NYC-
Let me first say that horse racing is certainly a sport that can teach you what you don\'t know, and when you find out what you don\'t know it usually turns out to be alot. I know that has been the case with me.
I agree with much of your take about pattern handicapping. It\'s a method I firmly believe in. I would say, however, that you have to be careful not to be too rigid with how apply this method of handicapping to your betting behavior at the windows. The numbers are what make the pattern, and the numbers by themselves are only numbers. Horses are living, breathing animals with preferred running styles and distances. If you take a horse like Bourban Bay, for example, and try running him at 5F on the grass - see what his number comes back at. Same thing goes the other way, try running a horse like Midnight Lute at 1 1/4 and see what his sheet turns out to look like.
Now those are extreme examples. But distance preferences for horses can be very subtle. Sometimes all it takes is an extra 1/8th of a mile and horse\'s performance will suffer. They simply won\'t win unless they are facing an over matched field, get a perfect trip, have a bias aid them, etc., and I don\'t care what their pattern looks like. This is especially true at the classic distances of 1 1/4 and beyond, and even more true in a race like the KY Derby. Every year for almost all of these horses it is the first time they will be going 1 1/4, and for many it will turn out to be the last. Under the right circumstances a horse that is really more of miler may get a 1 1/8th, but that horse will usually be dead in the water at 1 1/4. In my opinion, this is also why very few horses move forward in the KY Derby. They simply aren\'t able to carry their speed or maintain their closing kick at 1 1/4. It takes extra reserves of stamina to get that additional 1/8th, and most horses these days aren\'t bred or trained for it because the owners and breeders want to recoup their money as fast as possible. That means racing at age 2, and breeding for speed and precocity. Imagine being a young teenager and being taught how to swim fast for a 1/4 of mile. All of your musculature and skeletal structure begins to adapt to this training. Then suddenly, you turn 18 and are expected to train for a few weeks and then swim a mile. Your body just isn\'t going to adapt that fast. Now imagine that your IQ is 50 and you have no comprehension of what distance even is and no idea about what is happening to you. You\'re just training as your told. So in addition to being able to physically handle the demands of the new distance, somehow mentally you are supposed to get all of this and understand that your next race is going to be very different than everything else you have known.
This is exactly what happens in the KY Derby, and it is another reason why the national average for winning favorites may be a little upwards of 35%, but in the KY Derby it is much lower.
I don\'t care how good of a handicapper you are. If you don\'t take into your heart that sometimes distance takes precedence over pattern you are going to lose bunch of money. And as it sits right now, in my opinion, unless I see something substantially different over the next few weeks, I would be willing to bet a LARGE amount of money that this is exactly the case with a horse like Noble\'s Promise. I don\'t care what his sheet looks like. To my eye, the way he fades in the lane and shuts down soon after the wire indicates he doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4. His breeding would seem to agree with this. True, there are always horses who outrun their breeding and we never know for sure until they try the distance. These three year olds can also improve a bunch, in a hurry, and sometimes all it takes is a change in running style and WHAM - it\'s like the lights turned on. This could still happen with this horse, but I think it is highly unlikely.
I firmly believe this to be true of horses. I would even go out on a limb and say that a horse like Quality Road probably won\'t win at 1 1/4 at the Grade I level anywhere unless he faces a really short field of marginal horses. I\'ve seen him race enough now to know he\'s really more of miler. He even set a track record sprinting. It\'s a very rare horse that is going to do that and also win a GI at 1 1/4 or beyond. And I would look to play against Quality Road at that distance if I get the chance.
After playing this ever changing game pretty seriously for two decades or so, this is something I swear you can take to the bank. Sometimes distance will trump pattern. Especially at the classic distances. I guarantee it.
