The Watchmaker Factor

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

In the July 7th, DRF \"Watchmaker Watch\", Mike Watchmaker still has Barbaro rated Number 1, with the commentary:

\"Recovery continues to be encouraging\"

Watchmaker, always behind the curve. The facts are that Barbaro has been running a \"consistently\" high fever for over a week.

On Monday, June 3rd he underwent anesthesia to have new screws inserted and a new cast was applied.

Wednesday, June 5th. Something was amiss with the cast and a third cast was applied. The implication is that he underwent anesthesia again, but that is not entirely clear.

Saturday, June 8th, the healing issues and infection became enough of a concern to subject Barbaro to a second major operation. A new plate, screws and a fresh bone graft are inserted and the infection site cleaned out. This is likely his third general anesthesia in 6 days and Richardson reports Barbaro is not recovering as quickly from the anesthesia.

The clinic reports the horse had also developed an abscess upon the sole of his left hind foot. (Which is his non injured rear foot and the one likely to take weight bearing if the injured foot is favored.)

Richardson\'s press release calls the developments \"Potentially\" serious. Potentially?

Between Mike Watchmaker and Richardson, which would get your vote for \"most deluded\"?

Will the media attempt to resurrect Barbaro in voting for the Eclipse winners?

http://my.earthlink.net/article/spo?guid=20060709/44b07f40_3ca6_1552620060709-979328289

[marcus]

Nice post ctc -  At the expense of sounding redundent , ad titium - Some of these guy\'s are beginning to look bad in my view when they knowingly mis-inform and omit relevent pertinent issues in their reporting of Barbaro\'s situation  and scheduling and spacing of Triple Crown Races  .

 

[BitPlayer]

CtC / Tabitha -

I\'m not a big fan of the Watchmaker Watch, but I don\'t think Watchmaker or the DRF is trying to mislead anyone.  The current Watch is dated July 7, which is before Saturday\'s major development.  As a practical matter, it was probably posted on July 6.  The DRF has reported the developments as they occurred. (Your post currently reads that the events cited occurred in June. That\'s a typo; they occurred in July.)

As for Richardson, he has consistently warned against undue optimism and that Barbaro is not nearly out of the woods.

[high roller]

this is 100% true, i have been reading this ctc character for a while and it seems to me that this sick person almost wants the horse to die. high time that jerry got rid of this maniac.

[richiebee]

HR:
 
   Chuckles is not that inhumane that he wants Barbaro dead.

   As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on to live a long life at stud (which is what we all hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more mileage out of him, reminding us all for the next 15 years that this colt was overrated.

   In Chuckles way of thinking, this stallion\'s get will always be suspect in terms of soundness and in some cases (just like with any other stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet correct.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HR:
>  
>    Chuckles is not that inhumane that he wants
> Barbaro dead.
>
>    As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on to
> live a long life at stud (which is what we all
> hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more mileage out
> of him, reminding us all for the next 15 years
> that this colt was overrated.
>
>    In Chuckles way of thinking, this stallion\'s
> get will always be suspect in terms of soundness
> and in some cases (just like with any other
> stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet
> correct.

The post did contain typos. It seems it takes me two weeks to understand when the month has changed. The time frame should be July, but the dates and implications were correct.

I wish Barbaro the best. He seems like a nice horse with alot of character. He is kind and alert. As far as animals generally go though today a baby rabbit found its way into my garage. I had to corner it to capture it and it wasn\'t easy. I was so mad I dashed it against the stoop, skinned it, marinated it in vinegar and made hassenpfeiffer for dinner. I know I spelled that wrong but I\'m too lazy to check.

Theres a lot of personal pronouns in this post, so hopefully Jerry will forgive it.

As far as Barbaro goes, the big score was the Preakness. Finally got him in the sights and got more than well. Barbaro retired undefeated but for that race,in which he finished last and my bets factored him off. The rest is history. Still if it would have been possible to get one more bet down after his gate bust, the return would have doubled.

Now the harsh part. I dont\' want Barbaro to breed. That opinion is held for the good of the breed, god knows the individuals involved in buying race horses don\'t have a clue about pedigree and genetic propensity. Its up to the horse Gods and they can\'t let him breed. They will decide.

Regarding the bunny. He had seven ticks in his ears, I carefully removed them, pinching each while avoiding harm to the little creature\'s hairless silken veined inside ear where they had lodged for their free meal. During the process I was stroking the little hopper to try and minimize the stress. The ticks themselves became sufficiently stressed to let go, but for the stubborn little ones which I popped between my nails. Of course I washed before I prepared the rabbit for dinner. The truth is the little lapin was freed in my garden, but that makes for a mundane story.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > HR:
> >  
> >    Chuckles is not that inhumane that he
> wants
> > Barbaro dead.
> >
> >    As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on
> to
> > live a long life at stud (which is what we
> all
> > hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more
> mileage out
> > of him, reminding us all for the next 15
> years
> > that this colt was overrated.
> >
> >    In Chuckles way of thinking, this
> stallion\'s
> > get will always be suspect in terms of
> soundness
> > and in some cases (just like with any other
> > stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet
> > correct.
>
> The post did contain typos. It seems it takes me
> two weeks to understand when the month has
> changed. The time frame should be July, but the
> dates and implications were correct.
>
> I wish Barbaro the best. He seems like a nice
> horse with alot of character. He is kind and
> alert. As far as animals generally go though today
> a baby rabbit found its way into my garage. I had
> to corner it to capture it and it wasn\'t easy. I
> was so mad I dashed it against the stoop, skinned
> it, marinated it in vinegar and made
> hassenpfeiffer for dinner. I know I spelled that
> wrong but I\'m too lazy to check.
>
> Theres a lot of personal pronouns in this post, so
> hopefully Jerry will forgive it.
>
> As far as Barbaro goes, the big score was the
> Preakness. Finally got him in the sights and got
> more than well. Barbaro retired undefeated but for
> that race,in which he finished last and my bets
> factored him off. The rest is history. Still if it
> would have been possible to get one more bet down
> after his gate bust, the return would have
> doubled.
>
> Now the harsh part. I dont\' want Barbaro to breed.
> That opinion is held for the good of the breed,
> god knows the individuals involved in buying race
> horses don\'t have a clue about pedigree and
> genetic propensity. Its up to the horse Gods and
> they can\'t let him breed. They will decide.
>
> Regarding the bunny. He had seven ticks in his
> ears, I carefully removed them, pinching each
> while avoiding harm to the little creature\'s
> hairless silken veined inside ear where they had
> lodged for their free meal. During the process I
> was stroking the little hopper to try and minimize
> the stress. The ticks themselves became
> sufficiently stressed to let go, but for the
> stubborn little ones which I popped between my
> nails. Of course I washed before I prepared the
> rabbit for dinner. The truth is the little lapin
> was freed in my garden, but that makes for a
> mundane story.
>
>
>


Ctc,

You are certainly unusually unusual CTC.

Ever read Ibsin?

NC Tony

[richiebee]

Actually an interesting observation in the middle of Chuckles\' hasenpfeffer (or was it chazerai?).

If the entity CTC refers to as \"the Racing Gods\" oversaw the perpetuation of the breed, natural selection would govern, and injured animals would not be permitted to propagate.

Humans and money, not the \"Gods\", rule racing. Overpriced underacheiving auction purchases become stallions based on economic necessity, not brilliance on the racetrack.

The long term effect of the introduction of large numbers of lightly raced and relatively unproven stallions (not to mention marginally sound stallions) probably will not be positive.

[marcus]

 i\'ve considured some of what ctc is saying eludes to and you\'ve summized that aswell in your \'long term effect senario  - any chance we\'re already seeing the effects this now ?  i\'ll never know  for sure , but oddly enough i thought barbaro\'s turf ability would translate into sturdiness and soundness .

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually an interesting observation in the middle
> of Chuckles\' hasenpfeffer (or was it chazerai?).
>
> If the entity CTC refers to as \"the Racing Gods\"
> oversaw the perpetuation of the breed, natural
> selection would govern, and injured animals would
> not be permitted to propagate.
>
> Humans and money, not the \"Gods\", rule racing.
> Overpriced underacheiving auction purchases become
> stallions based on economic necessity, not
> billiance on the racetrack.
>
> The long term effect of the introduction of large
> numbers of lightly raced and relatively unproven
> stallions (not to mention marginally sound
> stallions) probably will not be positive.

Theres a Phipps mare that recovered from a very similar catastrophic injury. They saved her for breeding. Let\'s track her progeny. Of course with a mare, you are only going to have an average of 7-8 foals during her lifetime. Barbaro would probably sire 75 or more foals his very first year. Kentucky Derby Winner, undefeated until the event, popular story, sufficient breeding, the potential for his genetic makeup to make its way insidiously and permanently into the fabric of the breed\'s bone and tendon is the concern. The probabilities indicate that Barbaro is the equivalent of the Asian Fird Flu. Who would eat a chicken from Thailand knowing it had been sick? Thats the scenario.

How many Kentucky Derby winners have come unglued like that? Is that propensity in the Triple Crown the next thing those that are involved in the sport have to become accustomed to? Will we say \"That\'s horseracing, it just goes with the territory\"? Richiebee is right of course. This is more than saving a horse out of love. It is a desperate attempt to salvage multi millions in breeding rights. And as strange as it seems there are breeders and buyers out there that would become involved with Barbaro as a stallion despite the many questions that surround his injury and careful racing history. Sometimes though, the horse gods can overcome man\'s meddling. Richardson himself said \"We\'ve never seen injuries like this, these types of horses are put down.\" They\'ve already done more than they should. Barbaro has been under stress for six plus weeks, his condition was top when he underwent surgery. That condition has certainly degraded. This second operation finds him weakened like a two once bunny with ticks in its ears. Ticks are easy enough to remove, but the little rabbit was disoriented. He was in an auto garage. We try to intervene for whatever reasons, but theres a point where the rabbit god\'s decide and a point where the horse gods decide as well.

[marcus]

At the outset of Barbaro\'s injury , I figured the horse had (about) the same chance as getting hit by lightning , aprx 85,000- 1 to survive , and aprx 600,000- 1 to breed . now with recent events those numbers might just have gone up a minimum of 3 or 4  fold .

[sighthound]

Ctc, go look at photographs of the legs of sires from 110 to about 50 years ago.  

[richiebee]

Sight..

  A fair point, but for each photo you look at, look at the race record of the stallion in the photo, and you will likely see multiple starts over 3 or 4 seasons of racing.

  Let the powers that be create an edict that an animal can not stand stud unless they attain a certain degree of success on the track. Lets say that to stand stud a horse must have at least been a stakes winner or placed in a graded stake, or have accumulated a certain level of earnings.

  I am not foolish enough to think that standards such as these would ever be implemented. Think however of the effect such standards might have: (a) overall improvement of the breed; (b) larger fields in stake races; (c) return to reality in terms of auction prices for young horses (people will not buy $1 million plus colts if there is a possibility that they will not be able to recoup their investment by standing, selling or syndicating an underqualified stallion prospect).

[TGJB]

Guys-- Hail To Reason, Raise A Native, Kris S, and Danzig. Just for starters.

[bobphilo]

richibee,

The German Jockey Club actually does have such requirements for a horse to be able to stand at stud. In addition to performance qualifications, the horse must have raced at least 2 complete seasons and have no obvious structuaral problems.
Plus, and here\'s the big one, the horses must never have raced on any medication.
I agree that we\'ll never see such regulations here, but look at the success of the program including Scirroco and other German-breds in Europe. The bigger pay-off will come in a few generations.

Bob