Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change

[HP]

Alright. I\'ve consulted my calendar. I figure Friday will shape up better. I\'ll go for Del Mar if you prefer. I\'m assuming the $1,000 bet any way works for you. All you have to do is pick the track.

Want to go for $100, Mr. Trounce? I\'m playing with Patent\'s money. Hopefully you live in NY so we can do this for cash. HP

[Michael D.]

There are major Breeder\'s Cup prep cards every w/e for the next two months. Pick any one of them, all of them, or any combination. The Friday before the Travers is bound to be filled with state bred maiden races.

[Two Bucks]

and yet another thread degenerates into a \"my dick is bigger than your\'s\" competition

[HP]

Hey it\'s not my fault. He went nuts with all this contest stuff.

Also, time and time again he comes up with this jockey stuff, which is available in the program, the newspaper and everyplace else. What does this have to do with TG? He can talk about whatever he wants, but yesterday he said, basically, \"this horse isn\'t really any better than the others but Velazquez is riding, so who cares about a short price.\" Has nothing to do with TG, and this is a bulletin board and not his newspaper, so I responded. Then he blows his top and says how he\'s defeated me by large margins.

I won\'t respond to his posts anymore, since he gets so pissed. I\'d be willing to drop the whole thing. If that\'s not good enough Michael you can let me know when you want to do it on one of those BC weekends (Sept. would be better), just for fun. HP

[Michael D.]

HP,
Facts my friend. Just post a winner before a race is run, or make some kind of reasonable showing in one of our contests. Until you do that, your rambling, blubbering posts will only make you look more and more foolish.

[HP]

Wow. Okay I\'ll take your advice. Bring on that jockey insight. HP

[dpatent1]

HP,

Glad to see that you got the money.  

I don\'t know why you want to bet into the hurricane that is Michael D.  What with all the ROI info he has and the work he has been doing getting insights into how Jerry Bailey feels when he wakes up in the morning (probably a lot like sausage making -- we don\'t want to watch that happening), you are cooked before the party even starts.  Quit while you are ahead.  Buy some T-bills or airline stocks.

BTW, I killed them at the Western Montana Fair.  I know my mules!

dp

[HP]

David,

Thanks. Don\'t antagonize the \'hurricane\'. Congrats on the mules. Congrats also to Nunzio, who picked one-two in the Saratoga Breeders Cup. Some things never change. HP

[Alydar in California]

HP wrote: \"This whole jock/ROI stat is ridiculous. It demonstrates only that if you bet ANY jockey every time out, you will lose money, since they ALL have ROI\'s under 2.00. Even the ones that have a slightly positive ROI aren\'t worth anything, since the 2.10 is not enough to make up for admission, racing forms or anything else you use/buy to play. It\'s the definition of a useless stat and a losing angle.\"

     HP: This is utter nonsense. Please tell me you didn\'t mean it.

[HP]

I\'ll try to clarify and respond Aly, since it\'s you and you must have been on vacation or something.

The jockeys cited with strong ROI\'s were Bailey and Velazquez. At the time Bailey was ahead in the jockey standings at the Spa and Velazquez was second. They both had better ROI\'s than the other jockeys mentioned. You could have easily drawn this conclusion from looking at the jockey standings. Prado is in the lead now and doubtless his ROI has improved. The jock/ROI numbers adds NOTHING to what you can see in the jockey standings in the Racing Form. The leading jockeys have the best ROI\'s mentioned. If it suits you and makes you feel good to put it into an ROI format so you know Bailey\'s ROI is $0.40 higher than Prado, great. Cash in my man!

I\'m sure you will have a lot of reasons why this jock/ROI stat is a priceless piece of info. It\'s included in the TG data and I\'m sure you\'ll do well by it. I\'ve already had this argument. Jockeys are a piece of the puzzle. You can add as much weight to it as you like. People have all kinds of crazy ideas. HP

[Alydar in California]

HP: A stat doesn\'t become \"useless\" simply because everyone has it. Your inability to get ahead of the crowd is not a good reason to get left behind the crowd. A stat can be useful to have even though it\'s insufficient to make a profit with. ROI stats are useful because they tell us something about the quality of a rider\'s mounts. They are a step forward from winning percentage, which penalizes a rider who is getting bad horses. But you know all this.

[HP]

You\'re right, Bailey\'s ROI tells you about the quality of his mounts. Otherwise you wouldn\'t know what was going on. HP

[Alydar in California]

Tell me about the caliber of D. Montoya\'s mounts.

[dpatent]

Alydar,

Please tell me how a serious better uses jockey ROI stats to improve his own ROI.

[Michael D.]

HP,
 The guy who sits next to me when I bet is a big Maryland racing fan who has been watching Prado ride for years. He has been moving up the horses Prado rides in many of the races this meet. I did not start moving up Prado\'s mounts until recently, and thus missed much of the money to be made. The jockey angle is an important one. This guy was an expert on Prado\'s riding skills, I was not. He wins, I lose. (fortunately I am not that stubborn, and have been able to capitalize on some of Prado\'s turf wins over the last few days, although at lower prices)