Pattern Planning

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t count the number of horses the last couple years that were nursed along for a top Derby effort only to Flop as badly or worse than horses that prepped up honestly. It\'s a major Charade.

Like anything, if enough of them are nursed along with ridiculously light schedules, one day a horse will come along and win the Derby with only 4, 3 or even 2 starts.

Pyro will have had three 3YO starts pre Derby and he had a legitimate 2YO campaign which are both historically sufficient to win it provided you think he can run  his eyeballs out and match his 2YO top a la Street Sense. So, we really aren\'t discussing Gasmussen\'s attempts to get Pyro to his best on Derby Day. We are talking Denis of Cork skipping the Rebel and thats something else entirely.

[Flighted Iron]

You really had me fooled.Looking at the subject title I thought you were going
to tell us about your wall paper adventures.

 If it\'s a charade,and they are only fooling themselves,they won\'t know it until
it\'s passed them.Think of all the experience and current knowledge applied to
a decision.I ask you to do the research of the flip-side.How many times has a
horse flopped for no good reason when it\'s been handled with near unquestionable
astuteness? Immense individualism and the unknown factors.I\'m not sure we have
anyone from M.I.T. currently training,so it seems playing the percentages is
the smart play.

[fkach]

We all obviously agree that trying to get your horse to peak for the Derby is the right approach. The issue is whether skipping races and racing your horse lightly because of figure patterns is worth the potential downsides of lost experience, seasoning, foundation etc... heading into the Derby.

If you don\'t think anything is lost on the experience, seasoning etc... side of the equation when horses only have 3-5 starts, then the point is moot. You might as well race lightly and skip a race in your effort to get a peak at the right time.

But if you believe something is lost, then you have to weigh that \"potential\" loss against the \"potential\" benefits of skipping races and coming in with fewer preps based on figure patterns etc...

Here are some of the potential problems with using figure patterns.

1. You have to assume that the figure or figure pattern you are basing your adjusted schedule upon is actually an accurate reflection of the horse\'s ability, performance, and effort in each race. That\'s not meant to be a reflection on the figures here. I am assuming that people use a variety of figure sources. So some could easily be wrong, inaccurate reflections of effort, or disagree with other sources.

2. Even if the figures are perfect reflections of performance, ability, and effort, you have to assume they will have a negative impact on your horse if you don\'t skip a race or give him more preps.

For me, all of these things are legitimate question marks.

I would probably make the decision on a horse by horse basis depending on how much seasoning I thought the horse had already gotten, needed, and how big my concern was about peaking at the wrong time or damaging the horse.

[miff]

It is comical that some believe that a trainer can actually gear a horse up or down when he/she wishes,like with an off/on switch.Horses come in and out of form cycles and good health randomly, not only because some human skill/horsemanship is totally responsible. All a trainer can do with a really talented upcoming horse is stay out of it\'s way mostly and do the things which he feels this particular horse responds to.Any honest trainer will tell you that good fortune and lack of setbacks is the most critical piece of the derby puzzle.It doesn\'t take a genius to observe a horse train every day and make a fairly accurate assessment of how the animal is doing.


I will take the worst trainer with the absolute best horse every time over the best trainer with \"no horse\" How do you quantify best trainer/worst trainer anyway unless they have equal stock? Who is is this years training genius, haven\'t heard that yet.


Mike

[fkach]

To a large extent I agree with you, but it\'s pretty clear that many horses peak a few races after a layoff depending on how sharp they were when they came back. So trainers might as well try to get the probabilities on their side in an effort to get a peak on the right day.

[miff]

Fkach,

Agree that should be the strategy but you would be surprised at the failure rate vs the success rate of that endeavor.


Mike

[Lance]

\"It is comical that some believe that a trainer can actually gear a horse up or down when he/she wishes,like with an off/on switch.\"

Tell that to the ghost of Charlie Whittingham.

Maybe I\'m old school and you find my view \"comical,\" but I\'m of the mind that the very best trainers, the oats-and-hay hard boots -- guys like Drysdale, Mott, Nafzger and Mandella -- are indeed capable of getting horses to \"peak\" when they want them to...if things go as planned (weather, injuries, etc.).

Certainly, horses\' form cycles go up and down. But by modulating a horse\'s training regimen, I absolutely believe that a top-flight trainer can condition his charge in such a way that he is ready for his best performance on a designated date. It\'s no different than a human athlete training, say, for a weight-lifting competition. You would structure your workout program over a period of time in such a way that you are ready to lift maximum weight on the day of the competition.

[miff]

Lance,

I\'m kinda old school too. Explain why Mott, Nafzger, Drysdale and Mandella are the \"best\" trainers and how they do when their stock is mediocre or just plain slow.


Mike

[Lance]

Mike, I think the era of the \"super trainer\" has diminished the importance of serious horsemanship, as has the watering-down effect of super-rich races (Delta Jackpot, anyone?) all over the country.

That said, my opinion that guys like Mott, Drysdale, Shug, etc. are the \"best\" trainers is based on years of observation, years of witnessing their ability to develop a horse and prime him/her for a peak performance when it matters most. Look, for instance, at their Breeders Cup records. (The Breeders Cup is a good example for this discussion, both because it\'s a rich target on a pre-determined date and because surveillance and testing are at their highest.) Shug has 9 wins from 49 tries; almost half his runners have hit the board. Mandella: 6 wins from 26 tries. Drysdale: 6 wins from 33 tries.

My point is this: When these guys have really good horses, they know how to train these animals to get them to peak when it matters most. And when they have mediocre or slow stock, they only win mediocre or slowly run races. A trainer -- at least an oats-and-hay trainer -- can\'t make an animal run any faster than genetics allow, but he CAN control the training regimen such that an animal performs at his very best for a certain race.

That\'s just my opinion, of course. I\'m sure there are flaws in my logic (my wife usually thinks there are) -- but I\'m just telling you how I see it. I\'m more than willing to read and consider wildly different opinions.

Thanks,
Lance

[miff]

Lance,

We do agree, really.What you say is true and I assume you know that all solid experienced horseman  strive to do the same,i.e. peak on the big day, not before/after. I have been around many trainers over many years in NY and do not know of one who \"does it\" much differently from his fellow trainers (Maybe Alan Jerkens a little).When I hear that so and so trainer really knows how to point one for the big race, I believe that is comical.

Like apples in a barrel, pick one of 50 experienced trainers and they will get very close to the same result with the same horse, imo.

Good Luck
Mike

[Flighted Iron]

Miff,

  Anything to say besides the obvious?

[miff]

\"My main focus with him leading up to the Derby is to try to get his fitness level where we need it on the big day,\" Zito said. \"Some might feel these first two races were unconventional prepwise, but we already know what he is. He doesn\'t have to show he belongs. He\'s already the champion.\"


....wonder if the great Nafzager would do it much differently or any other trainer that had this horse all along.

[BitPlayer]

Miff –

It\'s actually kind of interesting that Nafzger and Zito have taken different approaches to similar problems.  They both had a horse run fast enough in the BC to win the Derby, so they had no issues about needing to get graded earnings or step it up a notch.  Nafzger opted for only 2 preps, while Nick is going for 3.  Nafzger took on Any Given Saturday in his first prep, while Zito took on a weak allowance field followed by Big Truck and Atoned.  Nafzger went through the Blue Grass on a synthetic surface, even though he knew it might mean getting his horse beat.  Zito is going to the Wood.  I think Nick is partly driven by wanting to keep his colt unbeaten, whereas Nafzger didn\'t have that pressure.  To some extent, Zito is going back to his old ways in bringing War Pass along slowly.  And, of course, Zito is primarily a NY trainer, while Nafzger is more comfortable in Kentucky.

[fkach]

>>>My main focus with him leading up to the Derby is to try to get his fitness level where we need it on the big day,\" Zito said. \"Some might feel these first two races were unconventional prepwise, but we already know what he is. He doesn\'t have to show he belongs. He\'s already the champion.\"


....wonder if the great Nafzager would do it much differently or any other trainer that had this horse all along.>>>>

It\'s funny because I think he might be making a mistake with this horse.

Ideally, what he\'s doing makes a lot of sense. But most horses with 5-6 races heading into the the Derby don\'t have PPs like War Pass.

WP has never done anything other than go wire to wire on a loose lead. He\'s never been behind horses, inside or between horses, banged around hard in traffic, dueled with another quality speed, forced very wide on the first turn going for the lead from an outside post etc...

So what Zito is betting is that giving him all these super easy prep races against extremely weak competition is better than having him ready for that moment in the Derby when he\'s likely to be asked to do several things for the very first time.

If I owned the horse, I would be hoping for a tougher trip in the Wood to get this horse ready for what\'s he\'s likely to experience Derby day. Ideally, a tougher race just prior to the Derby is not so hot either, but that\'s what you face when you put the 2YO Champion of the Year in with a bunch of ALW horses in his preps. You get him fit without taxing him, but he experiences nothing.

[Lance]

\"WP has never done anything other than go wire to wire on a loose lead. He\'s never been behind horses, inside or between horses, banged around hard in traffic, dueled with another quality speed, forced very wide on the first turn going for the lead from an outside post etc...

So what Zito is betting is that giving him all these super easy prep races against extremely weak competition is better than having him ready for that moment in the Derby when he\'s likely to be asked to do several things for the very first time.\"

***

Well said. And we saw how well that worked with he of the 120 Beyer, Bellamy Road.