Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

[derby1592]

Lukas/Lewis said that they plan to run Going Wild in the Derby along with stablemate Consolidator. I guess they were encouraged by his performance in the Wood...or maybe they are thinking that they might just have him set some torrid fractions in the Derby to try and soften up Bellamy Road, High Limit and the other front runners...

If High Limit freaks in the Blue Grass (and I think he might), this could shape up to be one of the most interesting Derbies in quite some time...

Chris

[jimbo66]

Consolidator runs from on the pace as well.  I doubt the Lewises and Lukas would enter Going Wild as a rabbit and even if they did, the horse couldn\'t come within shouting distance of Bellamy Road at any time during the Wood.  They need a better rabbit.  Maybe the three year old version of Don Six, if he exists.

Just curious, are you reading a \"breakout\" in High Limit\'s pattern for this week\'s race, or is that just your gut feeling?  

I like the horse and am hoping that as poorly as the other Louisiana Derby runners have come back, that High Limit might go off as 2nd or 3rd choice, behind Sun King and Consolidator.

[jbelfior]

Perhaps the Lewises could move GOING WILD over to Scott Lake. Then we could have a MONARCHOS type Derby with the half going in :44 3/5; 6f in 1:09 4/5.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

Going Wild may need some help graded-earnings-wise to get in.  He\'s 26th with only $47,500 on the list Churchill Downs put out today.  I read a quote from Lukas\'s assistant saying that GW\'s Wood was too bad to be believed, so they\'re drawing a line through it.  Maybe they\'ll  try the Lexington if they need earnings.

The interesting horse, earnings-wise, is Bandini.  At $60,000, he\'ll have to do well against a tough Blue Grass field this weekend or be in jeopardy of missing the Derby.

Has anyone read whether John Velazquez is riding Afleet Alex or Bandini this weekend?  I assume he\'d prefer Bandini, but I\'m wondering what kind of commitment he had to make to supplant Jeremy Rose.

jimbo,

\"I like the horse and am hoping that as poorly as the other Louisiana Derby runners have come back, that High Limit might go off as 2nd or 3rd choice, behind Sun King and Consolidator.\"

I don\'t think the public will put too much weight on the performances of the other horses coming out of the LA Derby. They weren\'t much going in. High Limit crushed them. He is so lightly raced people will expect him to move forward. He\'s a Frankel horse.

[jimbo66]

CH,

so you think High Limit goes favored over Sun King and Consolidator?  

I disagree on Sun King, but you might be right about Consolidator.

I think Sun King will be favored, High Limit second choice, Consolidator 3rd choice and Bandini 4th choice.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Going Wild has a lot more front end speed than he\'s made apparent in his last two races. The key will be the earnings but if he does get into the Derby, be prepared for a change of pace and when they start stopping dont be surprised if this one is there after some of the lower odds others have long before said sayonara.



Post Edited (04-11-05 16:53)

jimbo,

I don\'t know.

Sun King has a bit of reputation as Zito\'s #1 horse and Zito is going so well that he\'s going to take a lot of money just on that. Maybe he will be favored, but I can\'t see High Limit going off much longer.

It\'s a very high quality prep.

[NoCarolinaTony]

NY Boy Zito is a \"HomeBoy\" at Keeneland. All of the $2.00 bettors play him there. Although Cliff\'s Edge went off over 5-1 last year to Lionheart.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

tony,
i think zito lives in lexington now......

going wild? on TG, bellamy was seven lengths faster than GW going into the wood. how could they both have been 5/2? that was some of the worst betting i have seen in a while.

[TGJB]

Michael-- one reason for BR and GW going off the same price was that Beyer had GW much faster-- he gave his maiden win 104, and two others better than BR\'s best, a 96. As I said earlier, he missed that one by 8-9 of his points, and he had GW wrong (and has SoCal horses too fast in general, although he has started adjusting). Ragozin had BR about right on the scale, but has had the ones coming out of the NY preps too fast right along. Don\'t know about GW.

[Michael D.]

my father liked GW. i tried to tell him about the # difference, but he thinks you sheet guys are evil, so he didn\'t listen.

[jimbo66]

Just curious, any idea how Beyer would miss the Bellamy Road race by 8-10 of his points?  It couldn\'t have been ground loss, he was in the one path all the way around the track (pretty sure).  Weight can\'t account for 8-10 points.

[Michael D.]

those blow-out races over the new GP surface must have been pretty tough to put #\'s on - especially given the way the wind can swirl around out there (i think wind can have a big affect on the one turn miles).



Post Edited (04-11-05 18:17)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll concede GW didn\'t have Bellamy Road\'s last number or the 2yo 5\'s but BR was a one number horse going into the Wood and 5-2 wasn\'t a bonanza on either horse in the circumstances and if some think it was more power to em.

GW didn\'t lift a foot on that track and apparently came back sound. (We\'ll see about that) If you\'re dismissing GW on the figs going in and the result coming out thats logical but I tend to think we haven\'t heard the last of GW yet. He needs to have the perfect race BR just had and things will take care of themselves.