ROTW - Sham Stakes

[nyc1347]

Just one horse in this race to me.



5 -  Setsuko - bounced going 1st time turf last out which is an excuse for me especially with the slooow fractions. Still just missed winning that race getting 2nd by a 1/2 length telling me that all the horses running abilities were effected by whatever conditions and variables were for that race. I expect this guy to continue forging past the 6.5 and has 60 days off from that top effort to do so.  A new top in my opinion should be expected and that would be huge in a race like this with many slower horses in it. Hes a little slower out of the gate than most of these so id expect a ground saving trip from midpack and bust a move at the end.  Can obviously get the distance with no problem as shown last out.  Setsuko is my pick and Good Luck to all!

[Dana666]

Will they even run the race with the rain??? I hope they don\'t cancel the card, but it seems likely.

[nyc1347]

who knows but hopefully the buckets are out on the track right now.. Aquelakes cancelled their card already with the snow.

[nyc1347]

Opinion has not changed whatsoever for this race. Il excuse that turf effort and expect a continuation of the forging pattern past 6.5!  Good Luck to all!

[sekrah]

I agree that Setsuko is a major contender here but how do you not like The Program?

[nyc1347]

my take on the program is that the horse has reached the end of a line (temporarily) and at absolute best from what i personally see is that it will run a 6 effort.  It is a solid number in this race but multiple horses in this race are running off of forward and forging efforts(with no end line).  Young horses are always improving in leaps and bounds so I would rather play a horse forging rather then pairing up multiple times (with the idea that the pattern has become flat and leveled off). The idea with Setsuko is that there is no end of the line according to its pattern.  By excusing the turf effort my opinion is that not only is the horse forging forward but its also forging forward off the fastest number in the field with a 6.5.  The horse in my eyes should continue to go forward today to a new top effort especially with very nice timing into the race from its 6.5 effort.  That would be huge in this race since many in here are much slower.

[Leamas57]

Nice job NYC! You put it out there...

Leamas

[Silver Charm]

As far as this being some kind of significant Derby Prep the race was aptly named.

Man was this ugly.

[nyc1347]

thanks leamas and yes this race was filled up with some pretty bad horses!

[Leamas57]

I don\'t know..the winner came home in 1.48 and three-fifths. Granted the track seemed fast, but that\'s still fast and though the race was a furlong shorter, they went a mile two-fifths faster than the group in the Big Cap...

Leamas.

[Michael D.]

Alphie was 3w/4w. Not as fast as the big race, but not too far off (Misremembered was 2w/2w). Finished in :12.2. Remember, this guy came within a length and a half of Caracortado two back (I bet him that day at 14-1, he closed very well). Cara beat 3 of the best runners in Cal last out. One of the most impressive preps so far from AB, though we really can\'t judge the Derby implications, and that is unfortunate.

And how about the Big Cap? A Baffert runner stalks the speed, wins in 2:00.2. 14 horses, most of them solid graded types. 3 of the top 5 choices make the super. Played out just like the old days. And, btw, Baffert bred that horse. Sire won the Pac Classic in 1:59. Broodmare sire Quack is out of a Princequillo mare (ya know, like Secretariat), and ran one of the fastest 10f races in history in the Hol GC back in 1972 (1:58.2). I didn\'t bet the race, but, WOW!, does Bob Baffert deserve credit for this one. The guy is good.

A great Big Cap day, though I\'m certainly ready for a safe dirt course.

[miff]

Tough to gauge this race with the field a very common bunch going in.A steady mist made that surface faster later in the card(last race 108.4 for nw 2 life $12.5k claiming slugs) Very fast last eights/quarters late in the card on that surface.

Alfie ran the best by far but tough to judge his ability off this race.


Mike

[nyc1347]

man im happy i did some damage control.. i wound up putting $3800 on the 6 and that left me down big but i previously had $1000 on Setsuko to show and $400 to show on the #7 in the last race which paid big so i wasnt down THAT much.  On to the next one!   Great day though!

[Michael D.]

Thanks Mike. I hadn\'t seen the 1:08.95 there in the final race.

Yeah, other than AB\'s wide trip score, not much to write about in the Sham. Not a strong field.

[miff]

Wow, Sham came up on the slow side for Alfie,86 Beyer,app TG 5 if JB agrees.Measured purely on the Big Cap raw time and Misremembered getting a Beyer of 104, seems like creative license was taken,not unusual.


Mike