Big Brown is BOSS

[TGJB]

Actually, there are two Street Senses pointing for the Derby.

You guys need to take a look at the question of 2yo tops and development. Other than Monarchos, most win with a number within 6-7 points of their 2yo top (especially recently-- SS won by just coming back to it, SJ didn\'t even have to run his top). What number will it take to win?

Also remember that relatively few horses run new tops in the Derby, so if they are not fast enough to win going in, they probably won\'t.

[magicnight]

Bit;

\"Barbaro worked only twice between his Florida and Kentucky Derbies, with the first work not coming until 3 weeks after the Florida Derby\"

And what happened in Baltimore two weeks on? Re BB\'s soundness, this may not be your best comparison (as they both started out on turf and had a lot of white space in their sheets).

Bob

[fkach]

I\'m not sure I buy into all this bearing out/in issue with BB.

As a general rule, I don\'t like the idea any more than anyone else. But I really didn\'t see a horses that was drifting out or bearing in because of soreness etc...

It looked to me like he was drifting out a little in early stretch and the jock used the right hand whip to straighten him out. Then the horse overreacted in response. Had the horse kept bearing out despite right handed whipping or continued bearing in despite left handed whipping I would be more concerned. I would also be concerned if he didn\'t finish or gallop out well. I thought he was striding out well both at the finish and afterwards. Granted, I am not an expert in this kind of analysis, but I think people might be overthinking this.

IMO what we have here is a highly talented horse with a history of physical issues. Most likely he also hasn\'t had the ideal preparation (though not terrible either) for peaking on the first Saturday in May at 10F at CD. Those are risks, but IMO they aren\'t clear eliminations either. They may also get clarified a bit in the next few weeks when we get to see him work some more.

[TGJB]

Again-- if you watch closely, you will see BB take a bad step coming to the 16th pole (you can see his head drop), followed by an immediate left turn. Doesn\'t necessarily affect what happens 5 weeks later, but it can\'t be a plus.

Big jumps to big numbers almost always hurt. Magic\'s comments about Barbaro are right on target-- he\'s a great example (and some of us took a big position against him BEFORE the Preakness).

[TGJB]

In the last 5 years--

Every Derby winner ran at least a 4 1/2 at two.

Three out of the five won without a new top.

Now granted, the synthetics may be screwing everything up...

[fkach]

I looked at the replay several times and saw the bad step.

I\'m not saying he\'s a mortal lock to duplicate his last race, that I think a three race career is ideal to get a horse ready for the unique challenges of the Derby, or that he\'s not having some problems as we discuss this.

What I am suggesting is that it\'s possible people may be looking for a reason to bet against him because he\'ll be the favorite (most likely) and are grasping at the fact that he did a dance down the stretch as a reason without watching how well he went out after that.

I may bet against him myself, but it won\'t be for that reason.

It will be because he\'s not acting right in his works leading up to the Derby (which I would consider more solid evidence that something is amiss again) or because I don\'t think he\'s going to get a good enough pace set up to hold off some of the quality closers (some of which still have another race).

I am also less apt to just throw him out off the fast figure because I think it was a very legitimate performance and I thought he flashed exceptional potential right from the start of his career. I thought many of the other 3YOs with fast figures that disappointed in past years earned them under ideal conditions etc... that made it less likely they would. Different strokes I guess.

[TGJB]

This had to come up sooner or later (and CTC and anyone else who wants to challenge the Wood figure are barred from commenting): Bellamy Road.

That one even got me. He had a MUCH better 2yo foundation than BB (not only ran 5 1/2, paired it up), and a faster top, which represented about the same jump. And he didn\'t take any bad steps or lug in. He had four weeks rest. Boing.

Big jumps to big numbers hurt.

[BitPlayer]

Magicnight -

My point in that regard was really more that working back in less than two weeks would be unusual and should not be taken as a sign of a problem.  I chose to look back at Barbaro because he was an example of a horse who had come to Churchill out of the Florida Derby when it had been moved to 5 weeks out and because his works had obviously kept him fit enough for a good run in the Derby.

If you look instead at horses coming out of the Florida Derby last year: Imawildandcrazyguy had 2 works (with the first 3 weeks after Florida) and Scat Daddy and Stormello had 3 works (with the first 2 weeks after Florida).

I don\'t usually read much into works unless a pattern has an obvious gap.

As for Big Brown, he already has some of my money as part of the field in futures pool 2 at 6/1, so I\'m not planning to bet him again at 3/1.  I did make a small hedge bet in futures pool 3, on the theory that there were some prices in there you won\'t see again if BB doesn\'t make the gate.

[fkach]

I\'m pretty sure I commented on Bellamy Road prior to his Derby, but if not I certainly did elsewhere. We are going to get into a subjective area that we will have to agree to disagree about, but I hated Bellamy Road in the Derby for other reasons.

He came out of Derby with an injury. So I understand your perspective very well. I just think there\'s more going on in some of these figure fluctuations.  

IMHO, the AQU surface he ran his big figure on was about as friendly to speed types as the main track gets. A few horses did close that day, but that was only after the jockeys started gunning some of their horses and setting very fast fractions trying to get to the lead.

I think BR ran a big race in the Wood, but not as good as the figure suggests. To be clear, I think the figure was correct. It was just earned with a loose lead, against a very subpar Wood field, on a day that favored his style. It was a perfect trip for him.

Going into the Derby, he drew an outside post in a race that looked like it was loaded with a ton of speed. So he was going from the best possible trip scenario to the worst possible trip scenario as the hyped favorite. IMO he ran about as well as I expected.

As it was, I also said after the race that given his trip he had run quite well in the Derby (you can compare his trip to the other speeds and see their relative finishes). He also came back to run a figure somewhere in between the Wood and Derby in the Travers (a highly likely outcome IMO because the trip was more neutral).  

Again, I do understand your perspective about the toll these big figure performances can take and often agree. I think it\'s less prevalent than some suspect. Maybe I\'m just wrong.

[magicnight]

Bit-

Yeah, I understand the point you were making and it\'s certainly a valid one ... just thought that the example of Barbaro could also be used to make a separate point, so I piled on.

Actually, with the benefit of hindsight and the Fla Derby result, it looks like that 6-1 on the field in pool 2 was/is the smartest way to bet BB in the Derby. Good bet and good luck!

Bob

[Eight Belles]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually, there are two Street Senses pointing for
> the Derby.
>
> You guys need to take a look at the question of
> 2yo tops and development. Other than Monarchos,
> most win with a number within 6-7 points of their
> 2yo top (especially recently-- SS won by just
> coming back to it, SJ didn\'t even have to run his
> top). What number will it take to win?
>
> Also remember that relatively few horses run new
> tops in the Derby, so if they are not fast enough
> to win going in, they probably won\'t.

But things are changing so much.  I used to think that foundation and layoffs coming into the race were very important, enough to toss those who didn\'t meet the minimum requirement.  But now we have all sorts of shooters who are bucking tradition in one way or another that I think we have to toss the old rules out the window.  We\'ve gotten almost like Europe where they\'ll have half the field lining up for their first race of the year in the Epsom Derby.  If we line up 20 maidens for the Derby, a maiden will win the Derby.  I just don\'t see where 2yo form has much to do with Derby performance, at least as it pertains to this Derby, where it seems so wide open.

[Eight Belles]

I\'m going to take a beating to say this at this forum, but I\'ll take my chances.  

Two things about numbers: 1) The very top horses don\'t run normal numbers or patterns, and 2) Your eyes are better than any number if you know what you\'re looking at.

So if you believe Big Brown is an exceptional horse, you shouldn\'t worry about what number he ran last time.  Exceptional horses aren\'t normal horses.

And my eyes told me that Big Brown had an easy time of the Florida Derby, regardless of what a number indicates he should\'ve spent physically.

Believing that Big Brown is head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders, and believing the Florida Derby didn\'t take too big of a toll on him to recoup in 5 weeks, the only things I\'m concerned about regarding him is how he looks when he gets to Churchill.  If there\'s no whisperings about his feet and he\'s getting raves for his work from Haskin and others, then I\'d give him a 50-60% chance of winning (the most I think you can give any horse in that calvary charge).

[TGJB]

Do you need a bookmaker?

[Eight Belles]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Do you need a bookmaker?

Meaning?

[Frank]

I think he means that those of us that do believe in numbers and patterns appreciate the contributions to the mutuel pools from those that do not believe in the numbers but would rather believe their eyes.