Ask The Experts

Can anyone shed the light on the negative implications associated with Bolt D\' Oro wearing Bell Boots in his gallop/jog this morning?   Watching the Replay on CD and it just doesn\'t seem like a good sign that a horse with a quarter crack in the SA Derby is wearing those now?  

Any thoughts on this issue?

If anyone sees what the current odds are for the derby, please post them.

Looks like this guy is going to be 5/2 with all the pre race guarantees Dutrow is giving.

What are his knocks?

Lightly raced, yes, but he appears to be the  lone speed.

Distance limitations?   Yes, he slows down the final quarter but he may be ahead so much it doesn\'t matter (i.e.  Real Quiet).

Post Position?   I can\'t imagine any post hurting his chances with his tactical speed, except for 19 or 20.

Thoughts?

Does anyone have any expert advice on how to handle Kip Deville with the information being reported that he had \"swelling in  his pastern\" and a \"filling\" was put in it.

His trainer says he is fine and had  a good workout afterwards.  However, I am curious as to whether this is considered significant.

I see this horse having a good trip and he may like softer turf but I am worried about his condition.

Here\'s my listing of bad favorites with explanations.  Comments are invited, goal is to throw out the bad one\'s obviously.


Juvenile.

CQuay---Horse will be overbet, looks like a glorified sprinter, and did not run well around two turns.  


Mile:

Aragorn---  Pace will hurt him and his last race is not the type you want going into a major BCUP race.  Can save ground though and that is only plus.

FM Turf:

No Beefs here


Distaff:

Tons of speed here.  FLeet Indian\'s post position will answer this question in my book.

Sprint:

Favorites appear tough.  I learned never to bet this race until PP are drawn. Henny or Bordonora or both will be excluded by the Draw.  Any comments are welcomed on this race.

Turf:

I don\'t like Americans.  They have beaten one another and that\'s it.

Classic:


Strange Race.  Benadini is too easy to pick, Lava Man can\'t handle surface, Invasor never runs a bad race but fitness is question.  Reminds me of 99 at Gulfstream.  

The Classic has to start with Bernadini/Invasor.  If one of them run his race, with the weight allowance and decent post, either is tough.

But, we all remember those that did not run their race in the classic.

Aptitude, I thought, was a lock, he\'s still running

In 99, there were several nice horses that did not run, Awakamatel, Behrens, General Challenge.

In 2000, Tiznow ran his race again when I thought he would bounce.


The negatives of Bernadini are his lack of rest, his lack of testing in big fields, older horses???  Anything else

Invasor, also looks good has rest, never runs a bad race.  

Perhaps Post Position and pace will clear this up some more, but I hate knowing the two favorites are unbeatable.  Somebody help!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think Derby Day brings out big money from casual bettors who go heavy on the exotics.  If you get a crazy horse, then you see big payoffs, otherwise you don\'t.

I thought the undercard looked chalky so I shied away from pick four\'s and pick three\'s on the derby.  Unfortunately, I did not bet a superfecta as it appeared to be the best bet of the day as long as you liked the 13 and the 2.

I watched dozens of old derbies all month and never saw one like this one and don\'t remember one in last 25 years.

At those odds, Barbaro was a toss for me in win position.  I did like BC second but had him with LR, BD and AP.

I may make  a stand against CAL horses at CD from now on.  Sure I will lose a few derbies but I think CAL horses struggle with CD.  

I\'ve already forgotten this year\'s loss and will concentrate in future years on spreading big time in exotics to protect for those crazy scenarios.