Sorry MTB fans, his win was bad for racing

[toppled]

When I got into work today the Kentucky Derby talk by the non-horse-players was that this proves that horse racing is totally random, similar to a slot machine or a lottery.  One of my co-workers cited the poor win percentage of the guys in the newspaper as proof that there is no rhyme or reason to horse racing results.  I feel if this reaction by the people I work with is representative of the general public, this race has done more harm to racing.  
The reason I do not gamble on anything other than racing is because I feel racing is somewhat predictable.  If I thought of it in terms of slots or lotteries, I wouldn\'t get involved, nor would I spend money to get data on it.  Results that defy most logic in races that are as high profile as the Kentucky Derby, reinforce the man on the street\'s conception that horse racing is just another form of random type gambling. If enough casual gamblers come to that conclusion, then they will just head to the casinos to play slots. We\'ve already seen this since the rise of casinos at tracks & other venues.  This race made it more difficult to defend the predictability of racing to the average Joe.

[Michael D.]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When I got into work today the Kentucky Derby talk
> by the non-horse-players was that this proves that
> horse racing is totally random, similar to a slot
> machine or a lottery.  One of my co-workers cited
> the poor win percentage of the guys in the
> newspaper as proof that there is no rhyme or
> reason to horse racing results.  I feel if this
> reaction by the people I work with is
> representative of the general public, this race
> has done more harm to racing.  
> The reason I do not gamble on anything other than
> racing is because I feel racing is somewhat
> predictable.  If I thought of it in terms of slots
> or lotteries, I wouldn\'t get involved, nor would I
> spend money to get data on it.  Results that defy
> most logic in races that are as high profile as
> the Kentucky Derby, reinforce the man on the
> street\'s conception that horse racing is just
> another form of random type gambling. If enough
> casual gamblers come to that conclusion, then they
> will just head to the casinos to play slots. We\'ve
> already seen this since the rise of casinos at
> tracks & other venues.  This race made it more
> difficult to defend the predictability of racing
> to the average Joe.


The race is getting a lot of nation-wide press. I hear Rome spent half the day on the race, and the other programs gave it more coverage than past runnings. Durkin\'s shock and bewilderment (mess-up if you will) is only adding to the mystique of this little $102 colt. Sure, not  a great outcome for serious players, but for the public at large, this is a good story.

[Silver Charm]

I\'m not sure what is the bigger mystery.

This horse winning or him paying only $102.

[slewzapper]

FWIW, the number 8 is considered good fortune in Asian cultures.

He\'s also the Canadian two-year-old champ....post 8 has had the most Derby winners I believe....Birdstone won the Travers in the slop....Borel...

It obviously wasn\'t based upon speed figure handicapping. That group was diluted in the betting pool.

[Silver Charm]

Keep going.

You now have him down to less than 150-1.

[JR]

Totally random is better than totally fixed which is the usual charge. Besides, the totally \"random\" gaming industry is eating our lunch. Maybe that\'s the way we should promote the sport?

[slewzapper]

Sounds like you\'re having a real issue with this. What are you implying?

[NoCarolinaTony]

It was brought to my attention on another site that all you needed to do was box the three horses with the best winning record (most wins) and you would have hit the triple for $40K+...........that\'s too easy eh?

NCT

[Silver Charm]

You are too funny.

Slow horse in 20 horse field runs the race of his life wins. Great Story and not a fairy tales because it happened.

A 200-1 shot seems random and an even more \"eye-catching story\" But 50-1 seems like on paper at least there something to like and there really wasn\'t. Except for the story.

So next year instead of reviewing morning works let\'s tell bedtime stories and then decide who we should bet.

[Boscar Obarra]

50-1 has been explained, thats the way the public bets.  

 Beyer reported Betfair odds of 113-1 and I thing 200-1 at some point.

 Means nothing, cept you get robbed if you actually liked the horse.

 Win pool that is, the exotics were probable fair.

[Uncle Buck]

That\'s exactly right Tony. MTB (4 career wins), POTN (5 career wins) and Musket Man (5 lifetime wins from 6 starts) all hit the trifecta. The only other 4 win horses in the field were the betting fave FF, Choc Candy and Desert Party.

When Beyers were first coming out I was at the look-and-lose parlor one day saying how cool these new speed figures were in the form. Some cranky old timer leans over and barks \"Son - that crap don\'t matter. Does the horse like to win or not?\"

[imallin]

I actually think that one race isn\'t going to change the perception of anyone. If you believe race handicapping is skill, this isn\'t going to change your mind. If you believe racing is random and luck, you aren\'t going to be swayed from that closed mindset either.

I saw a woman the other day who caught some exacta on a simulcast race and she got in the face of almost everyone within earshot. EVERYONE knew she won after the race. She said to another bettor \"i gave you that exacta, you should have listened to me\". Then, she want on to parade around like a peacock with her feathers in the air. There was nothing at all to suggest she didn\'t think she was a full fledged racing expert. I enjoyed her \'show\' because i know that its people like her that keeps my pockets full.

[jmetro]

Wonder what the Betfair odds were on Flying Private or Nowhere to Hide who both went off lower than Mine That Bird, and both who had no business in the Derby either, at least on paper?

Fact of the matter is that there is ton of casual money bet on the Derby, favorite numbers, favorite jockeys, favorite colors, you name it.  I heard one guy say he bet the 8 because of the late Mark \"The Bird\" Fidrytch.

[P-Dub]

Silver,

You are really a piece of work. Your sarcasm and all knowing attitude really wears thin. Because you say something, it must be the all knowing truth. Are you a cousin of a certain Clown??  

Slew makes some good points,  such as:

- 2 YO Canadian Champ
- good post position
- Sire won a TC race in the slop
- Derby winning rider who also has great experience over the track.  Not to mention he won the Oaks the day before,  which probably prompted some to bet him.

There are millions bet on the Derby. This may surprise you, so you may want to sit down.

Not everybody uses Thorograph figures. Rags either.

Lets take a look at his PPs, since most people use the DRF or similar to handicap races.

- Wins 3 races in a row after breaking his maiden, including a GR3 in his first route race.
- Runs in the BC Juvenile, albeit up the track.
- Returns 4 months later and loses by a neck in a 100K race.
- 1 month later has a wide trip in a 900K race, finishes 4th beaten 3 lengths in a 12 horse field.

While this horses PPs don\'t scream BET ME!!, it also doesn\'t say hopeless loser.  This horse is usually an off the pace type runner. 2 races back, he suddenly shows speed and runs an excellent race ( the 100K race). His next race,  he resumes his stalking/closing style and had the wide trip.  I know several handicappers that love a change in running style,  especially closers that all of a sudden show speed. They view this as a positive development in a horse\'s form cycle.  Yes, the fractions were softer.  But that doesn\'t matter, many horses will take their usual place in the pack.  This horse didn\'t.

I didn\'t play him. I know some that did. Their information had MTB with excellent closing numbers, so they used him. They also liked the change in running style from 2 races back.

Just because the all knowing Silver Charm proclaims that there was \"nothing on paper\" means it must be true??

Instead of acting smug and arrogant....again....perhaps you should acknowledge that there are many different ways to handicap a race.

Congrats to those that had the winner.

[Silver Charm]

Well I will give you this, he certainly provided a lot more value than Fraudulant Fire

And he also verifys my longstanding argument that if a trainer has a horse who can get in then run him. Don\'t let the media make that decision for you because.....

You never know......