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Messages - Einstein66

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1
Ask the Experts / Re: International Star and Rail
« on: April 24, 2015, 11:46:30 PM »
I was at Mountaineer the day Mena and Garcia missed their flights to WV Derby, and to say some people were very upset would be an understatement. Mine That Bird ran in the race -- the first winner of a Triple Crown race to ever run in the state of West Virginia. Huge crowd for the race, beautiful weather, but no Mena or Garcia. The media was told they had travel issues. Local jockey Dale Beckner picked up Mena\'s mount, Soul Warrior, and won at 23-1. I\'m glad to see Mena getting it back together.

2
Ask the Experts / Re: any early thoughts on pace?
« on: April 24, 2015, 02:16:05 AM »
I agree with Pizzalove. Whenever there is a ton of speed on paper and an early drag race seems inevitable, it rarely works out that way. The jockeys and trainers figure the same thing and plan to let everyone else burn themselves out. Obviously post draw will mean a lot, but I won\'t be surprised at all if it\'s a reasonable pace.

3
Ask the Experts / Re: cigar street
« on: October 31, 2014, 11:52:31 PM »
He certainly could be shorter odds than Bayern. I\'m thinking 9-1 4th choice.

4
Ask the Experts / Track bias at SA
« on: October 30, 2014, 11:45:40 AM »
Track seems to be very speed-favoring, and getting worse every day. Are we going to have another big race day where the track is juiced for record times? I really hope not.

5
Ask the Experts / Sorry, Doug
« on: October 04, 2014, 03:09:52 AM »
Thankfully, no BC for Mr. O\'Neill. It\'s at least a start.

6
Ask the Experts / Re: The Belmont by the sheets
« on: June 06, 2011, 02:29:05 PM »
Wrongly, you are right, but lately, it\'s the other way around.

Only one of the past nine Belmont winners ran in the Preakness (Afleet Alex).

Since 2002,

Preakness runners account for 11% of the Belmont winners (one) while making up 21 % of the entries (22).


Non-Preakness runners account for 89% of the Belmont winners (eight) while making up only 80% of the entries (87).

Da\'Tara and Sarava ran in the Preakness undercard, so maybe it\'s not having a fresh horse as much as the toll of running in the Preakness specifically.

Also, over that span, horses that ran in the Derby-Preakness are 50 percent out of the money in the Belmont (9 of 18). (and obviously 50 percent in the money).

7
Ask the Experts / Re: Fastus Cactus - Dutrow
« on: June 03, 2011, 02:11:17 PM »
Dead last in field of six as the 3-2 favorite. Whadda ya\' know

8
Ask the Experts / Re: Data on horses running in all 3 legs
« on: June 01, 2011, 04:55:59 PM »
I went back 15 years earlier today. Here are the runners from 1996-2002 who raced in all three. Don\'t have the old T-G numbers, maybe, Jim, you can help fill in the blanks

2002 -- War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Medalgia d\'Oro
2001 -- Point Given, AP Valentine, Monarchos, Dollar Bill
2000 -- Impeachment
1999 -- Charasmatic, Adonis, Menifee, Stephen Got Even
1998 -- Victory Gallop, Real Quiet, Basic Trainee
1997 -- Silver Charm, Free House
1996 -- Editor\'s Note, Skip Away, Louis Quatorze, Prince of Thieves, Cavonnier,In Contention

9
Ask the Experts / Re: Can someone please explain this payout?
« on: May 31, 2011, 10:32:59 PM »
Maybe it was a function of a small exacta pool or one of those quirks you see on the Will Pays at other tracks.

But Mike Welsch also noticed it, going so far as to say something was \"amiss.\" Welsch wrote \"hopefully somebody here will take a look at the betting patterns for the race and try to ascertain where all those winning tickets came on the 5-2 combination.\"

As for only $119 being bet on the winning exacta. That\'s 30X the amount bet on the winning tri ($4) and 240X the amount bet on the winning super (50 cents).


http://www.drf.com/blogs/calder-something-amiss-exacta-payoff

10
Ask the Experts / Re: Can someone please explain this payout?
« on: May 29, 2011, 12:52:43 PM »
Thanks for reply, Frank. Still seems fishy to me. So there were 60 winning exacta tickets with the two longshots up top and only two winning tri tickets with a 4-1 at the bottom.

Also --- and I may just not know the process -- but how does a $2 super pay $32K when there\'s only $8,500 in the pool?  

Maybe I\'m just jaded from seeing so many races at Calder/South Fla tracks over the years where I shook my head and thought, \'Yeah, fix was in there.\'

11
Ask the Experts / Can someone please explain this payout?
« on: May 29, 2011, 12:30:39 PM »
Race 2 at Calder --- $82 winner over a 36-1. Exacta pays a measly $275. What a joke. Trifecta was $7,400 (4-1 finished third) and super was $31,000. NO WAY that exacta should pay less than $500 unless someone really loaded up on it. Only at Calder.

12
Ask the Experts / Sixth race at Belmont today
« on: May 27, 2011, 04:19:31 PM »
If you get a chance, check out the video of this race. Ramon Dominguez is fine, but you\'ve got to love the double take by the lead jockey at the top of the stretch and the way the \"winning\" horse digs in. It is classic.  



http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/Broadcast/Video/Video.shtml

13
Ask the Experts / Re: Master of Hounds
« on: May 23, 2011, 05:38:57 PM »
Nothing official, but Aidan O\'Brien said after the Derby that he was likely to return for the Belmont.

MMM and Nehro are almost for sure. Shackleford, AK and Santiva are likely. Stay Thirsy is almost definite.

Also Alternation, Prime Cut, Anthony’s Cross, Jaycito, Awesome Patriot and/or Uncle Sam.

Might actually turn out to be a decent field.

14
Ask the Experts / Re: Has Anyone Ever Won a KD Futures Bet?
« on: May 14, 2011, 04:32:21 PM »
Steve B. I would say it\'s more of a trend but for a good reason. There are many more horses running in the Derby with only two prep races lately. After Sunny\'s Halo in 1983, there were only 22 Derby runners with two preps in the next 20 years. From 07-10 alone there were 21. This year, though, just four.

15
Ask the Experts / Re: 137th Derby by Sekrah
« on: May 06, 2011, 04:48:11 AM »
holy bull, regarding Soldat\'s FLA Derby flop, the last time a Derby winner was worth than fourth in his final prep was 1957. (Iron Liege fifth in Derby Trial)

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