the few semi secrets left in the world.

You and I both know that every time 2 6/5 shots go wire to wire some idiot starts yelling it\'s a speed bias. Today was a true bias and the definition of a conveyer belt for sure.

[FrankD.]

Thanks Joe and the others, if Lauban stays on top I\'m a hero instead it\'s just a nice days pay. I\'ll confess to having a couple of zero\'s on the Lauban / Shagaf ex box though

[mjellish]

I was right there with you Frank.  When the 5 horse with blinkers on got to the rail and took them wire to wire in the 5th the only things I looked at from there on out were post position, early speed and fitness.  I did not bet the 6th race as I was not sure who was going to get the lead and the rail, so I did not have 6 that came home at 50-1.  But the rest of the card was easy.  That was as strong and clear cut of a rail speed bias as you will ever see.

[atakante]

How many lengths do you think Laoban gained due to the rail bias? 3-4-5?

[mjellish]

No clue.  And that\'s the wrong way to look at it IMO.  The simple fact was that a fit horse who got to the front and the rail wasn\'t going to quit so long as they stayed on the rail.  The jock on the 1 knew that.  He won earlier that way, and in the Gotham he whipped the 1 out of the gate and used a lot of juice to get to the lead and stay on the rail.  Had the bias not been there who\'s to say the 1 doesn\'t quit at the top of the lane after being used so hard early and drop back 20 lengths by the finish.  So you going to downgrade him by 20 lengths in his next on a fair track?

[miff]

Weak Gotham winner Shafaf received only an 87 Beyer(TG 5.50)as most 3yr olds continue to be relatively slow.Not so early anymore.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I would not put any credence in figures run on yesterday\'s conveyer belt especially per a Beyer adjustment! It will be very interesting to see how TGJB does the day and those that ran against the grain?

IMHO it\'s one of those days to trust your eyes and instincts and wait for those who ran in quick sand to run back off a horrible looking line.

David Greening from DRF:

That he handled two turns and rallied from fourth on a speed-favoring track were the positives for Shagaf, a gorgeous son of Bernardini trained by Chad Brown. That he seemed to be inhibited by kickback and his final time of 1:45.90 - the slowest of 11 Gothams run at 1 1/16 miles - were the negatives.

\"I’m not worried about [the time] because the track the last two days has been weird,” said Irad Ortiz Jr., Shagaf’s jockey. “He has some talent.\"

Ortiz rode Shagaf about an hour after being unseated past the finish line by Cali Star, his mount in the $150,000 Heavenly Prize Stakes. Ortiz was removed from the track on a stretcher, missed his mount in race 8, but said he was fine when he walked out Aqueduct’s First Aid office after being evaluated by track medical staff.

Sensing the speed-biased nature of the track, Ortiz suggested to Brown to perhaps put Shagaf on the lead. Ortiz said Brown didn’t want to do that, instead opting to educate the horse, getting him behind horses and taking some dirt.

\"He said \'Let\'s teach him, let’s educate him, if we don’t win, we don’t win,\'\"Ortiz said. \"Thank God it worked out good because I did everything he told me and he still won the race.\"

Shagaf, breaking from post 2, broke sharp and was in front crossing the finish line the first time. But the maiden Laoban, after breaking toward the inside, was sent to the front by Aaron Gryder, per instructions from trainer Eric Guillot.

Shagaf settled into second position, outside of Rally Cry, about two lengths behind Laoban, who ran an opening quarter in 23.33 seconds. Shagaf got a little bit closer to Laoban, but then appeared to come off the bridle as he was getting dirt kicked back at him. Shagaf dropped back to fourth midway down the backside.

\"He lost a little bit when he got some kick back, he didn’t really love that, but we have to educate him,\" Ortiz said.

[miff]

Frank,

There is no way to make the Gotham close to fast, bias noted. If you use the other 1 1/16 race, then Mei Ling outran Shagaf. If you project off the horses behind Shagaf it\'s equally slow, many X\'s for any horse wide yesterday as a result of the iron rail.

Agree the surface played to the slow side all day, raw, but even after adjustment there is no way to get a fast fig for Shagaf. A good day to remember because the data will not reflect the huge edge to speed and inside path.