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Messages - TreadHead

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1
Ask the Experts / Re: McPeek Got F&#KED Yesterday. Inside Job- Mystik Dan Now OUT
« on: November 03, 2025, 08:56:49 AM »
Same story with White Abarrio, connex are saying he\'s never missed a day of training and is 100% sound.  They were not given any explanation until Sunday morning, per a bloodhorse article.

2
Ask the Experts / Re: McPeek Got F&#KED Yesterday. Inside Job- Mystik Dan Now OUT
« on: November 01, 2025, 02:38:50 PM »
The connections of Arizona Blaze just indicated on the feed that they had no idea why the vets scratched their horse either.

3
Ask the Experts / Oh boy...NYRA
« on: August 11, 2025, 01:21:23 PM »
https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/news/statement-from-the-stewards-regarding-race-12-on-saturday-at-saratoga/

R12 was run at 1 1/16 instead of 1/18

4
Ask the Experts / Re: Matt Winn CD 8th Burnie's revenge
« on: June 08, 2025, 06:06:44 AM »
Also of note, there is a non-jackpot pk5 carryover of 241k in the late pk5 at CD

5
Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
« on: May 17, 2025, 07:41:19 PM »
IMO it\'s the most ridiculous thing I\'ve ever seen, more impressive than Alex.  The length and amount of contact, and the lengths back he was after it was finally done, I didn\'t think there was any possible way he was going to win that race.  The only thing I can think of that was even close was Caracortado winning a 6.5F T down the hill when Trevor called him done \"not today\" when he was dead last a long way coming out of the dirt crossing.

6
Ask the Experts / Re: Whip it good
« on: May 15, 2025, 07:13:59 AM »
Would the public ask to give the past a slip.

Step on a crack

7
Ask the Experts / Re: Well Done/Post Parade/Post-Mortem/They Stole my Track
« on: May 04, 2025, 11:43:20 AM »
I would encourage you to go back and re-watch the beginning of that race, Burnham Square with and incredibly dirty and dangerous ride, broke squarely and was then taken on an immediate left hand turn that first results in trouble for both Journalism (8) and Luxor (7), and then after disposing of them he continues undaunted further to the left where he puts Daytona (6) into American Promise (5).  Probably lucky someone wasn\'t seriously hurt.

Too often start of race antics like this are not placed under any scrutiny.  This was deliberate and intentional, clear as day, and it makes no sense why if the same thing happens in the stretch there is a DQ but out of the gate you can do whatever you want.

8
Ask the Experts / Re: Turf rail
« on: May 03, 2025, 04:47:16 PM »
Manny is forgiven, but would have been much better if that 9 had won.  He ran too good to lose.

9
Ask the Experts / Re: Turf rail
« on: May 03, 2025, 03:22:13 PM »
Truly a shame Manny wasted that late run by Test Score by diving inside like that.  Surprised he doesn\'t know better, Jose clearly did.

10
Ask the Experts / Re: Baffert Pace, Bobby the Weasel, Race Reassessment and Silver Charm Igniting the Review
« on: May 02, 2025, 07:25:43 AM »
Not to mention, we are almost guaranteed mud/slop now, with over an inch of rain expected starting after sundown Friday and consistently raining all thru the day Sat.

with that much rain, have to wonder if most of the turf races will come off.  And those that stay on, good luck handicapping that mess.

11
Ask the Experts / Re: Rodriguez out, Baeza In
« on: May 01, 2025, 04:38:04 PM »
foot bruise

12
Ask the Experts / Re: Baffert Pace
« on: May 01, 2025, 09:08:29 AM »
I completely agree with you, if you look at Bull\'s worktab it\'s quite clear Baffert has him on a dead send mission.  Would be a little surprised if Rod duels the entire way, but it may come down to who gets away the cleanest. Understanding Bull let a maiden get in front of him last race, who they likely didn\'t see as a threat at all and didn\'t care, the training pattern indicates that\'s not going to happen this time.  Say what you like about the other speeds in the race, but betting against Baffert to get a horse on the lead when he wants to seems risky.

Not to mention the fact that mud/slop now seems like a real possibility.  Another incredible Derby weekend ruined with weather, been epidemic the last 20 years.  The amt of rain they are predicting Fri/Sat means high probability for an aberrant turf course, likely with the dreaded dead rail.  Maybe it\'s time to move the Derby to Santa Anita?

13
Ask the Experts / Re: 02X pattern- please revisit
« on: April 28, 2025, 12:09:33 PM »
Will provide an opinion:

0-2-x chances increase as the 3 races become more compact.  There is plenty of time/spacing here.  They also are more common in 6-8F horses than long distance routers.  And more common in older horses with established patterns/verified tops.

So the possibility of an 0-2-x here is lower than normal, some might argue much lower than normal.

With 2-3 yr olds, the more common problem is \"too fast too soon\" which has less to do with a pattern and more to do with a race that was too fast in the absolute sense.  Im sure TGJB will have a more detailed look at this in the seminar.

14
Ask the Experts / Re: Grande
« on: April 25, 2025, 09:38:21 PM »
Grande worked this morning at KEE, outside Valentinian

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo5kD3C7ig8

15
Ask the Experts / Re: This Derbiy Field is LOADED with Early Speed - Track Kitchen
« on: April 20, 2025, 09:59:57 AM »
Side Note: I got breakfast at the Keeneland track kitchen (open to public) last weekend and it was every bit as good as anything you can get in a restaurant at less than half the price.  Highly recommend if you\'ve never been, and it\'s also a fun walk thru the backstretch to get back to the gate.

6.50 for a giant plate of scrambled eggs, sausage or bacon, biscuits and gravy (perfectly done), and home fries.

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