Rachel Work

[mjellish]

Can\'t verify the accuracy of this as it came from Daily Racing Form, but Rachel worked 6F today with the following splits:

13
12:20
12:40
12:20
12:20
12
6F time 1:14
gallop out another furlong 13 for 7F in 1:27


If this is accurate, reading between the lines, she relaxed early, finished very strong and the extra gallop out in 13 is a farily good indicator that she is probably getting close to racing shape.  From the sounds of it they are going to give her a harder 6F work next week. I wouldn\'t pay too much attention to the final time of that work, but pay close attention to the gallop out.  If she goes fast early her gallop out time may be the best indicator that we can get of her overall condition.  Going to see if I can find someone down there to clock it.  She will be an overwhelming favorite in her comeback race and I, for one, would like to know as much about her condition as possible.  Can\'t possibly play her, but if I can find a reason to play against her it could be fat city.

[Ill-bred]

Saw the video of the work, and thought she looked great. Little or no wasted motion as she glides over the ground.

[bellsbendboy]

Appeared to me that Rachel came out of the bridle the last hundred yards or so and was noticably on a very loose rein.  This indicates a horse short on conditioning and if so the Assmussen camp will adjust accordingly, or try.

Of note is that she has been working every six days and the move on 2/12/10 only two worked because of an awful track.  Rachel worked in one o three and change and her stablemate, a Texas bred, went in one o two flat.

While fillies are easier to get fit than colts and there are a lot of oats to be eaten before they meet...I would be very surprised if Rachel holds off the big mare.  BBB

[bobphilo]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
  She will be an
> overwhelming favorite in her comeback race and I,
> for one, would like to know as much about her
> condition as possible.  Can\'t possibly play her,
> but if I can find a reason to play against her it
> could be fat city.

Given that Rachel can likely beat anyone except Quality Road and Zenyatta if she\'s so much as 80% fit, betting against her in her comeback is just too much of a stretch for me, regardless of the possible payoff.

[miff]

\"While fillies are easier to get fit than colts and there are a lot of oats to be eaten before they meet...I would be very surprised if Rachel holds off the big mare\"

Hi Bell,

You having  a few with dinner?. Z has no answer for the Rachel of last year. Just a matter of IF Rachel comes back as good. Not many posts here about the fact that Rachel was only a 3 YR OLD FILLY last year when accomplishing unprecedented things in racing(and running scary speed figs).How bout if she\'s a little stronger as a 4yr old, which is quite possible.


Mike

[TGJB]

The Texas bred was one of mine, a two-time stakes winning filly with a couple of 6\'s as a 2yo, who was 8 days from her seasonal debut. She was a lot further along than Rachel.

Steve trains and has trained a lot of horses I\'m involved with. a) They all work VERY slow, and b) as anyone can see from the trainer stats, he\'s a lot better second off a layoff than the time before.

On the larger question-- I\'ve been tied up with the Rachel case so I haven\'t ben posting much, but this is a Thoro-Graph board, and it\'s time we got this discussion back on track. To get Z to beat R you either have to get R not to run her top (neg 4 1/2), or Z to run more than 3 points better than she has ever run. Now, you may be able to make the case for either of those things, but that\'s what it\'s about-- not running anyone down.

[P.Eckhart]

Any case made on comparitives on TG numbers from different surfaces is flawed to begin with.

[TGJB]

Aside from everything else, a) Z ran the same figure in her one try on dirt that she did in her synth efforts, and b) there haven\'t been a whole lot of fillies that could run neg 5\'s. (Like, name one).

Cushion is not Pro-Ride or Poly, it\'s effectively dirt. Her three tries on that stuff are right in line as well. Zenyatta gets lots of credit for being very good (and very consistent) on all surfaces but there\'s no reason to think she will sprout wings and suddenly get 6-7 lengths faster at age six. So if she\'s going to beat Rachel it\'s going to be because Rachel doesn\'t run her race.

[Silver Charm]

What is Assmussen 2nd off the Layoff. I have wondered that myself.

And second off the layoff after a 180 day plus layoff.

[TGAB]

Attached is the Thoro-Graph sheet for Rachel Alexandra. Asmussen\'s profile 2nd off the layoff is shown.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> To get Z to beat R  you either have to get R not
> to run her top (neg 4 1/2), or Z to run more than
> 3 points better than  she has ever run. Now, you may
> be able to make the case for either of those things,
> but that\'s what it\'s about -- not running anyone down.

Wish I could have come up with what you wrote, JB -- I needed it about 3 months ago.

I\'ve been hearing this \"Zenyatta can go faster if she needs to\" crappola for a couple of months now (from elsewhere, not here), and I keep thinking, Zenyatta doesn\'t win by a whole lot as it is -- if she has to catch someone that *isn\'t* puking during the last 100 yards of the race (i.e., Rachel), just how much faster can Z run and still hit the wire first? What is Z going to do, come home in :21 and change?

[mjellish]

That\'s exactly right in my opinion.  I believe slow early, fast late race shapes can create havoc with final figures and times.  But a horse can only go so fast at the end of the race regardless of what they do early.  If they are 5 lengths off the leader and come home a final quarter in 23 flat they may pass everyone.  But if they are 12 lengths off the leader that same 23 flat probably won\'t do it.  ESPECIALLY if the leader can go fast early and STILL come home in 24 or so.  

Now Rachel can obviously lay down a blistering early pace and still come home quicker than she should be able to.  This is why she is an absolute freak of nature in my opinion.  From what I can tell, she is the best since Ruffian and that was a little before my time.  So to my mind, Rachel\'s ability to go fast both early and late will put Z at a distinct disadvantage.  If Rachel runs her race, Z is going to have to be closer early if she expects to run Rachel down.  She can\'t come home in 22 flat to make up 10 lengths.  So she is going to have to change her style, and I don\'t think she can expend more energy early and still come home in 23 and change.

All this being said, this next start is probably as vulnerable as Rachel has been in over a year.  Remember, they moved that Oaklawn race back a week just to give her extra time to get ready because the trainer had concerns about having her ready to fire her best race by THEN.  So what does that say about where she will be in 11 days?

It will be interesting to see how the field shapes up.  I bet against this filly in the Preakness and that cost me.  I didn\'t dare bet against her after that, and I can\'t take the short money to play with her.  Looking back, I would still do it the same way all over again... a 3 year old filly coming off a negative 4 on 2 weeks rest from the 13 post at Pimlico against the colts after switching barns??

I am a huge fan of Rachel and sentimentally I am therefore routing for her.  But she is not undefeated.  There really isn\'t anything at stake here.  I don\'t think she is going to fire much more than a 0 here.  She may not even do that.  Depending upon the field that day she may still be good enough to win.  But if there is at least one legit threat to her the rubber band may have to come off for this one.  She will be single on most exotic multi-race wagers...

Also, if she were to lose her first time back I wonder what would happen to the future bets and the odds on race day.  Assuming a roughly even money proposition vs. Z, if Rachel trains forwardly, I would go ALL IN on her to beat Z.  Those figures are legit.  

Maybe I won\'t have to work this year.

[nyc1347]

man you guys overanalyze everything.  the number is the number and we have to wait and see if rachel runs an effort \"in line\" with her previous efforts.  as far as i am concerned shes coming back off of almost a 5 point bounce last out and although that was months ago no one knows what she will run until she runs it after this huge layoff.  Any effort between a 0 and neg 4 would be a good sign in my opinion. At the same time, i wouldnt be surprised if she ran a negative or positive 4 though.

You guys remember a horse by the name of Flower Alley?   Horse ran great towards the end of its 3 year old campaign and then came out like a Donkey at 4 years old.  She could very well be like that, who knows only time will tell.  All this talk is just bla bla bla.

[smalltimer]

Mike,
That\'s a good point.  

Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a very young 3 year old filly last year. Even this year, she just turned 4.  
   
Z was foaled 10-29-2004.  When she won the BC Classic last year in November, she had just turned 5 the week before.  She doesn\'t actually turn 6 until this October.    

Not as much of an actual age difference as some think.

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> man you guys overanalyze everything.
>
> You guys remember a horse by the name of Flower
> Alley?   Horse ran great towards the end of its 3
> year old campaign and then came out like a Donkey
> at 4 years old.  She could very well be like that,
> who knows only time will tell.

Hang on, lemme write this bon mot down, in case I forget it.

WOW.