"The Great Wall of Zito,"

[Silver Charm]

The Derby does go directly through him>

Which horse will he saddle on Derby Day?

He can\'t saddle all of them by himself and will this be a clue as to which horse he likes the most. Or maybe the one or two he saddles are not the ones he favors at all.

Wonder if there is the same exercise rider for all five?

Should an interesting couple of weeks. One thing is for sure he will certainly earn his per diem.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Agreed Silver....in 96 I told all my friends who would listen that Grindstone was Lukas\'s most dangerous horse. I bet Cavonnier anyway. If Grindstone was uncoupled he\'d have been a real nice price.

Grindstone
Editors Note
there were 3 others I forget for 5 total.

Lukas won two legs that year i think. We\'ll have to see if Zito\'s fab 5 can match that feat. It would be an accomplishment.

[jbelfior]

He\'ll saddle Tracy Farmer\'s horse.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

Another slow night on the job, another rambling, non- scientific, subjective post. The topic: The Great Wall of Zito, aka the Beast with 16 Hooves.

In Friday/ Saturday DRF, Crist and Beyer have basically sent up the white smoke and annointed BELLAMY ROAD. Crist says he can bounce kind of drastically and still win the Derby; Beyer says he is \"head and withers\" above the rest. 3 of the last 5 Derby winners prepped in the Wood; BR\'s daddy ran in the Derby. The hype is just beginning on this colt, the Boss Steinbrenner angle will be played up, and even in a 20 horse field this guy could be 9/5 at post time.

HIGH FLY: The knocks are his lack of a race in the last 60 days (no horse has won with this sort of spacing since 1956)and the fact that he has only competed over two tracks, Calder and Gulfstream. To me the biggest knock is the ease with which he won his races (basically perfect tripped in each win.) What is the likelihood of a perfect trip in a 20 horse field?

My subjective view of his breeding: Sire Atticus (mile/turf) Dam Verbasle (all day long, lean towards turf).

To me HF should be 15-20/1, but will be 8-/1 due to the presence of Bailey.

SUN KING: The big mystery. Perhaps NZ has too much confidence in this guy, running  him in the BC Juvie without a 2 turn prep. Impressed no one at Tampa. Who knows what seasoning/conditioning he got out of the BG? Daddy won the Derby. Could go off at 15-20/1, no consolation to someone (me) who owns him in the futures at 10/1. I dont think even NZ knows what to expect of this colt on May 7.

NOBLE CAUSEWAY: Since 93, only Real Quiet and Funny Cide won the Derby without a previous stake win in their 3YO campaign. Only Sea Hero won without having previously recorded a Beyer over 100. He should be the only non stakes winner to face the starter on May 7. His daddy ran a wide 2nd to Tiznow in the BC Classic at Churchill, his first and only dirt race. If he weren\'t part of the Zito brigade, he would go off at odds of 30-40/1.

OVERVIEW:(1) NZ has done a classy job of balancing the Derby Dreams of 4 different owners and keeping all 4 of these animals sound (as far as we know); he has been careful to be diplomatic about the chances of all of them. I think he wishes that he could have the luxury of holding Sun King and/or Noble Causeway out of the Derby and pointed to the Preakness/ Belmont, but the 5 million TC bonus means that the days of pointing towards legs 2 and 3 of the Triple Crown are gone. NZ probably is one step ahead and has an idea of which colts he wants to send where (Preakness, Belmont, Travers)after the Derby.

(2) BELLAMY could be this years Ghostzapper in that we are all afraid to believe what the TG#s, the Beyers and our own eyes tell us: that this is a brilliantly fast colt who may be peaking at the right time. I will try to beat him, but will not be surprised if he beats me. Beat him with who? I have about 15 days and 10 or so hours (thanks for the clock TGJB) to figure it all out.

[jbelfior]

richiebee--

Nice to see someone with this much Derby passion early in the morning.

I looked at the PP\'s for past derby winners. My feeling is one would be stabbing if one were to consider, in the win spot, anyone who did not finish first or second in their last start and/or did not pair-up or move forward.

If you\'re going to regress before the Derby, it better only be once, slight, and off of a new top....eliminate SUN KING for one, CONSOLIDATOR as another.

It also looks as if it will take somewhere around a zero TG # to win this, if not a neg #. Now I know this does not sound like rocket science talk, but you would be amazed at how many this will eliminate, some of which the crowd will bet.

Example: Does anyone think NOBLE CAUSEWAY can improve AGAIN to the level required to win this? Obviously Edgar Prado feels this colt is a month away. Wouldn\'t one eliminate the entire group behind AFLEET ALEX?

Why would one consider WILKO? How does he improve to a performance level capable of winning the Derby? You wouldn\'t believe how many people I know that like this guy.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

Joe:
 
    I am in a position where I have to like Wilko(future wager). He pays 43.80 in round 3; He might be higher odds on race day.

    Why did I bet Wilko? (1) The BC Juvie/ Ky. Derby jinx is more of an oddity/ coincidence than anything else. The \"jinx\" will eventually be broken. Maybe this year. 2)Wilko showed a good burst of acceleration when he \"rebroke\" after dropping back a little on the far turn at Lone Star. Maybe an optical illusion; I\'ll watch the race again. From a gambling standpoint, he beat AA and Sun King in Texas that day, and will go off at much higher odds than either of those two.

   Truth about Wilko: highest L/T Beyer less than 100, no stake win as a 3YO PLUS THAT JINX! 35-40/1 on race day. Have seen nothing in his races this year that puts him close to the big guns.

[Kasept]

\"HIGH FLY: The knocks are his lack of a race in the last 60 days (no horse has won with this sort of spacing since 1956)and the fact that he has only competed over two tracks, Calder and Gulfstream. To me the biggest knock is the ease with which he won his races (basically perfect tripped in each win.) What is the likelihood of a perfect trip in a 20 horse field?\"

RB..

Don\'t you agree that High Fly \"perfect trips\" because he has the kind of turn of foot that prevents bad trips..? And though I\'m no fan of Bailey, I doubt he puts High Fly in any position that results in having to avoid a front runner that is backing up abruptly.. (Perfect trip winners among stalker-closers worry me coming into the Derby..)

As to racing exclusively at CRC/GP, the horses exiting the Gulfstream winter have been head and shoulders above everything from any other part of the country so far (except Afleet Alex), and High Fly should be no exception.

Finally, after running four times in 100 days Jan-Apr (8f, 9f-3x), this 35 day break looks like a terrific intermezzo for High Fly to me. In the hands of Zito, I have much less of a concern about the layoff than I would many other conditioners..

[RICH]

I\'m liking HIGH FLY alot, I\'m anxious to see his last #. If he paired or went thru that top a little that would be great. He should no doubt move foward off the 5 week rest. Several of the horses that just got big new tops are coming in off 3 weeks rest. We will see some regression here.

[Wrongly]

High Fly?  He got the \"perfect\" trip in the Florida Derby just sitting off BB Best.  If you don\'t believe me watch the replay at Kentuckyderby.com.  I see no reason why High Fly horse should move forward.  In the Derby he isn\'t going to get anywhere near that kind of trip.  I also have serious questions about High Fly\'s ability to get 1 1/4.  I say this not based upon pedigree, but rather his last 2 races were he struggled through the last 1/8th.  He has the look of many Florida horses we have seen before: Friends Lake, Blue Burner (aptly named) Hal\'s Hope, Vicar, Lil\'s Lad.  The list goes on and on.

[miff]

Wrongly,

I thought High Fly\'s last race showed an improved/stronger last 1/8 than his prior effort.I agree about the perfect trip in the FD but a tactical horse with Bailey can get that trip even in a 20 horse field.

I am also skeptical of his ability to finish strong enough at 10f and will toss him if he draws bad where I think he will need to be \"spent\" too much getting position.This is one of the most interesting \"tactical\" KD\'S I can recall.

[gvido]

 
Author: jbelfior
Date:   04-22-05 07:44

I looked at the PP\'s for past derby winners. My feeling is one would be stabbing if one were to consider, in the win spot, anyone who did not finish first or second in their last start and/or did not pair-up or move forward.

If you\'re going to regress before the Derby, it better only be once, slight, and off of a new top....eliminate SUN KING for one, CONSOLIDATOR as another.

I\'m not that certain about Consolidator. You need to see him in the post parade. In his two \'05 clunkers he was a nervous lathered up mess. If he\'s cool, calm collected it would be hard to ignore him.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It also looks as if it will take somewhere around a zero TG # to win this, if not a neg #. Now I know this does not sound like rocket science talk, but you would be amazed at how many this will eliminate, some of which the crowd will bet.

Agreed, but for super/tri players, it\'ll be difficult not to spread.

********************************************

Example: Does anyone think NOBLE CAUSEWAY can improve AGAIN to the level required to win this? Obviously Edgar Prado feels this colt is a month away. Wouldn\'t one eliminate the entire group behind AFLEET ALEX?

Perhaps Flower Alley bottom of tri/super.

NC has developed nearly 7pts how much more does he have short term? It\'s anyones guess.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Why would one consider WILKO? How does he improve to a performance level capable of winning the Derby? You wouldn\'t believe how many people I know that like this guy.
 
Wilko\'s 3yo debut was an intermediate top and with the 3w4w SAD trip, he may have broken thru his 2yo top and would be a strong line coming into the Derby; maybe not the top slot, but very useable underneath at a big price. BRIS gave him a new triple digit top and perhaps the TG fig is much better than we think, i.e. Sweet Catomine.
****************************************

High Fly a new small top to a 1.0

[RICH]

Hey Gvido

On that High Fly 1, is that your guess? Just curious.

Thanks

[gvido]

RICH:

No, it was listed in the Derby Future pool 3

[flushedstraight]

Greetings folks, first time post here

Contrary to his name, High Fly seems to be flying under the radar 15 days out, and this is despite Zito and Bailey winning the derby multiple times each. Maybe the tough draw in the Holy Bull was a blessing; \"undefeated\" might draw a lot more attention, especially after last year.

With his natural speed and proven ability to relax, I don\'t see why he cant sit the nice trip here. Maybe not as nice as sitting off BB Best but still most likely a better trip than the other fast ones except maybe the other stalker Bandini, so everything is relative. Obviously the PP draw is a factor but we dont have that info yet.

Maybe Bellamy Road clears early and jogs off but I imagine most of us agree he\'ll be challenged most of the way; any question it will be tougher for him than being chased by a short Scrappy T? Same goes for High Limit, but at least some possible value there.

What\'s the under/over for the # of paths wide that Afleet Alex will be leaving the 2nd turn? 7? 8? Anyone counting on Rose finding a hole? or even looking/waiting for one? good luck, and demand a price.

Assuming he\'ll be 4th or 5th choice in the 8-1 to 10-1 range, High Fly looks to me to be the key to wagering on this race even though a few others have run faster. What are the chances that 3 or 2 or even 1 of the others can all repeat their best #s and get favorable trips? High Fly does not appear to be the most likely winner but he does appear to be the most likely to run close to his top and get the non-harmful trip.

Although the Zito Florida to Kentucky ship is accepted by many as a potential jump up move, I wouldn\'t expect a forward move here (of course it\'s possible and would be nice). Hey, I\'ll be happy with 2nd here, it\'s not like I\'m getting invited to the winners circle anyway. I can\'t toss freaky Bellamy Road with any confidence but too many questions (at 6-5?) to key.

Maybe I\'m delusional, but it looked like High Fly was effortlessly cruising around the track in the Fla Derby and was being handridden until mid-stretch and then responded instantly when urged. Struggled? I\'m not sure this horse has struggled enough to be ready for the big one...

a note to High Limit fans; the Bluegrass should be no reason to give up on this horse. Frankel was playing around, I\'m sure he knows more than us that getting a horse ready with only 3 weeks off a top is not a strong point for him. He wants the derby. Any stats on Frankel plus blinks?

[richiebee]

Kasept:

  You\'ve actually stated one of my points in a different manner: Bandini, Bellamy and Closing Argument have all left Florida and run very well on different tracks. How do we know how High Fly plays in his first road game? I believe that theres as much chance that he acclimates well as there is that he doesn\'t.

  Look, I agree that at 10/1 he will be one of the few bettable alternatives to his 9/5 stablemate, and one of the spread horses in multiple race wagers. Everyone seems to agree that Bailey will find a prime piece of real estate-- the question might be how much he has to spend to get there.



Post Edited (04-22-05 13:20)