3 year olds

[big18741]

1 for 43

[mjellish]

And the 1 not only wasn\'t running big numbers in florida he did not have his final prep in florida, and he shipped to kentucky and worked out over the CD strip leading up to the Derby.

[johnnym]

He was very lucky that Ice Box was stopped at least twice coming down the stretch,and Looking at Lucky had the 1 hole..

[joemama]

Servis trainer a horse named Jostle and won the Alabama way back when.  Might be worth taking a look at that horse.

[Flighted Iron]

From 2006-2015: 31 starters and 1 win. The stat is slightly diversionary. I\'m of the opinion no more than 10 and as low as 8 of these entrants had a legitimate chance of running first, second and third. As of this moment though Mor Spirit is my key. Mor Spirit will have to seriously disappoint in his subsequent races for me to change my opinion. At this point i like him as much as i liked Nehro.

Good luck,

 Flighted

[mjellish]

You\'re talking about Baffert here.  I don\'t have a problem with him for the KY Derby.  I was referring to Pletcher, the trainer of Destin who you mentioned in your post.  Pletcher has had a lot more horses with a lot more big numbers coming into the Derby than Baffert has over the past 10 years.  Baffert has also shown he can get them ready for a peak effort first Saturday in May, and hold them together for the next 5 weeks (he didn\'t get enough credit for what he did with American Pharoah last year in my opinion).  Apples to oranges vs Pletcher and the Triple Crown, also IMO again.

[Flighted Iron]

The part of my post regarding the 1 for 31 was about pletcher. I reviewed the archives and my take is only 10 and as low as 8 entrants for pletcher were legitimate to run 1,2 and 3. Re baffert: never mentioned him. I mentioned the Mor Spirit.
I also mentioned Destin. Hasn\'t run out of his skin and imo seems the type who will go on.

[ringato3]

Anybody arguing that Pletcher is anything but a disgusting, underachieving Derby trainer has been asleep for the last 15 years.

One lucky win.  

Many fast horses that didn\'t run a step.  

JCovello tried to come up with a laundry list of excuses for him last year, which I actually bought into and got on the Materiality bandwagon.  Yet another horse he ruined on the way to the Derby.

We shouldn\'t be mentioning Pletcher in the same sentence or even paragraph as Baffert when it comes to the derby.  It would be Sort of like deciding between Gisele Bundchen and Rosie O\"donnel for the cover of the sports illustrated swimsuit edition.  (no offense to Rosie, she is a comedian, not a model)  That is how close Pletcher is to Baffert.

Ro

[mjellish]

Never know, Iron.  Either one of those two could turn out to be the one.  For me its way too early to be talking about key horses in the KY Derby.  They havent even run the San Felipe or the Rebel yet, let alone some of the other ones.  I usually dont have a key horse or horses finalized until after the post position draw, although i may have some strong inclinations.  But even then i am often still working on my Derby bet the night after the Oaks card and i am willing to change my opinion right up till my bet is in if need be. There\'s a lot of data points to consider, and most of them aren\'t in yet.

[Flighted Iron]

From 2006-2015 70% of the Derby winners were 8-1 or less.

Number of pletcher runners in that 70% were 6. Number of wins out of the 6 was the 1 lucky one you mentioned.

Same time frame 67% of horse to finish first,second and third were 13-1 or lowet.

Number of pletcher entrants in the 67% were 10. Number of top 3 finishes is 3.

The seven who were 13-1 and under who ran out.

Materiality, Verrazano and Dunkirk are the too fast too soon poster horses.

Carpe Diem and Gemologist are headscratchers. Good lines coming in, but that\'s horseracing.

Devil May Care coming in off a 4 point top. I must admit i tried hard to get a pair from her. The whole Malibu Moon thing. Anyhow.

Last but not least is Circular Quay.Went Street Sense on top of CQ for a bunch. Probably a bunch more than that come to think of it. Shoot!

CQ actually paired his top and if I\'m not mistaken ran thd second fastest fig in the race. Befitting name cause this guy sure had a key to a whole new circle. Wide and Wider.

Flighted Iron

[ringato3]

Flight,

Nice data.

But 1 for 43 is 1 for 43.  he has had plenty of fast horses.  Sure, the odds on some of the recent ones have started to drift up, because everybody realizes his horses don\'t run their numbers in the Derby.  (you missed Bandini on your list.  Didn\'t doublecheck, but pretty sure he was Pletcher and had some big number in the bluegrass (negative 2ish?), where he trounced the host\'s favorite 3-year old that year, High Limit.  

Whatever the reasons are, tough to feel good about having Pletcher train any 3 year old that you have your eye on for the Derby.

Rob

[jbelfior]

Speaking of the Toddster-- one of the great money burners of all time looks to burn more in the Big Cap tomorrow.
From the looks of his ML, I\'m sure many chomping at the bit after seeing that romp in the slop at GP.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

The question here is not where they finish, but how they run compared to their Florida form. And I\'m pretty sure we covered that in a Derby seminar or three.