Wood

[ajkreider]

I wonder if Pletcher still wishes he had scratched Dunkirk out of the FD in favor of the Wood.  Visually, the most impressive race of the year to me.

[toppled]

While I have no doubt it was visually impressive, my lack of respect for I Want Revenge\'s Derby chances have increased, not decreased by that performance.  If Dunkirk had been in the Wood, IWR would have never been able to win after that start like he did against the band of rats he faced yesterday.  In fact, the slow start means he expended a lot more energy beating an over-matched group than he would have needed to do under ordinary circumstances.  To paraphrase the late Horatio Luro, Mullins may be squeezing the lemon dry too soon.  Speaking of Mullins, it\'s deja vu all over again (thanks Yogi).  The guy has a great track record getting wins in the last Derby prep-see the Santa Anita Derby 2003-2005. However, he has yet to show he can translate those wins into anything in Louisville.  Sure, IWR is in an entirely different sheet # atmosphere than his SA Derby winners, but I still believe Mullins is better at getting his horses ready for the pre-Derby races than the Derby. I\'m also not thrilled with the bi-coastal shuttling of a top Derby contender.

[Silver Charm]

If he thought his horse was going to be running over a safer race track, then I think the answer is obvious.

[Michael D.]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wonder if Pletcher still wishes he had scratched
> Dunkirk out of the FD in favor of the Wood.
> Visually, the most impressive race of the year to
> me.


Dunk wins this race with his Fla Derby figure. They don\'t take the graded earnings away because the other horse broke poorly and was checked.

[ajkreider]

If that was his reason, sure.  My impression was that he thought the track took away a win, and thus graded earnings - not the safety issue.

[firmturf]

When he broke bad I thought of Jerry\'s comments on these boards about horses coming off top efforts having slow starts.

[jimbo66]

Toppled,

Good luck with that opinion.  Take off the shaded glasses, if the wood made you less impressed with the horse.  Gimme a break.  Spot the field 5 lengths, give away your normal tactical speed running style, get stuck behind a wall of horses, bull your way through, and win for fun.

This is a serious serious race horse.  Period.  I don\'t care what the figure he got yesterday was.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Not so sure about that.  While Dunkirk\'s Fla Derby figure was likely better than IWR\'s figure yesterday, he will almost always give away ground loss to a horse like I want revenge, who has more push button speed and the ability to be placed closer to the pace (when he breaks).

Firmturf,

I thought of the same comment from JB about \"things always seem to happen to horses sitting on a \"bounce line\"\", like a stumbling start, But the horse recovered and won the race easily once he got room.  IWR\'s sheet will make for a good discussion point going into the derby for the \"purists\" versus the \"intangibles handicappers\".  He will have bounced 3 points or so yesterday, and could be sitting on a big \"x\" and thus many will throw him out.  But those that \"adjust\" numbers in their minds and look at intangibles, will say it was not a bounce and he showed that he is one helluva race horse in that he can win when things don\'t go his way.  Disregard IWR at your own risk.  Now, after the fact, we can say he beat a horrible field, but many had Imperial Council in their top 10 or so derby horses, and is not even in the same league as IWR.

[miff]

Another strong performance by IWR, but against not one \"runner\".His figure and margin of victory will not reflect how superior he was yesterday.I disagree that he had to run hard to make up for the poor break, he \"ran\" maybe the last eighth of a mile.Showed a new dimension eating lots of dirt also.

If Old Fashioned wins big on Sat(he should) and Dunkirk gets in the derby, it will be a great betting race.


Mike

[Rick B.]

I agree. That was quite a performance by IWR.
 
Problem is, he\'ll be a short price in 4 weeks, and that makes him tough to accept in what will be a pretty deep Ky. Derby field...even if you are not part of the \"I-hate-Mullins\" and / or \"I-hate-IEAH\" crowds like some here.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Not so sure about that.  While Dunkirk\'s Fla Derby
> figure was likely better than IWR\'s figure
> yesterday, he will almost always give away ground
> loss to a horse like I want revenge, who has more
> push button speed and the ability to be placed
> closer to the pace (when he breaks).

Talamo/IWR vs Gomez/Dunkirk? Dunk will usually lose a few paths in ground, but I wouldn\'t give IWR a huge tactical edge there.

I have nothing against IWR Jim. He looks real. My only problem is betting the horse as the favorite off just one fast win (and the fast win was a perfect trip 1 1/16 over the inner-tube). I certainly wouldn\'t downgrade the horse\'s chances off the courageous win, but I might downgrade his value.
 
> Firmturf,
>
> I thought of the same comment from JB about
> \"things always seem to happen to horses sitting on
> a \"bounce line\"\", like a stumbling start, But the
> horse recovered and won the race easily once he
> got room.  IWR\'s sheet will make for a good
> discussion point going into the derby for the
> \"purists\" versus the \"intangibles handicappers\".
> He will have bounced 3 points or so yesterday, and
> could be sitting on a big \"x\" and thus many will
> throw him out.  But those that \"adjust\" numbers in
> their minds and look at intangibles, will say it
> was not a bounce and he showed that he is one
> helluva race horse in that he can win when things
> don\'t go his way.  Disregard IWR at your own risk.
>  Now, after the fact, we can say he beat a
> horrible field, but many had Imperial Council in
> their top 10 or so derby horses, and is not even
> in the same league as IWR.

[covelj70]

I don\'t believe whipping a horse makes them run alot faster but it does have some impact and it\'s worth noting that Talamo never even took the whip out on IWR.  We can debate alot about the race, etc and I do believe that quirky things happen to horses that have just put in huge efforts but the fact that he did that without ever even being shown the stick was quite impressive.

It\'s hard for me to differentiate between Quality Road and I Want Revenge on the top of the Derby list as both have run huge figures and then bounced off of them as expected in the next race but what Quality Road did yesterday gives me some pause to just say, \"he\'s headed in the wrong direction\" like I would otherwise be inclined to do.

I think that Win Willy and Old Fashioned represent the value in the Derby Futures Pool 3.  Both ran big figures in their last.  Old Fashioned reminds me alot of Bluegrass from a few years ago.  Once favored then forgotten b/c of a loss only to come back and ruin alot of tickets on Derby Day.

[BitPlayer]

I\'d guess the bounce is more than 3 points.  Ignoring the ground IWR lost at the start (I estimate 3 lengths), West Side Bernie and Just a Coincidence have to get about the same figure as I Want Revenge.  Hard for me to believe that they both went forward to the \"0\" range and that Atomic Rain also went forward 3 points.  On the flip side, the 3yos did go more than a second faster than the older stakes horses (carrying less weight) went in the Excelsior just a half hour earlier (although the crawling pace of the Excelsior may have affected the final time).

Getting IWR an education in eating dirt may have been part of the game plan yesterday.  Talamo certainly didn\'t panic when the horse got left, and opted to move up between horses rather than working his way to the outside on the backstretch.  The education he got yesterday coupled with ability he showed in the Gotham and down the stretch yesterday (last 1/8th in around 12 seconds) certainly makes him dangerous at Churchill (although I wouldn\'t take 9/2).

I think one of the underrated reasons for 3yos moving up when they shift from synthetic to dirt on the Derby trail is that nature of racing on synthetic forces them to learn as 2yos to relax during a race and sprint home when asked, rather than adopt the go-hard-early style that tends to be favored on dirt.  Those early lessons served IWR well yesterday.

[Silver Charm]

If he was only looking for a win and Graded Earnings he would have gone to the ILL Derby

That money was just as green.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I agree that taking a short price on I Want Revenge off one fast figure on the inner dirt track is not appealing.  But who do you want to make the favorite?  There aren\'t too many choices.  To me, there is a very short list of horses that could go off favored in the Derby.  That list includes I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk.  I really don\'t care what Old Fashioned does in the Arkansas Derby, he isn\'t going to be favored on DErby day.  He has shown too little in the last two races to be favored in the Derby.  (not saying he can\'t win the Derby, just that he will have too many detractors who think he is \"distance challenged\".  Friesan Fire would have been a candidate to be favored, but not off the 7 weeks  rest.  Sheet players may like the 7 weeks off, but the general betting publice won\'t.  Pioneer of the Nile is not going to be favored off of having never run on dirt.  

My guess is that the favorite this year is about 5-1.  I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk (if he get in) will vie for favoritism.  Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile and Old Fashioned (if he wins next week) will be high single digit odds.  Double digits on the rest.  

I am sitting chilly with 55-1 on IWR and 14-1 on Quality Road, but I will have savers on Dunkirk beating either one, as I believe if he gets in, he will be very tough to handle.

Michael,

Not sure that GG gets off Pioneer of the Nile to ride Dunkirk.  My bet would be Baffert demnds the \"commitment\" now, and doesn\'t allow GG to hedge and wait to see if Dunkirk gets in.  In that scenario, GG would take the secure mount on a top 5 contender, rather than wait to see if Dunkirk gets in (just a guess)

Jim