Rachel vs Zenyatta-Did we learn anything today?

[jimbo66]

It is because I am giving up on handicapping, in favor of becoming a critic.....

My handicapping the last 6 weeks or so is putting quite a challenge to the statement that \"even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.......\"

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
I generally prefer not to agree with you (lol), but, this is a tough one for me to defend.  
Admittedly, I\'m a big fan of John, Mike Smith and Zenyatta.  (Is there any other apologist in the house I can rely on before I try to spin it?)

Is it possible Shireffs thinks that Zenyatta running the table for 3 or 4 more races and then winning the BC Distaff with an undefeated record of 15-0 should be good enough for HOY?  Prior to artificial, that type of record CERTAINLY would have qualified any animal on the face of the earth. Right?

Is it possible Rachel is such a national darling that going east and beating her still wouldn\'t be enough for Z to win HOY honors?  With all the love being spread to Rachel and all the skepticism surrounding Zenyatta because of her synthetic wins, I think that scenario is possible.  I think Rachel beating Zenyatta seals HOY honors (deservedly so), but Zenyatta beating Rachel would have to overcome all the probable excuses the loving fans would stir up for her.  Curlin had plenty of people step up in his defense when he was drilled on the turf and then drilled in the BC Classic, right?  It\'s plausible.    

Do you REALLY think John Shireffs is calling the shots on this horse?  Of course not.. If Mr. Moss tells him to get Zenyatta ready to run at Belmont, or Monmouth or Saratoga, or wherever, then that\'s what\'ll happen, regardless if John endorses it or not. Placing the blame on John is pretty bogus if you really think about it.

Do I think Mike Smith would love to run Zenyatta against Rachel?  I guarantee you he would.  

At the end of the day, it\'s likely they will meet this year, somewhere. Why?  Because if Rachel runs the table, Haskell, Travers, etc, they will not be satisfied with that \"unknown\" hanging out there.  Rachel runs the table, the fan base is enormous, she goes to the BC Distaff and loses in great fashion, she still wins HOY and gets the added excuse of losing to a great plastic champion.  Perfect excuse to run, right?  The voters won\'t hold it against her, they certainly didn\'t disqualify Curlin because he got beat by several in the Classic on Pro Ride.  
But, what if she WINS on plastic?  Then she is named as one of the all time greats and not one single person could ever dispute it.  Seems simple to me.

[TGJB]

Rachel is not going to the BC, period. And if she beats colts again she will be horse of the year no matter how many races Zenyata wins, unless that one beats colts in the Classic.

And she should be. Championships are based on accomplishment. No matter how good Zenyatta is (or you think she is), no matter that she won on dirt LAST year, if all she does this year is beat up on tomato cans except for one race in the BC over a surface most either don\'t like or aren\'t familiar with, she should not get a single vote. And she won\'t get many.

Again, nothing to do with ability.

Completely different subject-- let\'s see Zenyatta come east and spot 10 pounds to the fillies around here. She\'s a very good filly. and she\'s doing it in the cleanest racing state in the country, which is a big mark in her favor (and may have something to do with why they won\'t ship). But her race record is seriously misleading due to the competition and surface. It\'s not that she can\'t handle dirt-- she can-- it\'s that many others can\'t handle synth, and the level of almost all divisions in California is pretty weak.

[smalltimer]

TGJB,

As always, good points.

Last year, lots of guys were saying that Zenyatta would or should run in the Classic against the males.  I said no way.  This year, different story.  I think it\'s likely she runs against the males in the Classic with the obvious advantage of liking the surface and not giving up weight.  Carrying 121# going a mile and a quarter is likely within her range, but you never know till they try it.


JB, you are exactly on point with the drug issue surrounding her shipping to some sites.  I wouldn\'t be worried about Z spotting fillies some weight, but the probability of a drug disadvantage is asking for trouble.

At this point Zenyatta has only beaten Ginger Punch on the dirt and the synthetic, she\'s beaten Hystericalady and Cocoa Beach and anyone else she\'s come across.  No question she has beaten and will continue to beat some tomato cans.

Now, except for the tired group of average 3 year olds she beat at Pimlico, exactly WHO has Rachel beaten?  She\'s proven herself to be a great 3 year old, but she has as many tomato cans as victims as does Zenyatta.  Her career hasn\'t exactly been a murderer\'s row of 3 year old fillies, in fact, most of them would be either Ragu or Prego.
 
I still think Rachel is subject to a real poor performance.  I also said earlier that I expect Zenyatta to be sub par in her next out.  Luckily, they\'re both so talented it might not make much difference.

Rachel winning the Travers or Haskell would be monumental and worthy of HOY honors, but, she hasn\'t won those races yet.  Maybe we could wait till she wins them before we hand her the crown?  She\'s a great 3 year old filly, but, just like Zenyatta, she too can be beaten.  

Shirreffs always gives her 7 weeks then 4 weeks between outs.  Zenyatta has had 6 different surface changes,, Hol/SA/OP/Hol/Dmr/OSA/Hol and with one exception she will always get a minimum of 3 works over the surface before she runs.  I\'ll make a prediction:  IF Zenyatta came out of her last race well, she will run one more time in California and then we will see the Rachel-Zenyatta  matchup on dirt, probably somewhere in September.  With the exception of an injury to either of these great horses, I\'ll stand by this prediction.

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

Big Drama has run faster than Zenyatta and of course faster than any horse that Zenyatta has beaten.  Rachel sent that horse packing after 3/4 of a mile.

Mine that Bird was not a tired horse, as he showed in the strong Belmont effort.  He is another that has run faster than the group that Zenyatta beats on a regular basis.

And sorry, but style points count when you talk about greatness.  THey don\'t count when it comes to gambling and cashing tickets, but discussions about greatness are relative comparisons certainly bring style points into play.  Rachel has won her last 3, all graded stakes, by 40+ lengths.  The total combined margin of all Zenyatta\'s 11 or 12 victories is something like 28 lengths.

Beating the same slow horses by a length or two, isn\'t going to get the \"oohs and aahs\" that Rachel gets when she runs fast times, winning by 20, under a hammerlock from the rider.  

I hope your prediction about the horses matching up is right.  But it seems like a longshot based on how fast the owner of Zenyatta backed off his statement of a couple days ago about how he would like to ship and face Rachel.

[Wrongly]

I hope you right that Moss/Sherriffs will choose the BC classic and suck up money, offering even better value on the Euros.  I would take Fame and Glory or Sea the Stars hands down over the Z and heck they would both probably offer much better value.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Smalltimer,
>
> Big Drama has run faster than Zenyatta and of
> course faster than any horse that Zenyatta has
> beaten.  Rachel sent that horse packing after 3/4
> of a mile.
>
> Mine that Bird was not a tired horse, as he showed
> in the strong Belmont effort.  He is another that
> has run faster than the group that Zenyatta beats
> on a regular basis.
>
> And sorry, but style points count when you talk
> about greatness.  THey don\'t count when it comes
> to gambling and cashing tickets, but discussions
> about greatness are relative comparisons certainly
> bring style points into play.  Rachel has won her
> last 3, all graded stakes, by 40+ lengths.  The
> total combined margin of all Zenyatta\'s 11 or 12
> victories is something like 28 lengths.
>
> Beating the same slow horses by a length or two,
> isn\'t going to get the \"oohs and aahs\" that Rachel
> gets when she runs fast times, winning by 20,
> under a hammerlock from the rider.  
>
> I hope your prediction about the horses matching
> up is right.  But it seems like a longshot based
> on how fast the owner of Zenyatta backed off his
> statement of a couple days ago about how he would
> like to ship and face Rachel.

Jimbo,

You\'ve made a lot of good points on this subject, but some of your points here are silly.

You want to take Big Drama as an example? Because RA sent that horse \"packing\"?? BD had problems all day, pre race, post parade, and the start. A poor example.

Also, we are finding horses with a big number and then taking that horse to compare to others?? BD has run 1 number that is faster than Z and her opponents, so of course that means everything. Geez. Also, if it stands to reason that turf numbers are slower than dirt figs wouldn\'t the same apply to synth figs?? So we\'re comparing synth and dirt figs equally??

MTB, a better example.

Then you want to talk about \"style points\"??  Because RA drills an overmatched FOUR horse field??

Other than the Preakness,  who exactly has RA beaten??  When you are on the lead and running against overmatched rivals, they will back up and the margin will be greater.  When you have a horse with a closing style, rarely will you see huge margins of victory.

This subject has been beaten to death. We know how you feel. Hopefully they will meet up and end this debate.

[TGJB]

Small-- look, seriously--

Rachel won the premiere American race for 3yo fillies by 20 (TWENTY) lengths. She won a Triple Crown race, not just a race for colts, beating the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derby winners. As far as diffrent tracks, she\'s run at Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont just this year. As far as I know those are in 6 different states.

Zenyatta\'s wins against top mares were LAST year. Even if I gave her as much credit for them as you (I do for the Oaklawn one), they have nothing to do with helping her towards HOTY THIS year. She has done nothing noteworthy or extraordinary so far this year, and won\'t if she keeps running against fillies in California. She\'s run only at tracks you can get to for $40 by cab. I can get to three different airports for that.

The handicapping questions of what they both do going forward are entirely separate. Rachel is much more likely to give way because she has run much faster, especially relative to her age, more often, closer together, and on a less forgiving surface.

Beyond that,let\'s try to remember where we are. This is not a general racing site or talk radio, where all opinions are created equal. We KNOW how fast Zenyatta ran in last year\'s BC,and how fast Raven\'s Pass ran. Z ran a point faster, at weight for age she would have won by about a length with equal trips. We also know there is no such thing as a weight a horse can\'t win under, that absolute weights don\'t matter-- it\'s a function of who you run against, how you and they run that day, and the RELATIVE weights. That\'s what we do here-- measure performance, for professional and serious handicappers.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
Good points.

Big Drama is a predominant front runner, so comparing him to Zenyatta is moot.
In a route race, Zenyatta wouldn\'t be within 10+ lengths of Rachel at the 3/4 mark.

Mine That Bird is a really nice 3 year old, with Mike Smith aboard he seemed to be trying to get to Rachel in the Preakness.  Really, really nice gelding. Mike\'s been on some good ones, including Cigar, Skip Away, Holy Bull, Azeri, Cherokee Run as well as Zenyatta, so when Mike says she\'s a good one, I respect his opinion.    

Rachel wins by 20, then a length, then 20 again.  That\'s how you spin 40+ lengths in 3 graded races.

I think Zenyatta\'s winning margin is about 25 lengths, so the \"oohs and aahs\" are withheld, or not warranted.  When a horse runs a mile and and eighth and each succeeding quarter is faster than the preceding one, I can go \"ooh\".  But, I understand your point on winning with style.  
 
I also hope my prediction comes to fruition.  Jimbo, doesn\'t it make sense that either Sherriffs or Moss would at least like to see how Zenyatta came out of that last race after packing 129#\'s?  I think the general rule is give a horse about a week to see if there is anything unusual, or at least an easy trip around the track in a workout to see if anything looks amiss.  Did Sherriffs/Moss see something from one day to the next that might have caused him to backtrack?  Maybe carrying that weight temporarily knocked her out.      

Maybe Sherriffs tuned Moss into some of the potential drug/detention barn issues that concern him and Moss had not been aware.  I\'m not making excuses for the quick reversal, I\'m just suggesting that the people on the inside know a lot more of what\'s going on than either you or I.

Hypothetical...Mike Smith has ridden Zenyatta the last 8 races, obviously knows her very well.  Mike rode Mine That Bird in the Preakness, and the horse ran a nice race.  Wouldn\'t you want to weigh Mike Smith\'s opinion if you were John Shirreffs or Mr. Moss?  I know I would.  

Jimbo, I\'m gonna read your response, then I think I\'m gonna ease out of this thread,  I\'m getting killed on \"oohs and aahs\", margins of victories, tomato cans, Big Drama comparison, etc.  Plus it looks like 80/20 Rachel, so I\'m fighting a losing battle in here. LOL

Jimbo, have a good one and GET BACK IN THE SADDLE AND START PICKING SOME RACES.

Peace out

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, Shirreffs apparently has swung Moss over to
> the ridiculous path he has mapped out for
> Zenyatta.
>
> At least Shirreffs is full of valid reasons for
> not shipping.
>
> 1.  All championships are supposed to be decided
> in the Breeders Cup.
> 2.  We \"would\' ship, if the Breeders Cup was not
> in California.
> 3.  There are \"tight turns\" at Saratoga.  (this
> one is new to me)
> 4.  The detention barns in New York are unfair to
> shippers.
>
>
> What do we hear next?
>
> 1.  He won\'t ship to Churchill because he doesn\'t
> like multiple alliteration withone the name of a
> track.
>
> 2.  He won\'t ship to New Jersey because he wasn\'t
> a fan of the Sopranos.
>
> 3.  Too much crime in Florida, so shipping there
> is too risky....
>
> What a shame.  I hope this guy never trains
> another quality horse.

Jimbo,

Dude, what has gotten into you?? You may not like the decisions the connections are making, but being dismissive of the reasons doesn\'t make you right.

Regarding the points:

1- This is absolutely correct. Isn\'t that what the BC was designed for? Yes, synthetic surfaces affect horses differently. But the BC is racing\'s Championship Day.

2- They shipped to Churchill earlier before scratching, so they will ship. I doubt they would do that just to fake you out.

3- Track configuration does make a difference. The only time Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence was on his home track that was tailored to his running style. To ignore this fact is disingenuous. Of course,  it didn\'t stop the Easy Goer apologists from making one excuse after another as to why he lost the other 3.

4- Absolutely correct. They have had bad experiences before with the detention barn. If Z gets placed in a detention barn, doesn\'t like it, and is thrown off her game, nobody will care. \"Champions\" should overcome that experience, right??

These are all valid points. Your sarcasm notwithstanding.

As for never training another quality horse, right. He obviously is poor at his craft.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

YOu may not like my sarcasm, which is understandable, since it is directed at a \"left coast\" horse and part of your role on the board is to be the resident \"left coast defendant\".  

But, without the sarcasm, my points are still valid.

For Shireffs to be saying in May that he wouldn\'t ship out of California because it doesn\'t make sense considering the Breeders Cup is at Santa Anita is just crappola.  It was May.  The BC is in October (or 1st Saturday in November).  That is just a garbage statement by Shirreffs.  As TGJB pointed out, Rachel has raced in six states already.  She has raced against colts and is now being considered to race in the Whitney to race against OLDER colts.  Shirreffs apparently thinks Zenyatta is so fragile that a July ship to New York or New Jersey will knock his horse out for an October California race.

Sincw when is Saratoga a \"bull ring\" like FAirplex with unmanagetable tight turns?  Since Shirreffs decided he wants to continue to beat the same slow horses on his home track.  

There are other tracks besides New York if the detention barns are really so bad.  Churchill would put the race on and the folks at Monmouth have shown the ability to step up and add money to get top horses to compete.  How about the Iselin in August?  

Obviously, Shirreffs will get more good horses.  He has a Derby winner and has an undefeated mare.  However, that doesn\'t disallow me to HOPE that he never gets another quality horse like this.  What he is doing is not good for the game of racing nor is good for Zenyatta\'s legacy.  If you polled the current horse racing fans/enthusiasts/historians, Smalltimer is probably right that it would be about 80/20 in favor of Rachel.  And since Shirreffs and Moss won\'t race on the track outside California, they are turning this into a poll/PR campaign instead of a horse race that many many people would love to see.

As for your Sunday Silence/Easy Goer comment, I agree with you.  I am not an East Coast biased guy. I loved Sunday Silence.  He was better.  More agile, quicker acceleration and could run on the turns.  The Easy Goer camp was full of excuses.

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

I will \"ease out\" of this thread as well.  I vented.  Tried to do it with facts, but the emotion comes from disappointment with the way Zenyatta is being handled.  80% of me is a gambler, but there is a 20% piece that is actually a fan of this game and that 20% would absolutely love to see Zenyatta and Rachel on a dirt track, at 1 1/8, with some other horses in the race, including a frontrunner or two (so as not to handicap Zenyatta by pace, for those that believe pace is part of the equation)

Solid racing this weekend. I am looking forward to the Suburban, as a couple of us on this board had the 40-1 winner last year on top.  And the 5-1 2nd place finisher \"cold\".  I might have even \"crowed\" on the board after that race last year Smalltimer...    But it also might have been the last time I cashed a ticket....

Jim

[P-Dub]

Jimbo,

I like you. You have very good opinions. And yeah, I\'m a left coast guy.

I wish they would ship and run too. Its frustrating. I don\'t like the excuses, but some are valid.

If they stay in California, don\'t ship out of state before the BC, and never face RA, then I will rethink my stance on this.

I\'m giving them the benefit of the doubt until its November, and the reality is that they never meet.

Good stuff. Appreciate your comments.

I agree with JB regarding HOY discussion with Smalltimer. Z has to do more, and that includes shipping and facing RA.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> Solid racing this weekend. I am looking forward to
> the Suburban, as a couple of us on this board had
> the 40-1 winner last year on top.  And the 5-1 2nd
> place finisher \"cold\".  I might have even \"crowed\"
> on the board after that race last year
> Smalltimer...    But it also might have been the
> last time I cashed a ticket....
>
> Jim

What a race that was. My non-TG buddies couldn\'t believe I had it.  Missed the tri by a nose. Tried to talk them on him for a good 10 minutes.

After all these years, they still never learn.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
I look forward to your analysis on the Suburban.  Although I\'m a novice, I\'ll try to chime in \"before the race\", as my redboarding tends to ruffle feathers.  LOL
If you crowed about that win, deservedly so.  
At some point your results will return to your normal standards, maybe this weekend is the start after your recent freshening.
Although we disagree, I appreciate your insights on the Rachel-Zenyatta saga.