Allday Music

[sighthound]

I agree with that, but I think it is something that would be more likely to pop out at you as \"different\" when looking at internal fractions for a particular horse.  

Think of when a horse has historically started to fatigue.  For example, I\'d look for a horse that can suddenly hold balls-to-the-wall speed in competitive sprints, especially in it\'s third split.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richie you posted a current Aqueduct strike rate of approximately 17%. I could rest the case right here, but i\'ll go on briefly.

In the past hes won with strike rates almost twice that, which my friend is the difference between running clean and running juiced. With his quality of stock he is a legitimate 15% trainer, but then almost anyone else would be too and many would exceed that.

The misses you mentioned. Those are the races he would have won by 5 a short time ago. Lets watch him at NYRA, this is getting enjoyable.

One man crusade?...lol......hardly, theres folks after him. An example needs to be set and he\'s just the turkey to set it. That said, I do not bet Turf races. I do not bet claimers for the most part. I don\'t care what Lake and Catalano do with horses they claim. But, what irks me is for guys like the top 2 suspects who take ill bred but speedy horses and treat them with drugs to get them to stay on. What irks me even more is for those short career drug burners..i.e. the Scat Daddys and King of the Roxy\'s and Circular Quays to go on and get stud careers to pass on their inherent weaknesses and thereby hasten the dilution of the breed.

Now, in that regard, I am after Plech and Allday, but I\'m not alone and I\'m not only after them here. They need to alter their methods or go and when they do the game will better for it. I will keep after them because currently they are the most dangerous cheaters in the game. Their cheating is much more dangerous than what Lake does with a gelding. We need to cure their brand of cancer and we are going to.

Remember all those years Jerry said horses were getting faster and we were initially scratching our heads? Remember? They did run faster, but they weren\'t really getting faster. Something else was going on.

The clock is ticking on the suspects now. Things are changing.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chucker:
>
> In the DRF and probably your local newspaper they
> have \"Racing Results\".
>
> In New York on Friday, the Top Flight Handicap was
> won by Mini Sermon, trained
> by TAP. TAP also won a maiden race on the card.
>
> In New York on Saturday, Pletcher\'s Atoned, after
> clipping heels in the early
> stages of the race, nearly captured the
> Demoiselle. TAP also won the 9th race,
> a NYB turf race. TAP is as of this morning 5/29 at
> the current Aq meet, with 5
> seconds. I guess the folks who have \"Plech\'s\" barn
> staked out do not like cold
> weather.
>
> And because your theory is that TAP runners are
> only under scrutiny in New York,
> there is no need to mention his major stakes wins
> at CD and Hollywood (2) this
> weekend.
>
> Rather than trying to explain why there is a wide
> divergence between TAP\'s
> numbers in and outside of New York, why don\'t you
> work with a smaller sample
> and try to explain why TAP was able to keep
> winning Graded Stakes (where you
> would think there would be heightened scrutiny) at
> Saratoga even while his
> overall strike rate dropped below 10%?
>
> You keep mentioning LR\'s Saratoga performances.
> How could they be possible
> given the (rumored) intense scrutiny that TAP\'s
> barn is under?
>
> I follow NY racing pretty much exclusively Chuck.
> There is one high percentage
> trainer who along with his owners has repeatedly
> proven that he believes that
> the rules of racing do not apply to him. There is
> another high impact trainer
> who has gotten some eye catching results first off
> the claim (said trainer
> yesterday put over an $80 first timer with what I
> will venture to say was a
> misleading or incomplete work tab).
>
> There is plenty of cheating going on out there,
> drug fueled and otherwise. As a
> contrarian, I see your need not to go after the
> obvious miscreants but rather
> to crusade against a man who has probably saddled
> well over 15,000 runners in
> his career, yet has but one positive test result.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie you posted a current Aqueduct strike rate
> of approximately 17%. I could rest the case right
> here, but i\'ll go on briefly.
>
> In the past hes won with strike rates almost twice
> that, which my friend is the difference between
> running clean and running juiced. With his quality
> of stock he is a legitimate 15% trainer, but then
> almost anyone else would be too and many would
> exceed that.
 
CHUCK: If we are going to continue, I insist that you utilize facts when they are available to you. TAP\'s training statistics at NYRA tracks are a matter of public record. You say that  \"he\'s won with strike rates almost twice [17%]\" Chuck that would be a 34% strike rate. I hate to split hairs, and I know TAP has been slumping since the beginning of the Spa meet, but I think a modicum of research will reveal that even in TAP\'s better days his strike rate was between 20% and 25%.

> The misses you mentioned. Those are the races he
> would have won by 5 a short time ago. Lets watch
> him at NYRA, this is getting enjoyable.

CHUCK: You are saying in a general manner that TAP\'s runners are 5 lengths slower than they were a short time ago. Can you provide any empirical data to support this claim? TG #s? Beyer#s? Ragozin #s? Raw times? What do you mean by a short time ago?

As to watching TAP at NYRA, the current life expectancy of NYRA is about 20 more racing days.

 
> One man crusade?...lol......hardly, theres folks
> after him. An example needs to be set and he\'s
> just the turkey to set it. That said, I do not bet
> Turf races. I do not bet claimers for the most
> part. I don\'t care what Lake and Catalano do with
> horses they claim. But, what irks me is for guys
> like the top 2 suspects who take ill bred but
> speedy horses and treat them with drugs to get
> them to stay on. What irks me even more is for
> those short career drug burners..i.e. the Scat
> Daddys and King of the Roxy\'s and Circular Quays
> to go on and get stud careers to pass on their
> inherent weaknesses and thereby hasten the
> dilution of the breed.
>

CHUCK: (1) Who are the \"folks who are after him\"? In a previous post you tell me that I haven\'t been speaking to other handicappers or reading DRF articles that would lead me to agree with you regarding TAP and Allday\'s misdeeds. Could you cite one of these articles or name one of these handicappers so that I might be enlightened?

(2) It is fatuous to blame TAP and Allday for the glut of unqualified and underqualified stallions which are currently being bred. Blame the commercial greeders and the pinhookers, whose medication and surgical alteration of young auction prospects is finally coming under the microscope.
 
(3) \"... ill bred but speedy horses and treat them with drugs and get them to stay on\". Balto Star, a Glitterman who TAP stretched out to be effective at 1- 1/2 miles, would be a good example of this. Do you have any factual proof that this or any other TAP runner was illegally medicated?

> Now, in that regard, I am after Plech and Allday,
> but I\'m not alone and I\'m not only after them
> here. They need to alter their methods or go and
> when they do the game will better for it. I will
> keep after them because currently they are the
> most dangerous cheaters in the game. Their
> cheating is much more dangerous than what Lake
> does with a gelding. We need to cure their brand
> of cancer and we are going to.

CHUCK: The above is pure bluster. It is the kind of crap that I expect to see on the streets of a town which has just hosted a Presidential debate. If you know anything, if you have any FACTS, I would hope that you would approach one or all of the State Racing Commissions which license TAP and Allday. Tell these Commissions that you are willing to tell them EVERYTHING THAT YOU KNOW. I\'m sure they will find a minute for you.
 
> Remember all those years Jerry said horses were
> getting faster and we were initially scratching
> our heads? Remember? They did run faster, but they
> weren\'t really getting faster. Something else was
> going on.
>
> The clock is ticking on the suspects now. Things
> are changing.
>
CHUCK: The only thing that really needs to change is that when you accuse TAP and Allday of crimes against Racing, you should at least provide some factual basis for your accusations. The \"low strike rate in New York\" is a fact, I agree, but it is not a fact which you have done a good job of connecting with any cheating. Is it possible that TAPs recent lack of success in NY is attributable to higher purses and more important races being run outside of NY? Did you notice how many 5-1/2 furlong state bred turf sprints were run at the Spa this summer? Is this the type of stock TAP\'s clients usually provide him with? And you still have not explained why TAP\'s graded stakes runners were so effective at Saratoga.

You need FACTS, my friend. President John F. Kennedy, whose supporters purchased an election for him in the city in which you reside, said the following: \"The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie -- deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic. Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.\"

[miff]

\"With his quality of stock he is a legitimate 15% trainer, but then almost anyone else would be too and many would exceed that\"


Chuck,

Do a little more research on the roster of runners trained by TAP.Chuck, you could get 15% winners training that stable and any capable trainer should get 20-25%, imo.The guy is really not overachieving with that stable which leads me to \"What could he possibly be doing ILLEGALLY to achieve such ordinary results?

Don\'t you think he would \"help\" the despicable gutless Green Monkey if he had the magic bullet? Chuck, you are smart to not look at the common sense side of conspiracy idiots arguments re TAP/ALLDAY.

Mike

[BitPlayer]

Sighthound -

Thanks for the informative post.  I did a little Google search of my own and found a PDF of a PowerPoint presentation for stewards and other racing officials on the University of Louisville website:

http://cobweb2.louisville.edu/eip/Steward_Schools/Medical2007.pdf

TCO2 testing is discussed on pages 39-44.  The information provided includes an analysis of test results from 2006 at Hollywood Park.  It seems pretty clear from that info and the links you posted that (a) everyone knows some trainers are gaming the system and (b) there\'s too much innocent variability in TCO2 levels to completely stop them.  Do you know whether detention barns are an effective remedy?

TGJB, based on the Texas A&M paper abstracted in Sighthound\'s later post in this thread, it doesn\'t seem like anyone is hiding the TCO2 test results from people who are really interested in studying them.  What has been your experience in trying to get them?  What would you propose to do with them if you had them?

[TGJB]

I have talked extensively about this with the leaders in one major racing state, and a) they know it is going on, and how it is being done, b) they know who is doing it, and c) I haven\'t been able to get them to publish the CO2 results. Yet.

[TGJB]

You can tell from the figures. Trust me.

There was a recent case of a well known trainer having a reading of 42 (he must have really screwed up, like maybe treated the horse twice). Don\'t know if they announced that one yet, or if he took days and kept his mouth shut.

Richie-- if you are following this, you can see that whether a trainer has any infractions is beside the point.

[TGJB]

I look forward to reading the whole thing. And I would look forward even more to seeing the underlying data broken out by trainer.

The fact that OTHER things can affect CO2 levels is not the point. There are ways to deal with that (NYRA has one, which is that if a horse hits the threshold level the trainer has the option of having him quarantined and tested again a couple of days later). The problem, again, is that nobody hits the threshold level because it is too high.

Publishing the CO2 levels is the way to start dealing with this. Sure, let\'s say a horse can come up high from other things. But if a trainer averages significantly higher than the others it would be indicative. At that point the press and public pressure would kick in, and the wheels would start to turn.

[miff]

JB,

If it is happening at this major track,would it not be apparent to those of us who follow closely and yourself from the figs?


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- YES. That\'s what prompted my conversations with them.

[fkach]

>I think it is something that would be more likely to pop out at you as \"different\" when looking at internal fractions for a particular horse.

Think of when a horse has historically started to fatigue. For example, I\'d look for a horse that can suddenly hold balls-to-the-wall speed in competitive sprints, especially in it\'s third split.<

I agree with you.

IMO, all horses are not equal. I think it\'s highly likely that the same performance enhancer given in equal quantities to two different horses would produce very different benefits.

For example:

There are some super cheap claimers out there that can run 4F in 44-45 on a fairly regular basis, but they totally collapse at 6F or longer. That\'s why they are cheap claimers. At the same time there are stakes caliber horses that can\'t run 4F that fast, but they win stakes races.

They are two entirely different types of horses. One is more brilliant but lacking stamina and the other is more even paced but with greater reserves of energy and stamina.  

Does anyone actually think that a speed biased racetrack, slow pace, or drug that helps with stamina and breathing is going to help these two horses equally?

I don\'t and I don\'t bet that way either!

I do think that giving performance enhancers will help most horses.  That will show up as improved speed figures (faster). But I think a better way of looking at these things is to take into account the fact that horses are almost certainly impacted differently depending on their own strengths and weaknesses, the type of enhancer they are given, and conditions they race under.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

Did this particular state recently host the BC?

Been a lot strange jump up figs down there this past year. And not just from the usual suspects.

[TGJB]

I\'m not going there, SC. But if you are talking about Kentucky, find my recent post about them not testing last fall. All indications are that they don\'t care at all, which is not true of the state I am referring to, where they are taking some action. Problem is nobody wants a scandal, so it\'s under the radar.

[Silver Charm]

I didn\'t bring up Kentucky, you did. And as far as I know Kentucky didn\'t just recently host a BC and may not for some time with the stance track mgmt is taking.

Hey I know a trend when I see one. When a Pletcher runner wins by a dozen or more at Monmouth then ships back to NY and is dead on the board.

Somthins up............................

[Street Sense]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You can tell from the figures. Trust me.
>
> There was a recent case of a well known trainer
> having a reading of 42 (he must have really
> screwed up, like maybe treated the horse twice).
> Don\'t know if they announced that one yet, or if
> he took days and kept his mouth shut.
>
> Richie-- if you are following this, you can see
> that whether a trainer has any infractions is
> beside the point.


TG, I trust that your information is accurate and that ticks me off.  I realize I\'m preaching to the choir so I\'m not really asking you when I ask why in the hell aren\'t they reporting all positives?  There should be a weekly list printed in every print racing publication of all positives across the country.  It should be on their websites.  Why doesn\'t anyone stand up?