Anybody wanna do some homework?

[TGJB]

Frontrunners in the Derby, last 40 years. Percentage of winners and ITM compared to percentage of starters, ROI.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Frontrunners in the Derby, last 40 years.
> Percentage of winners and ITM compared to
> percentage of starters, ROI.


Smarty, WE, Go For Gin, and the filly cover all the losers, so the win ROI has to be pretty good.

Speaking of front-runners, Join In The Dance is right on the bubble, and Pletcher wants to run (obviously). This guy\'s fate and the RR decision are HUGE factors in this year\'s race. Pace has had a rather large impact on 3 of the last 8 runnings (WE, Giac, and Monarchos)

Did Smarty wire them?

[TGJB]

Also Spend a Buck, Bold Forbes and Riva Ridge, but I\'m looking for someone to do the work so I don\'t have to farm it out to Alan along with the TG data studies, and listen to him bitch.

Winning Colors still hurts-- big bet on Forty Niner, one of the few wide Pat Day rides. Not as bad a beat as Mane Minister, but bad enough.

[MonmouthGuy]

Smarty sat off Lion Heart until the top of the stretch and then went by him at the quarter pole.

[beazley]

New poster.  I\'ve done some and you guys can point out the holes in the analysis.  I went back to 1983 and analyzed the winners position at the first call.  I then grouped the horses into F (front runner), M (middle runner), B (back runner).  To classify a horse one way or another I simply divided their position by the number of starters that year.  After playing with it some to feel comfortable where horses were falling I put front 24% as F, middle 43% as M and back 33% as B.

There are 112 F runners accounting for 11 winners.  This has an IV of 1.711
There are 196 M runners accounting for 6 winners.  This has an IV of 0.533
There are 145 B runners accounting for 9 winners.  This has an IV of 1.081

Sort of confirmed my position that being in the middle is the worst place to be in a big field.  You can get a tough trip.

I can play with this spreadsheet and change the definitions of F, M and B so if you want me to give you the IV with a different distribution let me know.

[JR]

How do you account for front runners who lay off cheap speed? Not sure what the purpose of the question is?

[Leamas57]

That\'s some nice work. It seems to me that the data with the most relevance would begin when the fields grew to make traffic/trip more a factor and then perhaps again when they were expanded to 20. Maybe you used \'83 for that reason. Can\'t remember when or how it changed.

[beazley]

When I further reduced the sample size to fields requiring an auxiliary gate since 1983 (throw out years 1985, 1994 and 1997) the F IV dropped to 1.569 from 1.711 but still very favorable.  The B improved to 1.224 from 1.081 so they get stronger.  Little to no change with the M horses.

I think this has everything to do with working out a good trip.

[imallin]

Midpack stalkers have a tough time in here because they are chasing what usually is a fast pace, they have to chase the frontrunners and then hold off the closers. Deep closers like Giacomo, Street Sense and FuPeg come to mind who won from WAY back.

[TGJB]

This is interesting but doesn\'t address the specific question. I\'m interested in frontrunners and maybe those second at first call-- they get an entirely different trip than horses sitting fifth or sixth.

Ground loss, ground loss, ground loss. Especially in 15-20 horse fields. Borel/Street Sense rides are few and far between. Cordero on Cannonade, arguably best Derby ride ever, comes to mind, but few others.

And no, I don\'t want to see a string begin about great Derby rides that have nothing to do with saving ground.

[beazley]

TGJB,

Over last 26 years, 3 runners that were ahead at first call won.  Thats an IV of 2.01.  The ROI is +19% or a $2.38 average payout.  The 3 runners were Spend a Buck, Winning Colors and War Emblem.  War Emblem is carrying the collective group.  The ITM% is 23%

Over the last 26 years, 2 horses running in 2nd at first call won.  Thats an IV of 1.34.  The ROI is -48% or a $1.05 average payout.  The 2 runners were Sunny\'s Halo and Go For Gin.  The ITM% is 27%

Combining these you have 5 total winners for IV of 1.68.  The ROI is -14% or $1.72 average payout.  The ITM% is 25%

[big18741]

Saving ground:

2008 TOE 1w3w  Coa from the 2-easy enough
     DOC 1w 1w Borel from the 16 hole

2007 Wildand crazy  1w first turn from the 5 hole beating faster wide wide horses Circular Quay and AGS.

2006 Bluegrass Cat 1w on the first turn from the 13 hole-Dominguez turned left out of the gate and went to the rail without a scrape-an amazing feat.Jazil 1w1w clunked up into a dead heat for 4th with the much faster 5w7w Bro Derek.

2004 Imperialism from the 10 hole 1w on the first turn ran 3rd.
    Limehouse a complete bomb sucked around on the inside the whole way for 4th.

[TGJB]

So one of the first two is in the money 50% of the time? Rest of the field around 25-30%?

SJ must not have been 1-2 at the first call.

Still looking to get the data back 40 years-- at this sample size one winner makes too big a difference, ITM is a better guide (which is why we include it in trainer profiles). Think Riva Ridge and Bold Forbes are the only other two wire to wire winners going back that far.

[Uncle Buck]

Don\'t forget Grindstone who nipped Cavonier. He was dead last on the far turn.

[MonmouthGuy]

I\'m not sure that I believe that 50% of horses that have been 1-2 at first call have hit the board.