Ice Box has a ton of stamina influence in the bottom side of his pedigree

[Flighted Iron]

Louisiana Derby: Taking a shot with Stay Put.Ground loss while running into a slow
pace last time.Obviously hoping for ground save and legit up front.Been working
consistent and well since the last.Hoping for a decent price.

Good luck,
mjs

[analizethis]

So do we have a consensus of opinion on this board as to why Ice Box didn\'t change leads on Saturday? Is it inexperience, a sign of injury or will he just never get it?

That\'s the key question going into May 1 and needs to be the key thing we watch for as he works out in the weeks to come.

Bob

[Flighted Iron]

Suppose it should be noted IB switched to his correct lead in his 2 prior
races.

good luck,
mjs

[Silver Charm]

And how did he finish up after he switched leads. Often times horses switch leads because they fatigue but slow down once they are asked to run on the leg they would prefer not to be putting weight on.

Ice Box has six weeks to get healthier and if his training is not compromised because of whatever issue there may be this is a non-issue for someone looking to bet on him.
But it is a flag on the day-to-day and while a horse may win again despite not wanting to switch leads eventually it will get him.

[Flighted Iron]

IB won both his prior races while switching to the correct lead and staying on the correct lead.


mjs

[jack72906]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And how did he finish up after he switched leads.
> Often times horses switch leads because they
> fatigue but slow down once they are asked to run
> on the leg they would prefer not to be putting
> weight on.
>


I watched the gallop out a couple of times and it seemed like every horse in the field blew past IB AND Rule in the gallop out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFObMTA6qmI

[Silver Charm]

Ice Box coming into the race on a two race winning streak.

I thought he was beaten 5 lengths in the FOY

[mjellish]

He was beaten 12 lengths in the FOY

[miff]

IB had a brutal trip in the FOY. Given the overall lack of imposing 3yr olds so far, he has to be considered as one with a longshot\'s chance with the right derby set up.Zito seen to be \"unconscious\" by some but he shows up fairly often in May.


Mike

[Niall]

re the gallop out when I saw initially we all said that looks like a sore horse with a very ouchy pullup soon after the wire ...

[Flighted Iron]

pardon me.my mistake,however IB did switch to the correct lead in the FOY as well.
So,3 straight races where he switched to the correct lead and stayed there through
the lane.


mjs

[mjellish]

No he didn\'t.  He was on the wrong lead.  I saw it clearly during the race and pointed this out to a fellow capper because he hadn\'t seen it.  When they showed the replay we confirmed it. He\'s right next to pleasant prince so it should be easy to see.  The fact that this is not something the horse has done in the past and the way he completely shut down after the wire would seem to me to indicate an all out exhausting effort or an issue that is about to rear its ugly head.  Either way, this horse is going to need all of that 6 weeks to recoup and I would need to see clear positive signs in his training to include him in KY, if he makes it that far.

[covelj70]

I can pretty much end this suspense now about whether Ice Box makes it to the starting gate for the derby by divulging that I have a ticket from the Wynn on Ice Box at 85-1 to win the thing and so there\'s  no way that he even comes close to making it to the race because god forbid I be allowed to enjoy some fun in the game and/or have a few of my futures bets live on the First Sat in May so that I can have some built-in hedges against whoever the spirit (i.e. the Mint Juleps) move me to play that particular wonderful Sat.  

And yes, before anyone points this out, I completely diluted my potential returns by placing futures bets on too many different horses (I think it was 6 all together).  I have said before I am an idiot junkie for the futures bets. It will take every ounce of restraint in my body not to dive in again this weekend for pool 3.  As Jimbo used to say, I bet more like an owner than a gambler (man I miss that guy I this board) and as JB will attest to, I suck at owning them as well.

Also, because I know that everyone has been anxiously awaiting the update....my wife got nixed from the Derby trip this year after that inexplicably weak effort passing out from too many Juleps right after Mine that Bird crossed the wire last year.  This year it\'s a big boy trip only.  Sorry babe.

[Silver Charm]

Ice Box will be there. Zito does not need a whole lot of coerscion to run a horse in the Derby.

He ran the fill-in last year when there was a late removal around draw day.

This horse will be there with 6 wks rest and trainer who has won the race more than once before.

[covelj70]

well, then his weight assignment will be 205lbs of me on his back, let\'s see if he can switch leads tacking that!