Zenyatta Should Not Run In The Breeders Cup Classic

[Silver Charm]

There is more downside than up. Also there is precedent more on that later.

The owners and trainer, rightfully so, are fully flattered by and proud of her 13 for 13 record. She has proven time after time to be a great mare and needs to be rewarded with the bar at a level where she is able to showcase that once more. Wanting to keep that record perfect should be a priority not a residual goal.

She nor anyone else will win Horse of the Year. That contest is over. People had their chance to take a shot. Some did and lost and some did not. Zenyatta by going in the Classic has everything to lose and little to gain.

Personal Ensign went into the Breeders Cup with a 12 for 12 record and a chance to run in the Classic and beat Alysheba and Co and win Horse of the Year. Except nobody insisted that she had to. Why the double standard? The fact Personal Ensign had face and beaten colts once before should have made the case even stronger. But to my knowledge nobody seemed to be pushing for it like they seem to be with Zenyatta.

The connections need to go with what they know and run in the Distaff. And when she wins people need to stand up and cheer. Her place in racings Hall of Fame has long been on reserve.

Send in the hounds.........

[Silver Charm]

An additional point I failed to add.

How big is the precedent for Filly\'s running in the Classic and what is the track record of success? A Jolypha 3rd is about it.  

If a talking point is the Classic needs a star and she can provide that. Stars carry their aura wherever they go.

That void is not her problem............

[Niall]

This article from the SI Vault provides some insight into the mindset circa 1988. She beat the boys, why drink from that cup again it seems to say ... And PE did have to face a worthy foe in the Distaff ... no such beast stands in the way of Zenyatta ...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1067914/index.htm

[miff]

Silver,

The difference for Zenyatta vs Personal Ensign is plain and simple.Home court and average competition.With the possible exception of the Europeans,who does she have to fear.A golden opportunity to take a shot in the Classic against a common bunch,a no brainer.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

Actually there are others.

Personal Ensigns trainer had TWO colts in the Classic. One that had a BIG shot (ran second) and another who had a punchers chance (ran 4th?).

Also if Personal Ensign ran in the Distaff and won and there was an upset in the Classic she would have won Horse of the Year.

Zenyatta is probably 10-1 or 12-1 to win the Classic and will go off at about a third of that. Maybe less. She is odds on in the Distaff even though both Spinster runners could be problematic.

There is no breeding enhancement. The Classic is a terrible spot home track or not.

[miff]

Not really interested in comparing PE vs Z.As far as this BC is concerned, Z is in the perfect spot which you determine by how well she is doing and the weak competition.

Mike

[Lost Cause]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually there are others.
>
> Personal Ensigns trainer had TWO colts in the
> Classic. One that had a BIG shot (ran second) and
> another who had a punchers chance (ran 4th?).
>
> Also if Personal Ensign ran in the Distaff and won
> and there was an upset in the Classic she would
> have won Horse of the Year.
>
> Zenyatta is probably 10-1 or 12-1 to win the
> Classic and will go off at about a third of that.
> Maybe less. She is odds on in the Distaff even
> though both Spinster runners could be problematic.
>
>
> There is no breeding enhancement. The Classic is a
> terrible spot home track or not.


How about just for the $3M purse difference?

[Silver Charm]

60% of $5.0M = $3.0M
60% of $2.0M = $1.2M

Difference = $1.8M

Probability of winning one event with a bigger purse-10%
Probability of winning one event with a smaller purse-70%

What do they say?

A bird in the hand is worth $1.8M in the bush..........

[miff]

Don\'t believe Jerry Moss is too worried about the purse money.Z\'s value is substantially set win or lose in the BC Classic or Distaff,although a Classic win could add some value. Doubt she\'ll be for sale anyway nor will her offspring.


Mike

[Dana666]

I\'m probably the biggest \"Zen\" fan on this board, and I couldn\'t agree more with your very wise words. No reason to change the way they\'ve managed her career now; there is much more to lose than to gain,and yes they had their shot at Rachel and didn\'t take it, so what\'s the point now? I fully believe she would have beaten Rachel in the Woodward (given the set up and the way the race panned out), but that opportunity (if it ever really existed) is past, and horse of the year was settled with that race. Furthermore, the way the main track plays at Santa Anita, (dead? heavy?) whatever you want to call it, I don\'t think she\'d have any shot to rally the way she does against top males - it\'s difficult to close much if at all on that track - she beats the girls because she\'s so much better, but she\'s not that much better than the males and certainly not all those Euro\'s that would come over. Great post.

[Ill-bred]

Great horses deserve the chance to race outside of restricted company, and I do believe Zenyatta is great. She belongs in the Classic.

I will be shocked if they go in the Distaff.

Silver Charm and Dana, she has more to gain and less to lose in the Classic.

She loses to colts - no big deal, she\'s still two-time champion older female and a lock for the Hall of Fame.

If she loses to fillies, her cred will be further questioned.

[Dana666]

The Euro\'s are better than you think, and they are poly-track specialists, e.g. Gitano Hernando. I don\'t believe she\'d have any shot against halfway decent male Euro\'s. Doesn\'t matter who they are, so many horses over there that can\'t cut it on grass, but love synthetics, and with the increasing number of syhnthetic tracks over there, these horses are just waiting in the wings (and think about how much better your average horse trainers on these European circuits are compared with the standard American pharmacist-trainers - you\'re kidding yourself if you think we can compete with them). Most of the American horses who run on synthetic tracks are so inferior to these - the Euro\'s will eat them for breakfast, Zen being no exception.

[HP]

FWIW, I agree with Ill-Bred 1,000%.  Who cares about her beating fillies not named Rachel?

[Flighted Iron]

Dana,

 Provided she navigates the course safely there isn\'t a losing situation for her
and the connections.She\'s solidified her rep and her progeny\'s rep.So,as a handicapper where is the value?Is getting beat in the Classic a better proposition
than getting beat in the Ladies?


mjs

[Wrongly]

Oh, I hope John Sheriffs continues to show us his yellow streak and Zenyatta goes in the ladies classic.  What price could I get on Careless Jewel?