3 year olds

[ringato3]

I haven\'t seen the TG figs for the recent 3 year old races over the last 2 weeks, so perhaps they tell a different story, but I can\'t remember a recent year where we were in almost mid-March and there really aren\'t any fast 3 year olds.  

Mohaymen can\'t get past a 95 Beyer and despite seeming to win easy, he isn\'t running fast at all.  (TGJB seemed to hint that he has the last race faster than Beyer, so maybe).  When you factor in his smallish physical size and the fact that he doesn\'t really have the gate speed to \"make his own trip\", he would seem to be an underlay at this point.  I can\'t say I am \"against\" the horse, but I am pretty neutral and as a very short price with a very large bandwagon, being neutral makes me sort of against him relative to price.

Nyquist - Got the large TG figure in the BC, but extreme ground loss loaded into the figure.  The entire race seems to have been weak to my eye.   Granted, his 7 furlong race this year was very nice, but guy still seems that he may be distance challenged based on breeding and I can\'t love the 7 furlong, ship to Florida, then the Derby route.  If you want to go two preps, it would seem that 2 routes would be better.  But who knows.  Whoever wins the Florida Derby, if it is Nyquistt or Mohaymen, would seem to be 1-5 to be the post time favorite on Derby day.

Mor Spirit - Another who really hasn\'t done anything wrong, except he also hasn\'t run fast.  Sat a perfect trip behind 2 speed horses who may have limitations in his last race.  Then got the job done while really not asked for his best.  Perhaps he has more in the tank.  

There are others, but they really haven\'t distinguished themselves on the numbers yet.

Maybe the next 8 weeks will have some horses run fast races and change the way it looks now, but I, for one, will be looking for a longshot in the Derby if the favorites continue to run very mediocre figures.

I guess the bright side is we won\'t have to hear \"too fast too soon\" in the Derby TG package...

Rob

[jbelfior]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I haven\'t seen the TG figs for the recent 3 year
> old races over the last 2 weeks, so perhaps they
> tell a different story, but I can\'t remember a
> recent year where we were in almost mid-March and
> there really aren\'t any fast 3 year olds.  
>
> Mohaymen can\'t get past a 95 Beyer and despite
> seeming to win easy, he isn\'t running fast at all.
>  (TGJB seemed to hint that he has the last race
> faster than Beyer, so maybe).  When you factor in
> his smallish physical size and the fact that he
> doesn\'t really have the gate speed to \"make his
> own trip\", he would seem to be an underlay at this
> point.  I can\'t say I am \"against\" the horse, but
> I am pretty neutral and as a very short price with
> a very large bandwagon, being neutral makes me
> sort of against him relative to price.
>
> Nyquist - Got the large TG figure in the BC, but
> extreme ground loss loaded into the figure.  The
> entire race seems to have been weak to my eye.  
> Granted, his 7 furlong race this year was very
> nice, but guy still seems to be maybe be distance
> challenged based on breeding and I can\'t love the
> 7 furlong, ship to Florida, then the Derby route.
> If you want to go two preps, it would seem that 2
> routes would be better.  But who knows.  Whoever
> wins the Florida Derby, if it is Nyquistt or
> Mohaymen, would seem to be 1-5 to be the post time
> favorite on Derby day.
>
> Mor Spirit - Another who really hasn\'t done
> anything wrong, except he also hasn\'t run fast.
> Sat a perfect trip behind 2 speed horses who may
> have limitations in his last race.  Then got the
> job done while really not asked for his best.
> Perhaps he has more in the tank.  
>
> There are others, but they really haven\'t
> distinguished themselves on the numbers yet.
>
> Maybe the next 8 weeks will have some horses run
> fast races and change the way it looks now, but I,
> for one, will be looking for a longshot in the
> Derby if the favorites continue to run very
> mediocre figures.
>
> I guess the bright side is we won\'t have to hear
> \"too fast too soon\" in the Derby TG package...
>
> Rob


Still early. AP didnt arrive on the scene until the second week of March last year. Agree no fast ones yet and doubtful there are any AP\'s lurking. Derby and NCAA tournament have much in common this year.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

While the simple explanation I\'ve seen in years past is this is a fast crop or a slow crop or an average crop. Such an explanation sure seems simplistic to me.

Considering the importance of the TC races and assuming trainers have been gaining knowledge over the years, a campaign strategy of slow acceleration/improvement with the goal of a peak performance @CD makes a lot of sense in a perfect and orderly world. In such a world one would not expect top performances until May. C/B the qualifying points system affects developmental approaches.

The facts of too fast too soon can\'t have been lost on the complete trainer community. The economics of high priced young horses lost early in their careers has to be on somebodies radar large and small outfits.

Without knowing details or methodologies, what about the possibility of propagation. If a 2 y/o mdn winner\'s performance # is graded erroneously high/low (whatever the cause), then that two year old subsequently races competitively  against other top prospects often on days of mysterious track variance, wouldn\'t the early mis-figure have the potential of distorting relative #\'s that follow?

That is, supposing there are some checks and balances, can one or two early mis-figures make a crop fast or slow?

The fact that this year\'s 3 y/o male stars look and compete as good as they do and yet grade as semi-fast is interesting.

[miff]

Good year for a filly to take a derby shot(they wont) Both Songbird and Catherine Sophia competitive on figs.

Take a look at a firster 3yr old filly Lightstream, msw yesterday at GP, did it every which way to sunday and it comes out fastest 3 yr old performance by either sex, all distances, like TG 0

[johnnym]

Is it a coincidence that the injuries seem to be down this year as well?
I am still anticipating a nice jump in Mohaymans # for the FL Derby even though I think Nyquist will have the screws tighter for the Bonus $$

[TGJB]

Excellent point about the injuries. I would also note more trainers are going with lighter prep schedules and more spacing.

Re the comment on the string about AP not coming out until mid March, he ran faster as a 2yo than almost any of these did so far as a 3yo. Twice.

Meanwhile, there\'s a filly out there that hasn\'t gotten nearly enough credit.

[miff]

Why hasn\'t Carina Mia started?

[Caradoc]

She looked to be ready about now but likely has been impacted by the Payson Park quarantine.

[miff]

Thanks, looked like a serious filly at 2

[Silver Charm]

You make a great point. But if one were go into the Archives and look at the last 10 Derby Winners only 3 of them as of the first of March had run Negative #\'s.

Big Brown
Orb
Street Sense - who did his at 2.

The fact that some of them were running 0\'s and 1\'s by now and most of these, if not all of them this year are not is a marginal difference to me.

Certain Trainers don\'t have as many Derby Contenders which could explain the fewer injuries. The lighter racing schedules is also a contributor. But that can also become a negative to me. A horse with 4 starts who isn\'t that fast going into the Derby is going to be hard pressed to pull a Giacomo, Mine That Bird or Charismatic. I question if he is seasoned and tough enough to handle a 20 horse Derby distance and field....

[NormandyInvasion]

Her name is?

[atakante]

Curious to see if Brody\'s Cause will live up to expectations in his upcoming 3yo debut.  Most rankings still giving him plenty credit for his 2yo campaign.

[TGJB]

The one who owns the three fastest figures by a 3yo of either gender.

[ajkreider]

Well, it\'s got to be Cathryn Sophia by that measure.  There isn\'t a horse out there, I don\'t think, that has three negative numbers.  I think she\'s been given her due, but she hasn\'t been around two turns - which is a worry.

Gotta say, that match up in the Oaks has a chance to be really, really special.

[TGJB]

Whether she can go two turns or not, she\'s done what she\'s done, and not all great horses are routers. Most young horses that come out running that fast crack by this point, and she may soon, so training her up to the Oaks is at least worth considering, and spacing her races in general.