Matron & Atto Mile

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

India is an interesting horse.

They have her morning line favorite from the 1 hole! Broke maiden impressively end of June. 5.5 was a long way back then. Breeder that sold her for 400k bought her back for 2000k off that maiden win. Now thats confidence...lol

Well, its back to Belmont where she wasn\'t as sharp. You can only hope they make her 7-5 or less.

Atto:

Thought Allan handicapped the race pretty well will not disagree with his position. Want to point out Sophia\'s Choice though.

That last race was very good. The track was quick, but there was no part in that race where Sophia was weak.

The risk is bounce of course. The optimistic news is that for the most part the horse has been hickory. He\'s bounced little, but for his 2YO year and has missed little time. He\'s a Canada horse. They don\'t take him out to the track until May and hes out to pasture by the end of December. Hes danced all the dances and only has 26 starts. Shossbergs are late developers per the TGI stats.

He was just about as good a Turf horse as a Dirt horse and theres no reason to think he won\'t be a better Turf horse now that hes a better dirt horse. This year, hes a new horse. Note the change in running style. Mabye hes not up to the top two, but he makes for great perfecta value and I won\'t allow him to get in the perfecta or trifecta with the heavy heads without me.

I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on turf with 1 second against many solid Graded Stakes horses. I think the difference between him and some of the others is greater than the small edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got the perfect style to get consistently easy trips. He should get another one from the rail. The only knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t particularly good and he got a very easy trip on the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a stretch though because you could argue that his last  race was a prep for this and the BC.

India ran a very fast race in her last, but a lot of 2YOs don\'t duplicate their 5F and 5.5F figures when they stretch out to 7F. That goes double if they were  wire to wire winners against maidens and are trying stakes company for the first time where they may take some serious early heat. It\'s tough to bet against a lightly raced Pletcher 2YO with the top figure, but I\'m pretty sure she\'s not as good as she looks right now. It\'s a matter of whether \"not being as good as she looks\" is still good enough to win here. I might get a little interested in River\'s Prayer if the price is high enough. There\'s not much difference between her and horses like Folklore, but I think she comes out of pretty tough and hotly contested race out in CA where she rated for the first time.  

In the Futurity I would like Master of Disaster, but he supposedly had some problems after his last race. You can see the gap in his WOs. So you have to at least wonder if he\'s 100%. After that I\'m not a particularly big fan of Private Vow \"yet\" even though he seems to be developing as they stretch out. In his last race he wired a 3 horse field with a loose lead on a track that if anything was tilted towards speed. He\'s got to be at least a little suspect off tha trip. After that it starts becoming a crap shoot because you are counting on MoD not being 100% and PV not being as good as he looks to get someone else in there (like Union Course) and no one I can see merits a lot of confidence.  





 

[Michael D.]

india will go off much lower than 7-5. not sure what to think of her. taking 3/5 on a yound hennessy filly stretching from 5.5f to 7f doesn\'t sound like smart gambling to me. she could rate if needed though, and i give her a decent shot to get the longer distances with hoist the flag and halo on bottom (might have soundness issues though). india looks tough. have to just watch it i guess.
............

as for master of disaster - i guess you have to try and beat him here at low odds. starting from post 1, he will have to be nudged out of the gate, and will most likely face pressure all the way around the track. who can rate a bit here?
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more on the atto mile later - after a quick look, the fave looks tough.
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after a second look - the ROTW is interesting. if pval can save ground and not get trapped, OR, if lerwa does react from the shorter than usual rest, KOH looks like the play. i\'m with TG on this one.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sure hes not a bad horse, but hes barely beaten a couple of these and is coming back on short rest for one of the few times in his career. His inside post is an advantage, but not as big of one as they sometimes are.

Plus the track took a good dose of water today and he has some issues. Sure Ghostzapper did too hes gonna be odds on and thats too juicy to pass up. Lets see how he handles a fair surface for a change.

The Futurity I\'m much more in flux about. Master of Disaster looks a decent horse, but I\'m not so sure cutting into Henny Hughes lead is that big of an accomplishment. He ran over 1.24 in the Hopeful. Think it was probably more of an optical illusion than a horse running on.

If you like Dance Master you have to give a close look at Union Course. He ran wide last and figures to lose some ground again but hes capable of busting it up the rail.

Also Bailey moves from Dance Master to Private Vow and just handled Trippi Appeal who may not be that bad a horse. Disco lost to him after a tough break. Disco\'s been troubled but he even gives me ibby jeebies.

They can improve so quickly at this age is the thing. Most haven\'t set their performance levels. Depending on odds I\'m probably inclined to pass this one.

Well I guess India was a pretty bad even money shot.  

[Michael D.]

another hennessy fill with soundness issues, or another hennessy filly with distance limitations? i didn\'t think she would have a problem with 7f. i\'m guessing there is some physical problem there. either way, too much risk at those odds.

I tend to agree with you. She was so bad it\'s hard to think the distance and quality of competition was the problem. Something must have happened to her. Either way, I think she was a highly suspect odds on favorite at 7F in a race where she figured to take some heat early.  

[Michael D.]

india misjudged the break and banged into the gate. she also broke a bit slow when the gates opened. i\'ll give her another shot before i call her a weak hearted sprinter.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

There is no such thing as an impressive maiden win. India broke through the gate and had to battle early. Too much juice most likely Todd.

Thought the Ghostzapper odds on Folkare were fair, but wish the Anees horse had held on for 2nd.

Liked Private Vow the most, but no one was fooled by the quality of that Allowance win. Watch for Disco\'s son when that horse catches a break.

If that course is as soft tomorrow anticipate a scratch by Frankel in the Atto Mile.

Just finished listening to an interview of Lukas. He gave a great interview even if a little self serving. He did say some interesting things unrelated to his accomplishments however.

One was the degree of cheating in the game. He\'s convinced these guys are ruining the game (lol) and if something isn\'t done about it from inside the Federal Authorities will.

He proposed any owner caught with a drugged horse endure a 120 day suspension. Though quizzically he was against the horse goes to jail solution. If the owner is suspended shouldn\'t ALL of his horses be in Jail? Maybe it was the single horse in jail he disagreed with and the interviewer didn\'t follow up with him enough. I liked Lukas\'s idea.

He also said he is against lasix and when \"forced\" to use it he only gives half doses. I\'m in agreement. If the game is going drug free, lets go drug free.

[kev]

Looking over this race, seems to be wide open. Only two horses in here has number\'s that\'s not fast enough. With all that said, I\'ll take ROYAL REGALIA 6-1 looks to pair up the 2.2, this might be a race where you could see a horse like MOBIL come running and hit the board at long odds and I wouldn\'t go \"how in the hell did that horse come in\" The fav. LEROIDES...does looks solid to run the 1.2, the weight and ground save might just cancel each other out. KING of H. nice hard hitting horse, my question is why the time off?? Unless Neil was planning it this way. You could make a case for a few more in this race.

[Michael D.]

kev,
i read somewhere that this has been drysdale\'s plan since the beginning of the summer..... the soft turf makes this race a bit more interesting. not sure you can just assume a run in the \"1\" to \"2\" range out of the two favorites over the heavy going, especally at low odds. having a tough time coming up with anything interesting though.

although......

the 6th went in 1:47.1. not real fast for those horses over that course, but not slow either.

[SoCalMan2]

I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here.  I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel\'s horse.  Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet.  To me, a horse\'s speed and the likely number he is going to run is a lot more important than his \'boxscore,\' and I am trying to take advantage of people who are betting things like a boxscore.  While I agree he normally gets a good rail trip, I am not so sure about today.  First, all those 1w 1w trips are a significant edge compared to a 1w trip, so his favorable running style is not as large an advantage today around one turn as it normally is around two.  Second, it looks to me like there might be a bit of speed up front and he might not be as comfortable on the front end as normal.  It is a very big difference when a horse is accustomed to getting a lead on the rail off a short run to the first turn of a two turn race where riders are thinking about conserving their horses.  Here, these guys are gunning down a long straight away before the only turn in the race.  The horses coming out of this type of race (one turn) are a lot more accustomed to what this takes whereas Frankel\'s horse is going to find himself in a new situation.  If he finds himself behind horses going into the turn, then he will either have to go wide or face traffic.  Also, that 5 lbs extra (or more against the others) is going to take a toll.  I am also iffy on his pattern.  I am definitely going to try to beat this horse today.  King of Happiness does look very good.  My problem is that I am worried about some of the others in here as well running nice ones.  It would suck to beat that Brazilian horse and still lose because one of those others gets up.  Today would be a great day to be able to access betfair and take people\'s action on Frankel\'s horse.

Anyway, good luck to all, and kudos on a good ROTW analysis.

[SoCalMan2]

I actually agree with the Clown. Sophia\'s Choice is dangerous here, and I will be covering with that horse (although KoH will be my key).

[Michael D.]

well, i still make leroid the best here, but 3/5? hoping pval can save all the ground with KOH. at 7-1, he\'s my key.

\"I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here. I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel\'s horse. Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet.\"

Everyone disagrees with me about practically everything. Even when they agree it upsets them.

He may be overbet (I know I\'m not betting him), but I\'m of the opinion that boxscores actually do matter. It\'s not the boxscore per se, but what that boxscore tells us about the horse. I\'m of the view that ability is not fully expressed by speed figures. That is, when horses accumulate records loaded with wins and seconds, they generally possess a few intangibles of ability that allow them to beat horses with similar figures (and a worse record) more often than the small edge in figures would indicate. That goes double on turf where there are plenty of close finishes decided by that liitle extra gameness, kick etc...

All that said, I think his biggest vulnerability is related to something no one else has brought up. The Breeders Cup Mile is the main objective for this horse -not the Atto Mile. Frankel is no dummy. He\'s not going to sacrifice the latter to win this. So the horse may not even be 100% today.