Preakness Odds

[jimbo66]

Some futures being put up by one of the sportsbooks I play at.  (although after IWR and QR being scratched before the Derby, this gambler has sworn off future bets on horses.....)

Rachel Alexander 1-1
Mine that Bird 9-2
POTN 5-1
Musket Man 6-1
Papa Clem 8-1
General Quarters 9-1
Friesan Fire 13-2
Hull 14-1
Big Drama 16-1

Interesting prices on both Hull and Big Drama IMO, although I have not seen the figures TGJB gave either horse in their last race.   Both come in rested and realtively fast (against anything other than RAchel and her negative 4)

[covelj70]

IMO, anyone who likes RA should take that 1-1 if it is being offered b/c every horseplayer I talk to thinks she\'s a lock so I think she\'s going to go off at 3-5.

That\'s not my cup of tea so that\'s a pass for me but I have been really surprised that I haven\'t heard one \"a filly isn\'t going to beat the boys\" comment in the last 5 days from my regular circle.

I wish I thought someone could beat her but she seems to me to lay over this field as much as BB laid over last year\'s field.

[spa]

I\'ll not play her. This race will be as rough as it gets and the new owners are going to get what they deserve.

[firmturf]

The Preakness ends a pick 4 that paid 1200+ last year with Big Brown.

[jimbo66]

Ok Covelj,

You said you aren\'t hearing it much, so I will oblige you.  At somewhere in the neighborhood of even money in a 13 horse field, the filly comes off a 4 point top and runs on two weeks rest.  Under \"normal\" circumstances, these are the betting opportunities that most of us on this board live for.  

The 4 point forward move and two weeks rest is reason enough to bet against her, but there is another factor to consider.  I hate to use the word \"pace\" so let\'s just say that the trip she projects to get in the Preakness will not be as good as the one she got in the Oaks.  She won\'t sit second off of a weak horse and then get to demolish a weak field.  She will have to put away seasoned horses with quality speed on the front end, like Big Drama and Friesan Fire, then hold off the quality stalkers and closers.  I would put fair odds on her at around 3-1 and I think she goes off nowhere near that.  

Just to clarify something so I don\'t sound like a complete hypocrite, I am not contradicting the previous posts I have made where Miff and I both think TGJB is wrong about big efforts knocking most young 3 year olds out.  I am saying that on two weeks at short odds, I am betting against those types of horses, I am not saying that Quality Road, off 5 weeks rest going into the derby, would have been a bad bet.  And I am certainly not saying he got the quarter crack because of the fast effort.  

If the filly wins, god bless, she is awesome.  But she won\'t have my money on her.

[shanahan]

Jimbo, you pegged it.  2 weeks rest - and a filly at that - is a definite bet against in the TC campaign.  Not often will we get this opportunity.  Should she get in - and win - my hats off to her as a \"great equine\".  If not, we will have cashed in as bettors on a unique opportunity.

[jack72906]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ok Covelj,
>
> You said you aren\'t hearing it much, so I will
> oblige you.  At somewhere in the neighborhood of
> even money in a 13 horse field, the filly comes
> off a 4 point top and runs on two weeks rest.
> Under \"normal\" circumstances, these are the
> betting opportunities that most of us on this
> board live for.  
>
> The 4 point forward move and two weeks rest is
> reason enough to bet against her, but there is
> another factor to consider.  I hate to use the
> word \"pace\" so let\'s just say that the trip she
> projects to get in the Preakness will not be as
> good as the one she got in the Oaks.  She won\'t
> sit second off of a weak horse and then get to
> demolish a weak field.  She will have to put away
> seasoned horses with quality speed on the front
> end, like Big Drama and Friesan Fire, then hold
> off the quality stalkers and closers.  I would put
> fair odds on her at around 3-1 and I think she
> goes off nowhere near that.  
>
> Just to clarify something so I don\'t sound like a
> complete hypocrite, I am not contradicting the
> previous posts I have made where Miff and I both
> think TGJB is wrong about big efforts knocking
> most young 3 year olds out.  I am saying that on
> two weeks at short odds, I am betting against
> those types of horses, I am not saying that
> Quality Road, off 5 weeks rest going into the
> derby, would have been a bad bet.  And I am
> certainly not saying he got the quarter crack
> because of the fast effort.  
>
> If the filly wins, god bless, she is awesome.  But
> she won\'t have my money on her.


I agree with you Jimbo on the 4 point top/2 Weeks back \"opportunity\". We also know that a filly is more susceptible to a bounce than her male counterparts, but RA looked like she was going through a breezing workout on Oaks Day, so I\'m not sure she even ran. Is there anything to bounce off of? There was no effort on May 1.

[MonmouthGuy]

I disagree.

I thought that Randy Moss summed it up perfectly in his recent column on ESPN.com:

 
\"Bringing her back against colts two weeks after such an epic performance in the Oaks would be needlessly risking her future. She needs time to recover, and there is no justification for impatiently rushing her back....Her Oaks was stressful. It may have appeared she was giving minimum effort, but nothing could be further from the truth....In her final pre-Oaks workout, she kept motoring so hard while \"galloping out\" that clockers looked at their watches in disbelief. In her gallop the morning before the race, her exercise rider struggled to keep her from breaking into a full-speed run and had to wrestle with her to finally bring her to a stop. She puts her heart into everything she does, and those who believe she wins her races effortlessly are missing the point...\"

more

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/columns/story?columnist=moss_randy&id=4149555

[David G Patent]

Don\'t believe the numbers.  Believe your eyes.  Believe Arazi demolishing the BC Juvenile field with no effort at all.  Believe Big Brown\'s \'easy\' Preakness win (confession -- I did).  Believe IWR\'s \'easy\' non-effort Wood off of his big top that took nothing out of the horse.  And Believe that a 3 y.o. filly runs a big negative number without even putting forth an effort.

[miff]

If she gets beat, it is possible that the dynamics of the race may do it, not necessarily the short rest or the 4 point top.It is worth noting that both Beyer and Rags have her last in the TG neg-2 3/4 area, a meaningful difference from the TG neg -4.Either way seems plausible.

Cov has pointed out that even seemingly effortless big negative figs still take their toll.Sometimes that is true and even though RA appears to be energetic and thriving,the \"silent\" bounce is still possible.On ability, she lays over this ordinary bunch,gets a few pounds and is an imposing physical specimen. I doubt she\'ll get \"pushed\" around.There is also a positive trainer change to a prolific winning guy who knows big time horses. It is doubtful that he will do anything to change this filly\'s regimen in the two weeks leading up to the race.

The final make up of the field and the draw will be important,imo, especially if RA draws inside and is hooked early by some of that colt gas(something very new for her).The best of this group are the tactical ones, the closers all slugs, MTB somewhat mysterious to me, still leaning that he\'s a slow rat off that iron rail and wet track.

Mike

[marcus]

imo - She\'s definately a very special filly but 3-1  is too short a price against the prospects of a bounce now on two weeks rest  , the  last one was not only a 4 pt top but also  represents 7 points of development past her best two year number as well  .

recent oddschecker.com UK Bookmaker odds ;

Rachel Alexandra (1) ,
Mine That Bird (9/2) ,
Pioneerof The Nile (6) ,
Musket Man ( ,
Papa Clem ( ,
General Quarters (10) ,
Conservative (16) ,
Hull (20) ,
Big Drama (25) ,
Flying Private (25) ,
Take The Points (25) ,
Terrain (33) ,
Tone It Down (66)

[big18741]

The pace might only be hot if Hull stays in the race.He\'s quick early if nothing else.Sounds like the connections are on the fence now with RA in the mix.Barry?

Big Drama won both times routing(not on the engine)but he got his last 5/16ths in 33\'s.Is another furlong gonna help that horse?

Terrain(25-1 ML?)looks like the slow horse in here that could pop a new top on dirt third race back.Curious to see if he inched forward in the Bluegrass.Real pace would help that horse IMO.

If you toss the failed experiment blinkers on Delta race-he\'s a one run closer.Pace has been slow in both outs this year and Theriot found trouble three times routing last year.

Hoping Stall tosses Theriot and doesn\'t pick up Albarado.Dominguez or Rose would be fine and an inside draw wouldn\'t hurt.Thinking he can find his way onto the ticket at a price.

[TGJB]

Miff-- there is absolutely no way Rachel ran any worse than I gave her, the only question was whether she ran better. That\'s 100% definitely not worse.

She gets 5 pounds here, I believe.

[miff]

JB,

Those blow out wet track figs are often not representative of reality for some reason which I given up on trying to figure out. You have seen, I\'m sure, fairly common horses throw gigantic wet track figs that they never repeat.

RA is a legit beast but did run a substantial top on a wet surface.I need to see her run that fig (neg-4) on a dry surface to believe it.I don\'t think she can.

I have no doubt that Hopkins/Friedman will stand behind their figs 100% also.


Mike

[TGJB]

I\'m offering no opinion on what she will do in the future, wet track or no. But if there is ever a sure thing in making figures, it is that she ran at least what I gave her.

Curious if Beyer uses the same beaten lengths relationships that we do. At 20 lengths a difference could be magnified, and might account for why he got it slow. In Ragozin\'s case, he simply won\'t give out big figures on off tracks. He got stuck with the Derby winner because there is just so bad you can have the others running.