Real Shame Eight Belles is going in the Derby

[smalltimer]

Lost Cause,
It\'s complicated. You don\'t wanna know.  (lol)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richbot,

I want to talk New York Bred Slow Rats for a moment. Did you watch that Arkansas Derby?

Z Fortune was wide on both turns and timed a run, (granting the fractions were hot), down the lane, Robbie A., got to left hand whipping Z-Car and it was looking like it might be close. Then Robbie did the inexplicable. He deftly transfered the whip to his right hand and began right hand whipping Z-Car just at a time when it appeared that Gayego was bearing out slightly. To my eye, it deftly resulted in a break in momentum sufficient for Gayego to hold the Slow Rat safe. After the wire Z-Car galloped out with authority and passed Gayego with a nice stride and his ears pricked. You definitely don\'t get the full picture reading the fractional beaten lengths from the Racing Form.

Z-Car came from the 10 hole and raced a wide slightly off pace race. But for the path issue late (Reminded me of Captain Bodgit in the loss to Silver Charm) in my opinion he was getting to Gayego.

Right now, I do like both the exacta horses from the Arkansas Derby (Pre Post Draw) and think Gayego may be the King of the West. Regarding the Rat\'s breeding his mom won at 9 poles and Siphon is bred strong.

I\'ll talk about the fairer sex post gate draw.

 richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckuine Risk:
>
> I\'m wondering why, given Eight Belles\' love for
> the Hot Springs oval, owner R.
> Porter did not throw EB against the boys in the
> Ark Derby. Not like there were
> any world beaters in that race, although I know
> you fancy to an extent the
> Siphon sired NYBSR in next week\'s Derby.
>
> To repeat a little scrap I have been spouting ad
> clownfinitum, both recent
> distaff Derby darlings had their final prep vs
> 3YOs of the masculine kind:
> Genuine Risk was 3rd in the Wood (second?) and
> Winning Colors blitzed the boys
> in the SA Derby. 134 year history of the Derby and
> I\'ve got a 3 year sample for
> you.
>
> Remember the quote from trainer Jones: Eight Bs
> would go to the Derby because
> (a)she was doing so well and (b) because the owner
> really wanted to go to the
> Derby. To translate this into English from
> trainerspeak, simply reverse \"(a)\"
> and \"(b)\". The owner wants to go. The numbers back
> him up this year, and he
> enters his charge against a field which as yet has
> not shown recent brilliance
> save one. I think if it was up to the trainer
> here, EB would be an Oaks entrant.
>
> Numbers wise if I will go 4-6 deep in terms of
> wagering, she would not be any
> higher than selection 6 on any of my tickets. And
> don\'t forget, EB will be
> getting lots of support for all the wrong reasons
> (a la Hilary C.) (another
> filly who did OK coming out of Arkansas, but seems
> to be struggling against the
> boys), possibly artificially diminishing her
> value.
>
> Can she translate her sharp OP form to CD?

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee,
>
> Respectfully disagree.  While I know that Winning
> Colors and Genuine Risk data points are certainly
> true, the game has changed a bit since then.  If
> possible, thoroughbreds have gotten even more
> fragile since then. (statistics point that out).
>
> Running a filly, even an amazon filly against
> colts, on dirt, at classic distances, takes a lot
> out of a filly.  Please see Rags to Riches last
> year.  
>
> There is one bullet in the gun, I believe.  If you
> think you can win the Kentucky Derby by ambushing
> an inferior crop of 3 year old colts, do it.
> Winning the Arkansas Derby has no real value.
> Nobody remembers who won the Arkansas Derby.  I am
> not sure I would be trying the colts with my
> filly, but if I did, i would be doing what they
> are doing.  Prep against the fillies, then try and
> step up and beat the colts ONE TIME.

Jimbo:

Very few people remember Cupecoy\'s Joy and the parade of unsuccessful fillies who
have been unwisely sacrificed at the Derby altar, but many people remember Althea,
who won the 84 Arkansas Derby for Lukas/ P. Val.

The point of my post, besides harassing Chuckles and TGJB\'s favorite presidential
candidate, was that Eight Belles is primarily headed for the Derby because her
owner wants her to be there.

I\'d much rather bet on a runner whose owner is reluctant to go but whose trainer
is anxious to enter.

Think of how many Triple Crown races have been run--nearly 400? Yielding 3
female Derby winners and 2 female Belmont winners. The two recent Derby winners
were brilliant--Winning Colors a lights out pace runner and Genuine Risk a gritty
grinder. As to Rags to Riches, I will just say that she was bred for the trip
and caught a bunch of colts who were a bit tired from their spring campaigns.

Racing has not changed as much as you might believe--fillies still get a 5 pound
weight allowance. Fillies and mares have carved a niche for themselves at the
highest levels, with some brilliant wins in the BC Sprint and BC Mile, but the
glass ceiling still exists in the Triple Crown races.

A filly has to be very special to compete even against a mediocre crop of Derby
colts; what I see in Eight Belles is a filly who flourished at Hot Springs and
whose owner has a Derby \"jones\" (no pun intended).

For me, Eight Belles is an easy toss from the top spot.

[TGJB]

Richie-- I feel compelled to point out to anyone who doesn\'t know me that Hillary is not my favorite candidate for anything, ever.

Not offering an opinion on Eight Belles, but if you want to do a study it\'s not how many fillies have won those 400 TC races, but what percentage of the fillies entered have won, as opposed to what percentage of the colts entered.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah, what Jerry said, and I\'d throw in how did the Fast fillies do?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=CO6MziOvmD4

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie-- I feel compelled to point out to anyone
> who doesn\'t know me that Hillary is not my
> favorite candidate for anything, ever.
>
> Not offering an opinion on Eight Belles, but if
> you want to do a study it\'s not how many fillies
> have won those 400 TC races, but what percentage
> of the fillies entered have won, as opposed to
> what percentage of the colts entered.