Mr. Fantasy and the Gotham

[covelj70]

So, I was looking back through the ROTW archives yesterday and I stumbled upon the very interesting analysis that TG posted regarding the sheet dynamics for horses that have run 1 negative or better before July of their 3 year old year.  For anyone who hasn\'t seen it, it\'s really fascinating.  I remember looking at it last year but I had forgotten how dramatic the results were (somewhat small sample size notwithstanding).

Anyway, the bottom-line is that the study shows that, between 2000 and 2007, there are only 4 horses who paired up their figure in the race after a 1 negative or better before July of their 3 year old year.  I guess Big Brown would have been the 5th in the Fla and Kentucy Derby last year so let\'s make that 5 horses in total.  The 5 were Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Songster and Egg Head.  The study goes on to further prove that horses that come back from these big efforts within 30 days are even more likely to bounce badly.

Why is this relevant to the Gotham?  Well, Mr. Fantasy ran a .5 negative in his first race and then came back to pair it up with a 0 in his second race.  Now, I know the study looked at 1 negative as the cutoff and we are talking .5 negative for Mr. Fantasy so it\'s not exactly apples to apples but I think it\'s close enough to make an important point.

Is Mr. Fantasy a freak?  That\'s a pretty salty group that was able to accomplish that feat.  

Now, it\'s worth nothing that the cumulative effect of those big efforts is going to have an impact on the horse at some point just as it did with Brownie in the Preakness and Belmont and Smarty in the Belmont, etc and I also don\'t think Mr, Fantasy really wants 1 1/4 based on the EDubai on the top side so I don\'t think we are talking about a Derby winner but for the purposes of Sat, we may be looking at a freak.

He will be a terrible bet on Saturday (I prediect he goes off 6-5) as he will get hammered down with all of the West Point money but he could be something special based on how he handled that huge first figure on such short rest.

[Wrongly]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49494/the-fastest-horse-in-the-gothamby-far

Nice piece.

[covelj70]

the funny post mortem to all of this is that these guys begged me to take a piece of this horse with them this summer.  They kept telling me that he was going to be a freak but I laughed at them for paying $280k for a NY Bred by E Dubai.

I am such a moron.

[Silver Charm]

Cove the only thing worse was you then put the money in the market.

Nice Summary TGJB. There are a lot of exciting 3YO out there as we hit March Madness which really began last Sat on Feb 28th

[Lost Cause]

Shug\'s horse and the California Shipper have had no time to acclimate, so i\'m tossing.

[miff]

Cov,

With the presence of Haynesfield and Imperial Council, I don\'t know about 6/5. Very interesting to me that I Want Revenge never ran better than a TG 6 in Cali despite being a nose and then 1 1/2 lengths off Pioneer of the Nile. Where have I seen a slow fig Cali runner before??

Did not see all the sources yet but Mr. Fantasy (visually impressive both times) is not as fast on other data. Beyer,adjusted, has him at 2 and then 3 in his first two starts and only slightly faster than a few in there.

If Mr.Fantasy regresses, it may also be due to the fact that he will not be beating up on the Sisters Of The Poor on Saturday. Good Luck!

Mike

[Wrongly]

Temps look to be upper 50\'s to lower 60\'s, I don\'t think it\'s as much of an issue like last weekend.  Heck these temps might just perk em up a bit.

[Lost Cause]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Temps look to be upper 50\'s to lower 60\'s, I don\'t
> think it\'s as much of an issue like last weekend.
> Heck these temps might just perk em up a bit.


Thanks,
Just noticed the weather report myself..

[Flighted Iron]

Miff
I also found IWR interesting and disheartening at M/L 3-1.Tell me,do you think
it\'s reasonable and or valueable to consider IWR\'s 6\'s as possible 4\'s with the
poly-turf to dirt transition?

mjs

[big18741]

Will be interesting to see how they bet the top five morning line horses.

Might take a shot with Russell Road 20-1 ML keyed underneath Mr Fantasy.

[miff]

Iron,

Figs aside, the race shape/ship/first dirt is not the best for him.His figs are app equal to all others in the race except for Mr. Fantasy who is faster(a point or so) on all other reliable data.Good Luck

Mike

[Josephus]

I like both of TAP\'s horses.  Check out the trainers of the 3 horses behind Naos in his Pha race; not the usual Pha trainers.  Also I think Imperial Council is going to step up big, and I have to use IWR somewhere although I\'m not crazy about him.

[bobphilo]

In a race filled with early speed I like Masala as the best closer. His figs are about good as the rest with great potential to improve, at a price to boot.
Also like him in an Exacta box with Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council.

Good luck all,
Bob

[bobphilo]

Apparently the jockeys can read the Form too and IWR was the only one to challenge MF for the early lead and they got away with a very easy pace. IC did well to close strongly from well off the slow pace but was no threat to the winner.

Bob

[ronwar]

So either IWR got a huge new top or the entire field bounced pretty bad.