Let me clarify:
First, the extra distance BB has to travel is less than 5 feet, so it really is insignificant in and of itself. Second, I was not commenting on BB\'s chances, per se, just the general angst people have about post position, which is, based on past history, way overblown -- just look at where the winners and top three have come from over the past 15 years. Inside, outside, you name it.
Nobody knows how the first 1/4 mile will shape up, other than there are 3-4 horses that will be somewhere in or near the lead group. Desormeaux can likely choose either to grab the lead if he does not want to go wide, or drop in behind.
The larger question is whether BB is going to fire something near his best at 1 1/4 miles. He\'s the fastest horse on both Ragozin and TG. I think his last top was not as severe on Ragozin so he looks like less of a bounce candidate using Rags, but there are always the breeding and hoof questions.
I agree with the earlier poster that BB is the key to analyzing the race because he towers over this bunch based on his last two races. Then there are 5 or 6 horses that should get the distance, have o.k. patterns, and decent numbers. There are five more horses that I can\'t bring myself to toss but are \"third tier\" (slightly slower than the second group and/or somewhat weaker patterns). Then there are 7 clear throw outs based on numbers and pattern and a couple others that I\'m going to toss just on breeding alone.
In betting races, I always employ some kind of hedge, and sometimes multiple hedges. I\'m going to key BB in one \"theory\" of the race and in another throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and hope that it sticks.
Based on ML odds and my ML I do not see a lot of value in the race unless you get at least two of BB, Col John, and Pyro out of the Tri/Super -- which is a distinct possibility.
