Cat Scratch Fever

[Silver Charm]

Sweet Catomine seems to be headed for the Santa Anita Derby now that she has proven she has Stranglehold on the West Coast Fillies.

[gvido]

That makes two slow ones in a row. Fractions: :232, :482, 1:14, 1:381, 1:442    doesn\'t inspire confidence. Maybe the fig comes back big, but I kinda doubt it.

[Silver Charm]

You may be correct but the cynics on this Board (certainly not me lol) have to at least be a little consistent. If a horse comes out and runs big we say the horse ran too fast too soon. If a horse only runs twice we say the horse hasn\'t run enough. If a horse or filly runs modestly fast after having run fast at two, we are concerned about not returning to its two year old top.

She came home in 30 and the west coast crop is looking weaker everyday. Some west coast trainers are almost becoming desperate.

Zito is probably sleeping better every night.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Don\'t count out your idol yet either. I think hes got at least one pretty good horse that could move right on up when it counts.

I think Sweet Cat gets a shot at the Santa Anita Derby with the current field outlook. I\'m skeptical about her being a Derby horse, but one time in April to give it a chance. Sure, I agree with that.

I think she\'s being handled perfectly. She came back well short of her best, but good enough to handle the weak fillies she was spotted against.

IMO, this race was much better than the first race back. If it wasn\'t faster (and I think it probably was), it\'s because of the slow pace. The filly that finished second is OK.

She closed well off that slow pace. Had she had a little more pace in front of her, she might have put up an even faster figure and won off even bigger.

I think she will continue to move forward. To me this is textbook perfect handling.

The obvious problem is that she\'s a filly. Even though fillies are usually ahead of colts \"development wise\" at this point (which gives them some chance in the Derby), I think a couple of the colts have already put up figures that suggest that by the time May rolls around they are going to be pretty good.

The West coast colts look pretty dreadful though. So she may have a pretty good shot in SA Derby.

The main contention might be Lukas\'s Once Wild whose chances in his last race may have been compromised by the rail not being the place to be.

[Saddlecloth]

gvido wrote:

> That makes two slow ones in a row. Fractions: :232, :482, 1:14,
> 1:381, 1:442    doesn\'t inspire confidence. Maybe the fig comes
> back big, but I kinda doubt it.
>
>

With fractions that slow how fast could the final time be?

[miff]

Santa Anita was \"slowish\" all day on the main track yesterday.SC still is in posession of a strong burst for 3/8ths or more making her very dangerous IMO.

[NoCarolinaTony]

She circled the feild 4 wide on the turn and ran the lst Qtr in 24.1 and last 1/16 at 6.1 is not slow. The pace was slow.

Im Hoping but I\'ve Got $100 win on the filly in Poll 1 in the derby. Got my fingers crossed.

The Frankel Horse and the Zito Horses are the only other real contenders at this point.

[Michael D.]

tough to knock her performance. she ran wide tracking a slow pace and finished quite fast. corey did what he needed to do.
there is one small problem however. the filly ran two very fast races for a 2 yr old while on the shakes, and has run two average races while the spotlight has been on the cheaters. in her first race this year, she ran pretty fast early, then stopped (96,103,82 bris pace #\'s). yesterday was the other way around - she ran slow early, then fast late. can this filly run fast early AND fast late without the shakes??? tough question, but i sure wish i had gone with my instincts and bet summerly at 17-1 last month (especially since asmussen has the lab beat for now).



Post Edited (03-14-05 12:08)

[miff]

Michael D,

A very reasonable and astute observation re Canani and Sweet Catomine. I\'ve honestly had the same thoughts.

Similarly, I wonder if Schettino(1 for 44) can get Galloping Grocer back to the level I saw last summer when Schettino knew how to train. He seems to have amnesia now.

[Michael D.]

it\'s sad - handicapping the oaks future has come down to determining which trainer can cheat the best. i never convict trainers who have not been caught, but we are dealing with two confirmed cheaters here.

[Michael D.]

and the third most likely winner, sis city, is also trained by a confirmed cheater !!!



Post Edited (03-14-05 14:16)

[miff]

Dutrow, a confirmed cheater?? I missed that one.

[HP]

I can\'t imagine any of the authorities in Kentucky coming forward after the Oaks or the Derby and saying that the winner tested positive.  So what you have to do is get the stuff into the horse without getting caught.  Once you get past that, how much do you have to worry about a post-race positive?  

Not only that, but how much of a stink would they want to make BEFORE the race?  If someone generates a pre-race positive, doesn\'t that reflect negatively on the security, arrangements, etc.?

I\'ve got to believe the powers that be will protect their \"brand\" at all costs.  

In the past, I thought you could tell how a trainer\'s horses would do based on how they ran on the undercard.  After this year\'s BC, I think certain trainers may be willing to sacrifice their undercard horses for the Big One.  Another scenario to consider....

How many clients can WMerc handle down there?  Don\'t the customers get pissed at him if he goes to more than one barn for the same race?  

HP

[Silver Charm]

Harthill was found raoming the backstretch a year or two ago in the middle of the night totally unsupervised.

I am not sure but I think loaded syringes were being left in the tack room desk drawers of assistant trainers. Then he can say he never went into any horse stalls and when the assistant trainer goes in, no one even turns a eye.