Hangovers?

[HP]

Monarchos and Aptitude are two more that may have been light on preps and ran well in recent years -- if my memory serves....  

I think bad timing may be a bigger issue than the number of preps.  I could imagine that two well timed preps could do the trick.  

I don\'t like the \"fresh horse\" in the Derby tack that\'s been taken a little more lately (Read the Footnotes - Perfect Drift).  I think a horse needs to get roughed up at least a little bit on a regular schedule to do his best in the Derby.  

HP

[miff]

JB Said:

\"We\'ve already seen Afleet Alex and Sun King run really big off layoffs, and not as well the next time\"


Very true, but for what it\'s worth, Zito jogged/two minute licked Sun King in between starts and never pressed on him a little( he was too sharp and fresh in his initial outing).Zito was concerned that SK may be getting a little \"HOT\"as a new 3yr old and looked to dull him a bit.

I would not totally give him a reaction/ bounce for his last effort at TAMPA due to the above.His next race is really going to tell his story, one way or the other.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
godolphin has done remarkable things off layoffs. sulamini took the big 12f race last year (maybe the year before) in his first start of the year. i don\'t recall any miracles with three year olds though... this B&R is a mystery to me. he beat a few nice colts last week, probably ran pretty fast. i think he is trading in the 15-1 range in europe though - too short for me.

[TGJB]

Michael-- might not be Godolphin, but didn\'t somebody win a classic over there in their first start of the year last year?

[jimbo66]

HP,

Monarchos had three preps, two in Florida, then the Wood Memorial, in which in finished a non-threating 2nd to Congaree.  (If Monarchos had been light on preps, then the statistic wouldn\'t be \"one horse in the last 57 years\", it would be \"two horses in the last 57 years\", since Monachos won the Derby.

Aptitude I am slightly less sure of, but I think he also had three preps, the last two being the Gotham and then the Wood, where he ran behind Fusaichi and Red Bullet.

[TGJB]

Jim-- we\'re putting together those sheets now, plus Aptitude, whom I bet. I\'m still trying to figure out how Solis was wider from post 2 than FP was from post 11 or so.

Still wish someone had a list going back further.

[jimbo66]

JB,

Not sure what you consider the English Classics, I think that usually refers to the 1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas, Derby and Oaks.

If so, Attraction, trained by Mark Johnston, won the 1000 Guineas off of a 10 month layoff.

[jimbo66]

JB,

Does your research point out that winning off a layoff is equally probable on dirt as it is on turf.  I have read many times (not supported by stats), that it is much easier to get a horse to run well on turf off the layoff, since racing on turf is less strenuous on horses.  

Just curious if your figures back that up.

[Michael D.]

jerry,
lundy won the UAE derby off a few races, and the winners of the epsom and guineas 2000 had a few preps. maybe a three yr old took one of the big ascot races? i think i would have remembered though, especially if it was done without a prep.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

You don\'t consider the 1000 guineas a classic?

[derby1592]

I will not swear that all of these are correct or that the list is complete but it is probably pretty close going back to 1983. These horses all had 2 or fewer preps as 3yos prior to the Derby.

Chris

83 Sunny\'s Halo

(I probably missed a few but, believe it or not, I could not find another Derby entrant between 1983 to 1992 that had fewer than 3 Derby preps, which tells you a lot about how training has changed in just the last 10-15 years - which means such horse won the Derby 100% they ran in that time frame:-).

92 Arazi (euro)
92 Disposal
92 Dr. Devious (euro)
92 Thyer (euro)
93 El Bakan (PR)
94 Brocco
94 Powis Castle (longshot)
94 Ulises (PR I think...)
94 Valiant Nature
95 Talkin Man
95 Eltish (euro)
95 Ski Captain (euro)
95 Citadeed (euro)
97 Deeds Not Words (longshot)
98 Victory Gallop
98 Favorite Trick
98 Old Trieste
99 Lemon Drop Kid
99 Worldly Manner (Dubai)
2000 Anees
2000 China Visit (Dubai)
2001 Point Given
2001 Express Tour (Dubai)
2002 Saarland
2002 Essence of Dubai (Dubai)
2002 Johannesburg (Euro)
2002 Castle Gandolfo
2002 Proud Citizen
2003 Indian Express
2003 Outta Here
2003 Peace Rules
2004 Birdstone
2004 Castledale
2004 Friends Lake
2004 Lion Heart
2004 Read The Footnotes
2004 Tapit

[Michael D.]

hey jim,

missed your post

it is, i was thinking of the colts....the guineas 1000 and 2000 are mile races though. don\'t want to offend the irish, but, as these races relate to this discussion, you could consider them \"preps\". i would imagine it\'s easier to win one of those fresh compared to the derby or oaks.

going to be tough to solve the prep/derby issue this year. looks like it will be just rockport and B&R running off just two preps. they could both flop and i\'m not sure i would blame it on the preparation.



Post Edited (03-29-05 19:04)

[TGJB]

We\'ve never looked at this, I can have George run a study, but the exact question may make a difference. My guess is that grass horses have a better record off layoffs because a) many are trained by Europeans or \"European style\", meaning wound up off layoffs, b)there are much fewer cheap grass races, and higher quality horses tend to be cranked more off layoffs, in part because they actually get rested, as opposed to only being stopped on because of injuries, and c) there are much fewer grass races and it\'s tougher to find a race, so trainers don\'t want to waste a start.

Hence the difficulty in asking the right question. If you can state one that draws a line through the variables we can run a study pretty easily, I think.

To quote one of the great sages, Ralph Kiner-- \"Statistics are like bikinis. They show a lot, but not everything\".

I have a feeling that sometime over the next couple of days I\'m going to be talking about Mark Twain and jumping frogs again. Probably to CH.

We\'re going to work from Chris\' list, so it will take a while.

[kev]

Now if it was a move of 4.1 to a 4.0 I called it a pair either way( 4.0 to 4.1 ), also if they came overseas which most had run here atless twice I wacthed these carefully. From 1997 to 2004: 131 horses ran in the derby 16 ran new tops and 16 paired up their tops.12% ran a new top, 24% either ran a top or paired up the old top.

[TGJB]

Kev-- yeah, I think we did something with that question for last year\'s Derby, might be in the seminar, and it came out about like that.

Listen, we are doing something in Louisville. When you get a chance, do me a favor and e-mail Alan at alanb@thorograph.com so he can get your e-mail and ask you a couple of questions.