Outwork 's wood figure

[jbelfior]

Hi Frank:
Shagaf may be bred to run all day but visually (at least so far),he doesn\'t look it.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Frank,

Gonna be interesting derby for sure. Gigantic,so to speak, differences in several preps re speed/performance figs from the major services. Tosses at one service will be A\'s on others.

Still think correctly guessing Mohaymen a key to cashing verticals.

.....charge!

Mike

[bstaubs22]

Hard for me to take Destin seriously, we\'ve seen this before from the barn. See Dream of Julia and Materiality to name a few, that is big figs in FLA that don\'t seem to happen again anywhere else. Let\'s not forget this was the same horse who started in NOLA and was beaten by Mo Tom and Tom\'s Ready. How in the world was Destin able to achieve this fig off just 4 weeks and staying at the same exact distance as his last race. Typically when you see an increase or decrease in distance that can explain a jump up but almost 8 full points, COME ON MAN!!

[miff]

Destin\'s last is very fast at all the reliable services. Outworks Wood can be seen as some type of confirmation of Tampa race. Quirky Tampa surface and 8 weeks spacing very tough read for Destin in spite of TAP\'s good work with layoffs similar to this.

[bstaubs22]

Yes, by all accounts the only colt with a negative number. Brings up an earlier point that now Trojan Nation had a superior move forward? Lots of confusion about this crop.

[miff]

The margin of victory, Outwork vs Trojan Nation does not come close to telling the story of the Wood, Outwork way better than head better

[bstaubs22]

I think TGJB brought this up on earlier discussions about pace not determining final fig. I do agree with you that it was the better race by far after pressing very strong fractions.

[Flighted Iron]

Not to be overly contentious, but it\'s not uncommon for young horses to make huge leaps forward. From any barn.

Not too dissimilar from U2\'s \"Angel of Harlem\". It was a cold, wet december day when we touched the ground at JFK ( actually La Guardia). First timer won and ran a 16. Next race in a stake back at the four county town he won running an 18. Next start going from 6 to 7 furlongs he explodes to an 8. I suppose one could say it was the distance change, but i wouldn\'t.

[ringato3]

Mike,

Really not relevant how much better Outwork was than Trojan Nation.  Trojan Nation a tremendously slow horse.  Both are ugly tosses and think both will finish in bottom 8 of Derby horses if they run.

Very curious as to why you think Mohaymen is a key to the verticals.  Horse was disgusting last time out, as have most of Kiaran\'s horses been lately.  Horse not gonna be a short price, at least not less than 7-1 or so.  When was the last horse to win the Derby off a performance as bad as Mohaymen\'s was?

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Looking at it thru different peep hole perhaps. Outwork was wide early/late into a vicious quarter and a contested pace all the way.Several services have the race fast. The suck up slug,like the one behind him,frequently overachieve when vicious paces are in front of them,sometimes beating or coming close to horses that tower over them in a fairly run race. Outwork may be a serious horse,is highly thought of by TAP barn,I\'m not a fan for derby off that gut wrencher going 10f and looking a bit like he wants to be on the lead or fighting for it.

As far as Moyhaymen, could write a page why his last horrific performance PERHAPS deserves a wet track/shoe mulligan.His races prior to Fl derby just too solid to dismiss him unless you are of the opionin that his lack of physical attributes have already put him over the top, I\'m conflicted as of now. Hate getting beat by fast horses, no problem getting beat by a slow slug.I know his training in Florida was purposely managed to the lighter side.

Since Moyhaymen should be one of the top 5 choices, using or tossing could pay well. If he reverts to his best, he could win.

Mike

[ringato3]

Mike

Fair enough.  We aren\'t that far off.  I don\'t disagree that Outwork could be a nice horse, but not a derby horse, which is all I care about with regards to him right now.

Looking at TG figs in the Thoroughbred daily news is confusing and certainly debatable.  (I am sure host won\'t agree...)

So, Cupid\'s win last race is on par with Mohaymen\'s no-show and Gun-Runner\'s win.  Hmm....   No thanks, not buying that at all.  

Mor Spirit\'s sheet a complete mess.  No explanation - up, down, up, down.  HAs long been a toss for me, but technically at his best, he is a contender.

Exaggerator should be favored if you were basing the derby odds purely on TG sheets. Co-fastest with solid spacing, only 2 points of develpment from 2 year old year, with a late developing sire.  You should just have to forget that the wet track may have helped.  (or get a wet track derby day)

Gonna be interesting.

Rob

[ajkreider]

It\'s a quirky strip, but the form of the Tampa race has held up very very well. Two have come out to win Grade 1s.  Even Star Hill and Tale of S\'avall got closer to the winner in those than they did to Destin.  We\'ll see if Riker makes any noise this weekend. (Zulu didn\'t do much to flatter Mohaymen, by contrast.)  

Point is that the fig for Destin seems well-earned.  Whether he can run back to it in Churchill is another matter, but the large break makes me think they\'re trying something new.  Given their history in May, that\'s probably not a bad idea.

[mjellish]

So I\'m not trying to be a knob here, but Rob what do you mean when you say:

\"So, Cupid\'s win last race is on par with Mohaymen\'s no-show and Gun-Runner\'s win. Hmm.... No thanks, not buying that at all.\"

Because if you are saying what I think you are saying - that Cupid ran faster, then what did Whitmore, Creator, Cut A Corner, & Sudden Breaking News run in the Rebel?  If you make Cupid\'s number faster you have to make all theirs faster too.  That doesn\'t seem to make sense to me based on what I am seeing on the TG\'s for tomorrow at Oaklawn.  You gonna make Whitmore the fastest 3 year old in the country?  Plus, if you make the Rebel faster on a pretty straight forward day then you probably have to make American Pioneer\'s number and Unbridled Outlaw\'s number faster too, or de-couple those 1 1/16th races on the same day from the Rebel.  And then what do you do with Upstart\'s race?  That was 1 1/16th distance too, also run same day as the Rebel. You\'ve got older horses in there with more form to go on.  Do you de-couple that one from the Rebel too, all just to make Cupid and everyone else in the Rebel faster?

If you are saying Mohaymen\'s number should be slower than it is, then Nyquist had to run slower too.  How big of an off race can you have him running and still winning the FL Derby?  To my eye I guess it depends upon what you think of the ones that ran 2nd (Majesto) and 3rd (Fellowship).  You think they ran off races too and took 2nd and 3rd?  If so, how much slower could they have run and still have the rest of the figures make sense?

If you are saying Gun Runner\'s LA Derby should be faster than it is, I could maybe see making that argument.  But you still have some problems to reconcile with the horses that ran behind him.  I could maybe see arguing the LA Derby is a point faster.  Any more than that and then you have to have a couple moving forward or running numbers that really don\'t make sense, like Mo Tom for example who had a ton of trouble.

It\'s one thing to say you question a figure.  I get that.  I question figures all the time.  But then you have to be able to back that up, and what you say needs to make sense.  

So what did you mean?

[ringato3]

alright MJ,

Here is what I am saying.

I have heard TGJB (and Rags guys) say ground loss is simply geometry.  And I guess it is, but I have been using sheets a long time and I can smell a phony ground loss loaded figure a mile away.  And similarly can see a sheets figure that understates actual performance on the track.  

Mohaymen ran MUCH worse than a \"TG-5\".  He was empty on the turn and his ground loss was mostly irrelevant.  Anybody that thinks ground loss hurt him in that race needs to find a better excuse. Mike says he can think of a few.  Maybe the wet track he is bred for or maybe the disgusting run the entire Kiaran barn has been on.  But as I posted earlier today, somebody please point to a recent derby winner that ran as badly as Mohaymen in their last prep before they won the Derby.

As I stated on the board right after Cupid\'s win, his race was MUCH better than the 5 he earned. How many horses blow the start, gun through to the front anyway, seemingly bump into the rail or at least swerve badly towards it in the stretch, get passed, then rebreak after having set a fast pace.  He MIGHT lose tomorrow to SuddenbreakingNews or Whitmore, but the \"much faster\" TG figs they have earned do NOT reflect what happened on the race track when they ran against Cupid.  

As for GunRunner\'s 5.  I just think the race was graded too slow.  Not to mention the fact that he showed tactical speed in the race, which was new to his game and IMO often a sign of a horse rounding into form.

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

A TG 3 for Cupid would be ballpark, he received a TG 5 1/2. You can do that day\'s routes six ways to Sunday and not arrive at 5 1/2. It\'s not relevant to me what the horses behind Cupid would then have to get as those figs are ground loaded.

Mike