Rachel vs. Zenyatta???

[Dana666]

I\'m sure everyone\'s aware of this story already. I hope it happens.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=4405961

1 1/8 at Belmont, one turn, seems pretty fair to me. A two turn race in my mind would have seriously favored Rachel w/her handiness and tactical speed, but this race seems like it will be fair. Probably won\'t settle the argument either way, but it\'ll be better than the Breeder\'s Cup!

[Deadrockstar]

It would settle the argument.

[P-Dub]

Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> It would settle the argument.


You mean like Sunday Silence beating Easy Goer 3 out of 4 times settled that one??

One race doesn\'t settle anything.

[miff]

Hi Paul,

I suspect you may be in the Z camp.I\'m not a \"fan\" so to speak and look at such a race for gambling purposes.

For any Z fan, please explain just how Z would defeat Rachel with all things equal and both at the top of their game.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> You mean like Sunday Silence beating Easy Goer 3
> out of 4 times settled that one??
>
> One race doesn\'t settle anything.

Well I guess this confirms there are Japanese on deserted islands in green fatigues carrying weapons who still believe the war isn\'t over...........

[TGJB]

P-Dub-- that\'s exactly right. One horse (or one team) beating another just means they beat them, doesn\'t mean they were better overall, or necessarily even better in that race, for that matter (as those of us who watched Cauthen be inside Velasquez on all 6 turns of the TC in 78 will attest).

Pirates beat the Yanks in the 60 WS in 7 games. Pirates won four one run games, Yanks ouscored them by 30 runs overall. From that, or even from looking at the two lineups, it would be hard to argue the Pirates were the better team.

The whole point of making figures is to be able to answer this type of question about horses.

[Dana666]

There was a Japanese soldier who held out on Guadalcanal until something like 1947 or 1948. The battle was over in late 1942. They only found him when he got caught raiding gardens of the local folks. He might have never left!

[Dana666]

I don\'t think it will settle the question, but it will be fun to watch!

How could Z win? Many ways.

A lot has to do with the pace in my mind. If Rachel gets too far in front with an easy pace, she\'ll be very tough to run down, but if the pace is fast and the track the typical, deepish Belmont surface, Z\'s huge strides will have her flying late and it will be closer than many of you think. Two turns would favor Rachel, one turn levels the playing field.

Remember, Rachel has never faced any kind of horse, male or female, in Z\'s league, and Z\'s only dirt race was a huge win as she was geared down in typical Rachel-like fashion leaving a champion 7 or so lengths back AND Z was playing at the end of that race wanting to do more with a last 1/16th in around 6 seconds. How many champions did Rachel beat?

You guys are basing all your negative views of Z on numbers that don\'t mean nearly as much as you think. When you\'re assigning a number for a polytrack stakes race that has been run like 2 or 3 times since the track was installed vs. a dirt number for a race run 50 times over 50 years, how can you tell me the polytrack number is right? It\'s just an (in Jerry\'s case) very educated guess. I can believe Rachel is as fast as you say, but you can\'t tell me Z isn\'t because you got a very small sample of races to judge her numbers by. And don\'t tell me you can make an accurate number without a par time.

[TGJB]

Dana-- first of all, serious figure makers don\'t use par times. And on figures, Rachel has faced at least four horses in Zenyatta\'s league.

The relevant issue you raise is whether Zenyatta is a better dirt horse, and yes, it is possible she would put in one of those synth to dirt explsions. And it is possible (more than just possible) that Rachel would not run her best race-- they have done a great job spacing her races, but the big efforts figure to eventually take their toll, unless she is a complete freak. (On that note-- if Asmussen holds this filly together for a full campaign after what he did with Curlin, he should go directly to the HOF).

But if Rachel runs her best race, at weight for age, you would be asking Zenyatta to run a neg 5 1/2 to break even, BEFORE any ground loss, which figures to benefit Rachel. That figure wouldn\'t just be better than any filly has ever run, it would put her close to Ghostzapper and Midnight Lute. This falls into the category of \"anything is posible...\"

[magicnight]

Not that this undermines your point ... we just do this so that people will assume that everything else you write is true.

The Pirates won a three-run game, a two-run game, and two one-run games, and were outscored cumulatively by 55-27. Not always to the fast or the strong, but it\'s still the way to bet, even with the occasional exception.

[TGJB]

Yeah, your buddy in California emailed me about that within 10 minutes. Some people shouldn\'t be allowed to have search engines.

[magicnight]

I just wanted to beat Richiebee, who not only remembers Sal Maglie, but also remembers buying a ticket to the Polo Grounds ... to see a polo match!

[miff]

\"You guys are basing all your negative views of Z on numbers that don\'t mean nearly as much as you think\"

Dana,

Not in my case.If Z had the same numbers,Rachel would still hold a huge tactical advantage. You are talking about a race shape that favors Z to bring them close.How about a race shape that would favor Rachel or even a neutral race shape.

Rachel makes races and runs fast, Z is unable to make a race and has not run that fast to date. The accomplishments of Z are huge, she just has not run as fast as Rachel,and the difference in figs do not quantify Rachel\'s superiority on the racetrack,imo. Lotta W\'s on Z\'s TG figs.

I\'m not a fan, just talking as a bettor.


Mike

[Dana666]

I can\'t argue with the huge tactical advantage. If Z is that great, she\'ll overcome it. Like Jerry said something to the effect of in an earlier post, you know Z is going to be wide so right there that\'s a huge edge for Rachel, not even counting her tactical speed.

[HP]

\"you know Z is going to be wide so right there that\'s a huge edge for Rachel\"

I have rarely seen a subject on this board discussed so thoroughly with less real insight.  Dana - if they hook up in a 10 horse field and Rachel is in the 10 hole and Z gets the rail, how do you know Z would be wide?  Isn\'t this ridiculous?

It\'s like listening to old people talk about how far they had to walk to school, or old hippies talking about how great the weed was back then.  Usually you have to wait until about a week before the race for the inane speculation.  This has been going on here for MONTHS!  

HP