Belmont Blathering -- Somewhere between Trivia and Science

[richiebee]

After my earlier impassioned plea for deployment of the scientific method, let
me attempt to lead by example, starting with the basics and resorting for the
most part only to the absolutely free TG archives.

Starting real simple:

Column A:

(1)Probable starters who ran in Derby and Preakness: Classic Empire, Looking at
Lee.

(2)Probable starters who ran in Derby only: Gormley, Irap, J Boys Echo, Patch, Tapwrit.

(3)Probable starters who ran in Preakness but not Derby: Senior Investment, Multiplier, Conquest Mo Money.

(4)Probable starters who did not run in Derby or Preakness: Epicharis, Meantime, Twisted Tom.

Column B:

(1) Average number of 3YO races prior to Belmont for winners between 2010-2016: 4

(2) In the last 10 Belmont Stakes, five were won by runners who competed in the
Kentucky Derby. In the 17 Belmonts run in the 21st Century, 11 were won by
runners who competed in the Kentucky Derby. The six winners during that time who
did not compete in the Derby also did not compete in the Preakness (see below).

(3) Since 2000, 31 runners have come into the Belmont after competing in the
Derby and the Preakness, with three of those -- Point Given, Afleet Alex
and American Pharaoh -- emerging victorious in the Belmont. All three of these
took the Belmont with a negative TG# (see below) and paid an average mutuel of
slightly above 4.20.

(4) Since 2000, no runner has skipped (or been excluded from) the Derby, run in
the Preakness, and won the Belmont.

(5) Since 2000, eight Belmont winners have raced in the Derby, skipped the
Preakness, and won the Belmont.

(6)Number of Belmont winners Between 2000-2016 who competed in neither Ky Derby
NOR Preakness: 6 (Sarava, Da Tara, Rags to Riches, Drosselmeyer, Ruler on Ice,
and Tonalist).

(7) The average win mutuel on the 11 Belmont winners who competed in the Derby:
19.10.

(8)The average win mutuel of the six Belmont winners who did not compete in the Derby or Preakness: 55.40.

(9) The only Derby WINNER to win the Belmont since 2000... American Pharaoh.

(10) Since 2000, six of 17 Belmonts have been won by high profile trainers who
have had very little Derby success: Pletcher (2),* Asmussen, Clement, Mott,
McLaughlin.

(11) For Gormley fans, the impact of California runners in the Belmont since
2010: AmPhar wins in 2015, Paynter is second in 2012, Cal Chrome is fourth in
2014. The only other Cal based Belmont runners since 2010: Make Music for Me
(10th in 2010); Dave in Dixie (11th in 2010); Trojan Nation (10th in 2016);
Exaggerator (11th in 2016).

(12) Hot Belmont sires 2010-2016 (Sires with multiple Belmont trifecta
finishes): Tapit rules. Two winners (Creator/Tonalist) a runner up (Frosted) and
of course third place Lani. Curlin has winner Palace Malice and third place
finisher Keen Ice. Awesome Again has two second place finishers, Oxbow and
Paynter.

Scratching the surface Thorographically: In the seven Belmonts contested since
2010, 81 runners have competed, 14 runners ran new tops, with four of these
winning the Belmont: Creator, Tonalist, Palace Malice and Ruler on Ice.

Average winning TG number for Belmonts run since 2010: close to TG 0.964
(i.e. slightly faster than TG 1).

Thorograph Negative Numbers for Belmont winners (since 2000):
-2², Point Given; -1², Rags to Riches;
-1¹, Birdstone; -1, Summer Bird;
-0², Afleet Alex and American Pharaoh.

After merging Column A with Column B, let me gingerly place one foot on the
TAPWRIT bandwagon. I do not know if I am welcome because before the Derby I was
calling him \"TAPwrat\".

1) Pletcher in the Belmont has been better than Pletcher in the Derby.

2) Tapwrit raced in Derby, skipped Preakness, a spacing which has produced
eight of the last 17 Belmont winners.

3) Tapwrit is BY Tapit, who has sired the winner of two of the last three
Belmonts. Both Creator and Tonalist ran new tops in the Belmont (as did Tapit
product Lani), allowing one to arguably draw the conclusion that Tapwrit should
get the Belmont distance.

4) My memory is that Tapwrit\'s TG# earned in the Tampa Bay Derby will make him
arguably one of the faster competitors coming into the Belmont, TG wise.

5) Tapwrit will have 4 starts as a 3YO coming into the Belmont (see the first
entry under Column B above).

Important note: I did not undertake this study looking to \"make a case for\"
Tapwrit, but after reviewing the data which I extracted, Tapwrit \"checks a lot
of the boxes\".

---------
*The new Pletcher spin on his Derby record is rather interesting. Instead of
saying that he is 2/52 or whatever the number, he is now saying that he is 2/17,
meaning he has been in the Derby for 17 years and had two winners. Ok. (He is
also saying he is undefeated with Derby favorites).

[big18741]

On the bottom Tapwrit\'s dam sire is Successful Appeal(not much help there) but the 2nd and 3rd dam sires are Hawkster and Seattle Slew.

There are some that come in faster but none of them have to run back to those tops at 12f\'s.

I like Tapwrit to at least pair up but with fourteen or more a possibility the draw is a big deal.

The two interesting pedigrees on the bottom are Twisted Tom and Epicharis who also come in with the most rest.

Twisted Tom has back to back to back Belmont winners with dam sire Thunder Gulch,2nd dam by Seattle Slew,3rd dam by Stage Door Johnny.
3rd dam Class Play was a Coaching Club 12 furlong winner.

Those are two that could run new tops at the distance.
Twisted Tom might be really slow(haven\'t seen his figures)and we know Epicharis needs to jump up a few points at a much shorter price.

Great betting race if you can get CE out of the money.

[Chas04]

this is pretty awesome research. def a pros pro. thx in advance 4 all ur hard work in piecing together this valuable puzzle.

[Furious Pete]

What about Irish War Cry? Seems to check a lot of those same boxes, and he\'s faster, better, smarter.

Proven in NY, too, and one got to be willing to excuse his effort in the Derby for at least a bit - after all he was one of the few horses that actually were a factor in the race, for a while.

I got too tempted by the 9/1\'s offered (still available: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/belmont-stakes/winner ), fully aware that he might not even show up. The bet I made is that IF he shows up, and by my handicapping of the trainers comments it looks like he\'s about to talk himself into it, it would be with a very live horse - that has a much bigger shot to win this than 10 %.

(And if he doesn\'t show up, that just means that the trainer didn\'t like his chances from what he sees in the mornings.. Might as well lose like that, from time to time. I think the odds compensate the risk.)

I mean, Epicharis at 4/1.. That doesn\'t exactly scream \"value\".

Classic Empire, a horse that didn\'t even want to run earlier in the winter, who had the latest prep coming into the derby and now is coming off a GRUELING effort in the Preakness (much the best that day) - running further than he ever has or ever will again - one can bet against that..

Looking at Lee? No way.. I hate deep closers stretching out. And he too has followed the exact same schedule as Classic Empire.

Who\'s left? Not many.

Yeah Tapwrit is a logical choice. But is it too logical?

Irish War Cry SHOULD be 2/1 or 5/2 if he get\'s there (not saying he will be).

(Not prepared to fight for this one though, just my two cents, there you have it. One additional forecast I can make is that I think the TG analysis/seminar and/or \"Sheet Theory\" will do much better in this race, than it did in the Derby. Wouldn\'t worry too much about the \"Elephant Dung Juice\", in this race. And hey, you got your redemption in the Preakness, anyway)

[hellersorr]

And, in addition to being Thorographically fast, he would have five weeks rest, which all the young swells (Motion, Pletcher, Chad Brown, Jerry Brown) like.

[jerry]

Multiplier. Poised to finally make his forward move. Just hope they enter him.

[jbelfior]

Thought he already did that in the Illinois Derby. Trippi on the dam side concerns me. You will be handsomely rewarded if you\'re right.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

My compliments to Richiebee for his effort and a great start to the Belmont Stakes 2017 discussion. A concern that many of us might have is that there are no 12F TG #\'s for the Belmont Contenders. That said, imo, there is a telling difference between a collapsing on the finish line TG 0 and a TG 1 closing at two jumps to one just behind him when projecting another 400-500 yards. While some purists can fall back on a generalization that the number is the number. The upcoming Belmont s/b easy just look for the smallest number, or the shortest odds. For the technical handicappers there is the project a number based on a series of numbers strategy. All, imo, legitimate methods for speculation, yet I\'m not convince its scientific.

By the way, do Tapit\'s offspring have any particular look or appearance?

Scientific Method

Scientific Method For Beginners

An outline of the general steps involved in a Scientific Method as an ongoing process.

Iteration or Loop
Make Observations
Athletes (Human & Equine) that excel in sprints generally fail to do the same in marathons and vice versa. Picturing Usain Bolt standing next to Olynpic 5,000 meter gold medalist Mo Farrar 5\'9\" 60kg The sports world more and more is about specialization e.g. money ball.

Think of Interesting Questions
Is Belmont success a function of physique?
Is Belmont success a function of training regimen?

Formulate Hypothesis
The probability of winning a 1+1/2 mile horse race i.e., the Belmont Stakes is enhanced by specific body types and racing habits.


     Refine, Alter, Expand or Reject Hypotheses
      Woody Stephens excelled in the Belmont Stakes not unlike Bob Baffert in the Ky Derby. Suggests what trainers do matters.

Develop Testable Predictions
The more accomplished sprinters will be the least accomplished marathoners

Gather Data To Test Predictions
2016 (first glance)
1 Creator, while he has never sprinted I don\'t think I\'m reaching to assume he would be in deep @ 6F.
2. Destin, started career sprinting and with some success, proceeding to excel at roughly a mile with TG #\'s declining with distance or wear & tear.
3. Lani started his career @ 1+1/8m and even I don\'t have enough imagination that he could sprint at all.
4. GOVERNOR MALIBU began with a couple of 2nd place finishes sprinting while steadily improved with increased distances his Bel was arguably a bounce following a top.
5. STRADIVARI ho hum in intial race a sprint then got immediately good with additional distance.
6. BRODY’S CAUSE never sprinted, ran TG 3 as a 2 y/o but never improved
7. CHERRY WINE never sprinted another who could have bounced off a top in the Belmont.
8. GETTYSBURG never sprinted yet was a front running router.Seemingly just to slow vs his Belmont field.
9. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS one of the few sprint winners in the field albeit a slow race vs lesser competition. Late closing running style atypical of sprint winners.
10. TROJAN NATION slow and inept at any distance
11. EXAGGERATOR - once ran a visually impressive 7f race @ 2 y/o then got fast as distances increased.
12. SEEKING THE SOUL - showed promise sprinting in his first race bounced then improved @ 1M only to flop on short rest in the marathon.
13. FOREVER D’ORO - a second by Dallas Stewart suggests he was just winging it and hoping on a couple of horses to really junp up for some reason, they did not.

Develop General Theories
Most of the 3 y/o sprinters have been culled out by prepping for TC prep races. Miler types can  slip thru into the Kentucky Derby by performing well on speed favoring tracks in both south Florida & California. However most will be exposed as milers in Ky. The Preakness is obligatory for derby winners an opportunity for those which did not qualify for the derby or a second chance for troubled derby trippers.
A lot of also-rans from the 2016 derby were sent on to run in the Belmont suggesting plodders or late runners are expected, by connections, to be more likely to win at longer distances.

[RICH]

IWC a complete throw out off that line as far as I\'m concerned, cooked

[Gerard]

CE has emptied the tank three times in six weeks and still hasn\'t broken through his 2yo top. Horses that ran well in the Ark/KD/Preakness triple have a good record hitting the exacta (SJ, Curlin, And AP), but ran closer to their Ark derby number. Those three also faced smaller fields in the Belmont. Bode ran well in all three races also, however BB decided to freshen him after the Preakness. Looking for CE to run back to his Ark derby number here.

[Bet Twice]

I could see him moving forward but tough to see him moving enough to be competitive here off short rest.  Maybe a piece but tough to support on the win end.

[jimbo66]

Alright Rich,

I hear the definitive statement.  But why?

The horse ran big in the first Florida start when he trounced Classic Empire.  Regressed badly in the next outing off the big number.  Then got rest and ran even bigger in the Wood.  As many predicted, he bounced in the Derby, but he was against it, racing wide against a strong inside bias.

Now gets 5 weeks.  If his trainer decides to run him, that would be a strong move by a strong trainer, especially in light of the fact that he has NJ connections and the big goal (besides the Derby of course), is the Haskell.  

if he runs, he is very very dangerous.   And he won\'t be a particularly short price.  Won\'t be long, but 4-1 to 9-2 seems about right.

Jim

[sekrah]

Looking forward to seeing the other patterns from the new shooters (Twisted Tom might be interesting) but on first glance, it\'s going to be tough to find a better looking one than Tapwrit.  Major contender.

[Bet Twice]

Agree with Jimbo on this.  Tough to toss given that number power coupled with the rest and trainer intent.  That said, would have a tough time keying as well - would not be surprised if he won or finished up the track.  A wildcard.

[TGAB]

But a wildcard that can win the race if he runs.