Cnl 7/16: The Virginia Oaks

[Mall]

My main thoughts today are two: (1) OPM is on the 1st page of the leaderboard after day 2 at the Gold Coast, and after what happened last time, it would be great, & poetic justice to boot, if he\'s on top when they wrap things up today; & (2) If the 8-1ML holds up, Cristel\'s horse in the Emerald at Cby seems worth the longest of looks.

Our level of experience at Col is the same. After a windshield wiper look at R7-9, & your & Tony\'s posts, one thing you might want to consider, given the wide open nature of the last two, is playing their stakes pk3 instead of tris & supers. I think Tony landed on the most likely upsetter in the 7th, but I wouldn\'t be in any hurry to play against Proctor\'s horse, a possible single in the 1st leg. I would take a stand against Pletcher in the 8th, & while I wouldn\'t leave Mott\'s horse out & both Clement\'s & Dollase\'s horses are very logical must includes, I like your thinking on the 6 & 11, as both look very live to me. Snowdrops & Humoristic would be my keys in vertical plays. Depending on how the ticket was structered, I am even more strongly inclined against Pletcher in the 9th, & also think SW, as well as PR, SH, & RB, are all very live. I\'m not as high as you are on the 10, & couldn\'t help but notice that the appropriately named Criminal Mind will be saddled by someone who got caught stealing money from his own brother. I have nothing against the owners, & I like the jock, but it wouldn\'t upset me in the least if CM is distanced.

Best of Luck.

         

[Michael D.]

i think i\'m going with masseuse in the oaks, i think she can improve a few points, and should get a decent trip from post one with castellano up. ml of 6-1 sounds fair......  good luck everybody.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I\'m pretty sure you won\'t hear them say Scrappy T will be a great sire.

But they sure as hell screwed up my ROTW.

[Michael D.]

excellent race. bailey rated that filly to perfection (nice analysis on that horse class). castellano also did a good job saving ground, but he got bottled up a bit, probably cost him the race. masseuse really did explode once free.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its my belief that Turf Racing in the United States should be watched and admired and never wagered upon. Here\'s the Colonial Chart. There was only one race worth betting and it was a MSW. If you know how to handicap Turf and Turf Breeding and can factor switch of surface jump ups, thats the way to catch higher odds horses on turf. Otherwise it generally becomes a matter of which low odds horse has the least trouble or takes to a surface which is murder to identify a variant upon because so few races are run on the green.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=CNL&CY=USA&DATE=07/16/2005&STYLE=EQB

I really don\'t want to talk about Mr. Hill any longer. Best of luck to him.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

So..... I had a winning Day although Win Odds were not worth playing. Had 5 of 6 in Pic 6, Needed 1 or 8 in last to hit the thing. Anyway. the Massuese Exacta with 5-2 and 2-1 paid an incredible $41 exacta which I had . Hit a Tri and A super (only $432 though). All in All Had the one or 8 won the 9th I would have cleaned up. Instead of winning a couple thousand  went home up a couple hundred. Did you see the race Stupendous Miss ran? Look at the chart. Wish I would have seen Mall\'s post on Humoristic. That number paid very well.

Mall, I in the Colonial Contest Next week. Took your advice and entered my wife and the second entry so to speak. Any advince on betting in these contests (mythical $2 win/place capped)? You can email me if you don\'t want to clutter up the board with this. I know you will have great pearls of wisdom to draw from.

Good Luck,

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

well done tony..... good time to get hot, right before the dmr and sar meets start.