Matron & Atto Mile

[P.Eckhart]

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Barry,
>...
> The Europeans are going to
> have to send over a tiger to beat him. Good Luck.


Not necessarily. Leroi was Intl. rated 117, post Atto he\'ll be moved up to around 127, which is huge. However, he *may* simply have finally found his ground at Woodbine, and could revert to 117 on firm ground. Euros could cover a 117 horse on fast ground, no tiger required.
 

[HP]

\"The facts lead me to believe Team Valor has visited the TGraph lunatic board.\" -- Chuckles the Clown 2

Chuckles,

You have posted on this board 47 times in September (I counted) so I guess that makes you some kind of charter lunatic!

This stat is even more incredible considering most of your posts are about how you don\'t agree with the TG figures for any number of races.  I won\'t even begin to count the number of posts from certain other posters on this score (guess who?)...  

It\'s almost as if the more people don\'t agree with the numbers or methodology or the \"importance\" of the numbers, the more they post!  And they are also usually the LONGEST posts!  

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> You have posted on this board 47 times in
> September (I counted) so I guess that makes you
> some kind of charter lunatic!

Some men count posts and ask \"Why\".......others post without reservation and respond \"why not\"?

Welcome to the lunatic club.

 
> This stat is even more incredible considering most
> of your posts are about how you don\'t agree with
> the TG figures for any number of races.  I won\'t
> even begin to count the number of posts from
> certain other posters on this score (guess
> who?)...

I think you\'ll find that I dont contest well over 99.9% of TGraphs figures. I think what you\'ll find is the issue of a single figure here or there is raised repeatedly in heated debate.

Sometimes a horse is not as good as he looked, nor as bad as he looked. Thats why speed figures are important.

> It\'s almost as if the more people don\'t agree with
> the numbers or methodology or the \"importance\" of
> the numbers, the more they post!  And they are
> also usually the LONGEST posts!

Tgraph has sound science and years of expertise behind them. When you take on one of their figures its not wise to merely state. \"They are wrong\"
 
>
> HP
>

[TGJB]

Barry, Barry, Barry.

\"Anybody who tries to build a stable of racehorses selected strictly on numbers always winds up on the short end of the stick\".

There have been three times when I\'ve been involved in doing exactly that on any significant scale. The first two stables ended up finishing in the top ten in the country in wins. The third was Prestonwood, for whom I bought 23 horses, 13 of which won stakes, including Victory Gallop, Distorted Humor, and Da Hoss. Average cost of the 23 horses was something like 125k-- I think the data is still available in the horseman\'s section of this site. We are just starting to build that type of operation for Ro Parra, and so far have come up with GII winners Even The Score and Santana Strings.

I\'ve asked you this before, and you did not respond. You claim to have a better way to go, with Team Valor-- how about doing what I did, and give us a list of all the horses purchased on your recommendation over a 5 year period, what they cost, what they earned, and what they were worth upon retirement?

[HP]

Chuckles,

Extrapolating from your September posting record, since Ghostzapper\'s BC Classic win about a year ago you have posted your opinion on Ghostzapper, his weakness at 10 maaaahhhhkkks, etc. at least 400 times (today too!).

Each successive race has no merit on its own, but merely constitutes an opportunity for you to return to your pentrating insights about Ghostzapper\'s faults. When the horse is dead you will probably stand on his grave yelling about 10 mahhhhks with the spit flying out of your mouth until they call horse graveyard security.

Does the expression \"fishwife\" mean anything to you? How about \"yenta?\" Are you a shut-in?  Forgetting about the merits or lack thereof in your posts, how do you have the TIME to repeat yourself so many times?  

HP

TGJB,

I don\'t have any experience buying horses, but I\'ve always thought there were two possibilities for finding \"signficant\" value.

1. Among claimers, based on par time figures at various tracks around the country, not all horses with similar claiming tags are equal. For example, some 10K claimers are vastly superior to others. It depends on the circuit. I think there may be ways to exploit that by moving the good 10K horses to the weaker circuits and running them for a higher tag and still having the best horse. One would also have to examine the comparative operating costs and purses etc..., but it\'s an obvious source of \"potential\" value.

2. Among higher quality horses on dirt, I would focus on overseas racing (the more remote the better) because few have speed figures to work with that can be compared to US figures and the classifications are even more difficult to make.  On turf, regardless of what the speed figures say, IMO the major European turf racing lays over the American racing. I would focus my buys there and ship to the US.

In the US, everyone who is anyone is at least looking at the speed figures when buying and selling horses that have already run. I think the real value may be in stable management as in your recent purchase recommedation where you tried to exploit the weak older stakes horses in CA.  

[TGJB]

CH-- I gotta tell you, you are something else. You come across a dialogue between two guys who have won BC races, among other multiple GIs, you have no experience whatsoever, and you think the right thing to do is offer your opinion on buying horses? Do you have any idea what is involved? It ain\'t fantasy football.

To you and anyone else who puts up posts that are essentially about themselves-- I\'m just taking them down from now on. Fill your need for attention somewhere else.

I\'m going home, so you have a shot to get one to stay up overnight.

P. Eckhart,

\"Not necessarily. Leroi was Intl. rated 117, post Atto he\'ll be moved up to around 127, which is huge. However, he *may* simply have finally found his ground at Woodbine, and could revert to 117 on firm ground. Euros could cover a 117 horse on fast ground, no tiger required.\"

I haven\'t see the Timeform ratings for the top European milers yet, but according the Timeform/Beyer conversation chart I use (supplied by someone else that has researched it), a Beyer figure of 112 converts to about a 125 Timeform rating. Beyer gave Leroi a 114 for that last performance. I can\'t recall too many US turf milers that were winning consistently while putting up consistent 112s and 114s against the highest quality turf fields available like Leroi has   Given that I think European turf racing is generally superior to US racing, I agree it\'s doable, but it\'s going to take a darn good one.      

TGJB,

One doesn\'t have to be a participant in a business where most people lose a fortune (the only measurement of success I would be interested in) to notice that some owners/trainers have had some success doing certain things while most others have failed miserably.

Any overpaying money losing purchaser can win a Breeders Cup race if he wants to. Just ask any of the Skeiks.

I also don\'t see what the problem is with offering my insights into what seem like clear cut inefficiencies in a marketplace that one can observe by simply handicapping horses for 30 years. If there are details I\'m not familiar with that would make my observations either difficult or impossible to exploit/implement, a simple explanation from you would have been appreciated. That\'s where your expertise would come in. The rest is just your personal problem with me and your ego.

A certain owner for Bruce Levine seems to be having a little early success trying to exploit something similar to what I suggested about 10K claimers among higher priced claimers in CA and NY. There are very obvious inefficiences among claiming horses around the country.

You also don\'t have to be too sharp to see how European turfers tend to dominate similarly classed horses here and how certain trainers like Ron McAnally and others have been able to scoop up some amazing horses in Latin and South America (probably for WAY LESS than a horse of similar quality would have cost in the US).

The way to do well in any business or investment venture is to find hidden value. That much is universal regardless of whether you participate in that business or not. I don\'t see where the value is in knowing that a horse in the US ran fast when everyone else knows that too. I would never buy a horse that way.

I do see potential value in some of the things I have suggested and in stable management by someone like you.  


 

[TGJB]

CH-- what you were doing was listening to a conversation between Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs about zone defenses, and then saying \"Well, here\'s what I think\".

What someone else would have done is either

a) say \"What do you think about this idea, guys\",or

b) say \"I\'ve noticed that Herm Edwards has had success with...\"

But not you. Because the posts are never about the subject, they are about you, and your endless, repetitive navel gazing.

[richiebee]

TGJB:

  In my neighborhood the only thing as bad as insulting someone\'s mother is calling them an omphaloskeptic. Expect the wrath of Class in retaliation.

[TGJB]

Richie-- Amazon reports a run on dictionaries.

[P.Eckhart]

Who are Bill Parcels and Joe Gibbs?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Just to help those who don\'t have it in their dictionary:

Omphaloskepsis is a word you won\'t find in all dictionaries.
     It refers to the practice of meditating while contemplating one\'s navel. I would venture to say there aren\'t many omphaloskeptics in your county or parish, unless of course there\'s some subculture you\'re not aware of.

Well Done Richie

TGJB,

Comparing yourself to Parcells and Gibbs is pretty comical coming from a guy who accuses me of being into myself.

The intention of the post was to offer an opinion on the subject of buying horses and to get feedback. I don\'t recall having a problem discussing things like that with Barry when I bought one through him a few years back. Opinions are only a problem on this board when then are mine and/or conflict with yours.