Ask The Experts

3-4-6-8

Sometimes it takes a loss to truly appreciate how special something is.  I was at the Pacific Classic when Cigar went for the consecutive win streak and lost.  It was still a fantastic experience and he lost nothing in defeat.

Obviously worth: Easy Goer. 3 Derby prep wins including very fast Gotham, flashy Belmont, 2 Triple Crown seconds, Travers , Woodward, Whitney,  Gold Cup and finished with a second in BC Classic. 6 G1 wins and 3 G1 seconds. Oh wait he didn\'t win. Just proves it is horse of the \"year\". Chrome won in a weak year. Who else gets it last year? Connections sealed the deal with the G1 on turf for 4 G1 wins (all against 3yo). But still that\'s 4 G1s. Not too shabby.

Quite the rant. No doubt things set up well for him but with the exception of Sunday Silence, Alysheba and Silver Charm I feel it has set up well for most horses that won the first two legs before failing in the Belmont. The horse makes his own luck.

I\'m no expert but even so I can appreciate how well he moves, especially in the mornings.  Even his jogs look amazing and both his works post Preakness were beautiful. Plus I think he is a very intelligent horse the way he stands calmly and is so relaxed and friendly with people.

I hope he stays healthy and races again later this year. I don\'t think we\'ve seen his best yet

Weighing in late. The ground loss is based on geometry with no dispute.  Theoretically you can run faster on a larger radius turn then you can on a shorter one.  The larger the radius the closer to a straight line.  This is empirical. Go out and ride your bike and you can go faster if the turn radius is larger. Whether a single path makes that makes of a difference is disputable and no way can compensate for the ground loss. Watch runners in a long distance track race. They all want to race close to the inside lane to save ground. Now watch a 200 or 400 meter race where they stagger the starts based on ground loss.  The fastest runner wants the middle lane. Why not the first lane. He/she can see every other runner which seems ideal but it\'s clear you can run faster in a middle lane with a larger turn radius. This advantage would extend to the outer lanes also but then you have the disadvantage of not seeing the other runners.

I know you haven\'t done the analysis. If AP gets Neg 3, Keen Ice is going to get a big fig (better than Frosted)and Moobie then runs a 2 point top also.  Could be the right answer though. De Kock said his horse was much better coming into Belmont than the Derby.  He made a big threatening move but couldn\'t sustain.  With Lasix he might\'ve run a zero.

That range of number looks reasonable and fits with his prior races.  The way he layed down his final quarter pulling away from Frosted was really nice but track was glib and Keen Ice was running just as fast late.  Moobie rang a better race than Derby and if AP is -2 that puts Moobie around +2. Seems reasonable. Will be interested to see the number but he clearly ran within himself.