Outwork 's wood figure

[dannyboy135]

I\'m not a figure maker and I have complete confidence in thorograph ( use their figures exclusively) but having tremendous difficulty accepting outwork\' wood number.
Don\'t buy it tgjb

[johnnym]

Stupid question were can one go to the see all the numbers given to the preps?
Thanks

[dannyboy135]

The demeanor of many board posters is incredible.  Try reading the Thoroubred daily news
I post very rarely because each time I do I get insulted. But my guess is I\'ve bred, raised, raced, and sold more horses than 99% of the critics
\"Stupid question or stupid answer?

[mlnolan00]

Ditto.  I\'m an equal opportunity Sheets user but JB gets big props for the TDN Derby Top 12 List exposure.  Been checking out and saving those PDFs every week.

Hope it\'s OK to post the link to today\'s edition with the info http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn160414.pdf  TG hyperlinks for the 12 horses on Finley\'s list begin on pg 9

[TempletonPeck]

I think you totally misinterpreted that, I took his post to mean \"Stupid question (of mine), but where can I find this info?\"

[dannyboy135]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stupid question were can one go to the see all the
> numbers given to the preps?
> Thanks


My apologies. Guess my thin skin got me again.lol

[mlnolan00]

Ehh, tomato, tomahtoe. The man working the gas station counter bought my coffee and granola bar this morning and told me to pay it forward so don\'t mind doing anything kind today, even something as small as sharing a link to help my fellow neighbor.

Good luck y\'all.  Looking to make some money at Keeneland tomorrow with the City Zip colt Peppermint Zip getting first turf in R5, and Reload and Shug (\"win one for Dinny\") in the G1.  I rarely bet him but Eoin\'s 8-1 looks sneaky in R6 given its crazy fitness regimen after the first start and Todd\'s #9 at ML evens has me thinking Jerry\'s acclimatization angle might be in effect.

[miff]

Dan,

Think Cupid\'s TG fig is way more tough to swallow than Outworks. The slowest fig for Cupid I\'ve seen is 3 points faster than his TG fig.

Sometimes figs don\'t seem to make sense.

Mike

[mlnolan00]

He can win on Saturday I guess and pace scenario might favor him once again, but I\'m not a big Cupid fan in general and am secretly hoping he airs in AR Derby because the grey/Baffert/Bodemeister/Pharaoh angles will make him a popular horse and he\'s an absolutely toss for me in KYD.

Tapit is so sketchy for the Derby to begin with but this guy just doesn\'t seem as \"special\" as even maybe The Factor.  DRF are fawning over him but I tend to trust how slow he is on TG/Sheets.  And it\'s not like Cherry Wine\'s Bluegrass really flatters the Rebel much.

More than anything, that 7lb weight swing is the pits for Cupid plus he has now gives 4lb to Whitmore, Dazzling Gem (who actually now drops 4lb off LA Derby), etc.  

Gettsburg is likewise slow, overrated, in a bad post and will get some tote action so he\'s an easy dismissal too.

I like Dazzling Gem especially at 12-1 ML plus he\'s already beaten a few of these inclu #5 at 8-1 ML.  Whitmore is OK on TG and I understand why people fancy him but he wants to hang a bit too much for my taste.

[mjellish]

If Cupid ran much faster than that then what did Whitmore run?  He was much wider on both turns and carried a few lb\'s more than Cupid.  There were at least 2 other decent 1 1/16 races that day too, including one with American Pioneer and one with Unbridled Outlaw.  FWIW I think the Cupid fig is about right.

That being said, I like the way Whitmore weaved out, in and out again in traffic in the Rebel.  He listened to his jock and went where and when when asked.  That\'s very helpful in the Ky Derby. But I agree that he hangs or waits on horses.  He also flopped back to his wrong lead at the end of the Rebel, which I haven\'t heard anyone point out.  Tough to say if he was gassed or green.  I would say gassed if I had to.  But IMO he still should have won the a Rebel. Curious to see how he runs at 1 1/8th.

[Tavasco]

Mlnolan,

Nice to see you back and this time in the midst of a potential firestorm. Yet you make several great points so succinctly. Love that you consider crowd psychology with humor in PP1.

Since you are somewhat of a pedigree expert it is reassuring when I see you doubt Tapit as a legit classic influence, as do I.

Cupid is probably overrated. He had it all his way in the Rebel yet Dazzling Gem disappointed me in La., even though resilient to get 3rd. Maybe its Gunrunner whose #\'s are misleading.

Cupid is not yet a proven need-to-lead front runner. In the Rebel the first he looked like a classic Baffert trainee. Note - he is a May foal? and now his sheet doesn\'t suggest a bounce candidate after the # TGJB gave him in the last.

I\'m expecting Dazzling Gem to contest at least the first 6F and that could create chaos. I\'ll be cheering for American Pioneer who almost caught the Gem @ 1 mile in their first meeting!

Gettysburg, reminded even trainers winning at a 30%+ clip lose two out of three.

Good Luck

[TGJB]

If you believe in adjusting for weight and ground Cupids number is 100% definitely right. He got something like the fourth or fifth best figure that day, and they\'re all back Saturday.

What\'s the problem with the Outwork figure? The total range of possibilities there was one point, by memory. Again, if you account for ground.

[johnnym]

Nice meeting you as well.
With such an impressive resume in the business,one would hope they would share that knowledge.
In the future if I ever decide to ask you a question again,I will word it more delicately as I would not want to cause a rise in your blood pressure.
Good Luck to you.
John

[miff]

Regardless of what Cupid runs on Sat his last TG fig is no where near reflective of his on track performance that day. Just look at the race carefully start to finish esp the start, final turn, last 1/16th.TG fig inflated by lack of ground loss and 115.Look at the time of the Upstart race that day(know all about Upstart weight and ground loss)

Outwork\'s Wood highlights ground loaded.Slowest Wood in many moons on the clock but he did all the running,the pace was very fast and contested.Surprised with the slow maiden slug finishing second that JB made the race that fast.Beyer and TF adjusted are not far off what JB has(both like TG 1.50)

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Both cases IMHO are prime examples of your eyes interpreting how the figure was earned. I agree with your assessment of Cupid\'s visual being more impressive than his figure. That doesn\'t mean I won\'t be against him tomorrow. The flip side being the visual of the Wood is pathetic and Outwork is not even a derby consideration for moi.

 I keep re watching the Wood and trying to make a legitimate excuse for Shagaf, breaking slow, getting stopped cold on the turn and hitting traffic a second time.
This one intrigues me, bred to run all day, athletic enough to get tactical position,IMHO as bad as this race was he should have overcome his adversity for a better showing.If he got that discouraged in the Wood it does not bode well for May 7th. The good news is he should be 30/1 now and remains a tri and super consideration here if he trains well up to the race.

The way Kiaran is going it wouldn\'t surprise me to see Chad end up with a lot more Shadwell\'s?

Oklahoma opened for training this morning, only 97 days to opening day at the Spa!