Florida Derby Rumors

[boardedup]

I feel like I can\'t make this mistake yet again this year, I swore off ever betting a pletcher in the derby after last year...but I was admittedly impressed today.  Hopefully next week brings some form of clarity but the way this year has gone so far, it\'s not likely.

As to the favorite today, I thought Gunny looked thin & washed out on the track.  He wasn\'t winning today even if his camp had attempted to..

 How confident did Johnny V look/act at the top of the stretch today?  Did he even go to the whip once?  If he did I didn\'t see it. That was pretty telling all things considered.

FWIW I tossed Gun completely and paid for it in exotics (I played the 4/1/2,8,10) but from were I\'m sitting today, I\'ll be doing it again next time out..

[Silver Charm]

What happens when you don\'t feel well and decide to go work out to \"sweat it out\". Quite possibly you end up sicker! I\'m about 90% sure of this but I believe Gunnys Camp had a string of tables 50 feet long on the left side if Ten Palms Room Holy Bull Day. Assuming the same crew was to be present for Florida Derby Day people make decisions that other right minded people in the Biz wouldn\'t. Perhaps similar to when Jimmy Jerkins scratched Quality Road before the Derby and found him being moved to someone else\'s barn. People do dumb things. The same network of Intel that communicated Classic Empire wouldn\'t train is what delivered this, while the other \"Fake News\" reported they discovered a foot abscess as the excuse for the poor effort after the race. And that was considered to he 100% verified truth because well, someone wrote or blogged it...

[trackjohn]

I was there...It was a table of 82 (longest table I\'ve ever seen)...As the day went on it became more difficult (in the area where they were) to wagering or even get around...My guess?  Well over 200

[jbelfior]

Derby winner is running next Saturday....and probably on the west coast.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Fairmount1]

Always Dreaming closes in the future pool today at $6.10-1 behind only McCracken at $5.90-1.  I saw the odds mid-afternoon but didn\'t recall this one being single digit odds.

The total amount bet on him was $33,859.75 and the total pool was $294k+.  (Now at Fairmount Park I can\'t bet $.25 increments to win so I\'m still trying to figure that out.)  Regardless this pool is nothing compared to Derby Day.....but will AD be higher or lower than $6.10-1 on Derby Day?  Is this a little bit of recency effect?  Or was this someone who took a big swing believing they had information most didn\'t with a figure from yesterday?  If you are curious, the exacta pool reflects him as the clear second choice in almost every instance also.  

With 4 major preps still remaining, 6-1 seems awfully low for a horse today that will likely be 10-1 Derby Day as jimbo is completely right.....Pletcher horses are very cold in the Derby win pool on Derby Day last few years.  

It is getting serious now.....I\'ll be at the Bluegrass next Saturday and Ark Derby in two weeks.  Anyone that will be at either one, if you want to talk horses and/or have a beer, send me a pm.

[BitPlayer]

He was already down to single digits last night (7 or 8-1).  I think it is a recency effect, plus a lot of the talking heads touting him.  Surprising to me.  The Beyer isn\'t that fast. I\'m awful at guessing TG numbers in Florida, but I\'d guess this was higher than zero.

On the flip side, who else would they bet?  The next four in the betting were Gunnevera, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, and Malagacy.

[pizzalove]

Jimbo,

I agree with what you are saying.  The track wasn\'t really speed biased.  But do you think the Florida Derby had a slow early pace?

Pat