Super Saver and Rule

[TGJB]

Jim-- agree with everything but the merry-go-round. Ground loss, ground loss, ground loss.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

You make a good case.  And it is certainly not surprising to me to see TGJB agree with what you write.

Now with this next section I am about to write, I should be probably be banned, but I can\'t resist.

The reason I am not surprised to see TGJB agree with you is that I believe from memory that the sheets of both Super Saver and Rule are extremely similar to a horse that TGJB touted in his Derby Seminar, his Preakness analysis and at least another race or two after that, a few years back.  Jim, before you unload on Super Saver or Rule, i would suggest you go back to the archives and review the sheet of High Limit going into the Derby/Triple Crown a few years back.  I could be wrong, but I believe the horse had a \"1\" as a 2 year old, at Delaware Park.  Came back in a Fair Grounds race and paired the 1 as a ROTW winner.  Lots of criticism on this board of TGJB\'s figure for that race (not from me, but others).  The horse then ran in the Bluegrass and was touted again by TGJB but after a soft trip on the lead, got run over by a 3w/3w Bandini (who ran a negative 3 or so).  I believed he paired up again in that race, another \"1\".  So, going into the Derby he had all the traditional sheet profile factors (and was about 20-1, similar to Rule and Super SAver).  He had the big 2 year old top, paired it twice at 3, and seemed poised for the \"move forward\" in the Derby and had a pattern \"sitting on go\".  TGJB called him the \"value of the Derby\" (or something like that).

Many of us on this board, myself included, thought he was much more likely to come in last than first.  He was going from races where the race dynamics were in his favor (soft leads) to a race with a hot early pace.  The pattern he had was a moot point to those that factored in things like pace and race dynamcis.  He ran miserably.  I think with an excuse (but I don\'t remember for sure).

The epitaph was that He came back and ran as miserable in the Preakness.  Then ran again later in the year, miserable.  Maybe ran on turf after that, badly again.  Not sure he ever ran another \"1\".

Many on this board put the whole blame on what they perceived as TGJB\'s \"bad figure\" in the Louisiana Derby.  I was not in that camp.  I think it was just race dynamics, with a horse that needed the lead to run his best figure and needed an unpressured lead, especially at 1 1/4 miles.  

I think I am going to do now, what I should have done before I wrote this and pulled his sheet, but i am pretty sure I am right about it.  

TGJB, sorry for bringing up old wounds.  But I am sure the figure for the Louisiana Derby was correct, no matter what Chuckles and Class had to say about it

Jim

[TGJB]

Some similarities, some not so much. And he did okay later.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Thanks for posting the sheet.  What do you find not similar?  (of course, no horses have the exact same sheet).

Good 2 year old top, paired tops in both preps at 3.  Speed horse that tried to rate going into his last prep before the Derby (just like Super Saver).  Paired in the race, making it look like a \"go\" pattern.  Now faces what appears to be much more speed in the Derby.  (h_pace for Derby).

High Limit ran 5 races at 3 after his Bluegrass and didn\'t get back to the \"1\".

I forgot that he ran a good one at 4 years old.  (age is a terrible thing, can\'t remember everything)

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- First of all, haven\'t done the Arkansas Derby yet, but let\'s say it\'s a pair. The big difference is the 2yo pattern, much better for 3yo development with SS.

Worth noting that of the 5 later starts as a 3yo for HL, one came over a dead rail, and two came on grass. Also, remember there was the whole super-testing thing in the TC races for the first time that year.

And of course that raises a whole bunch of questions this year as well. Surface changes, testing questions... easy game.

[mjellish]

I think you make some good points Jim, but to my eye Super Saver is toast at 1 1/4.  I understand your point about his pattern, but Pletcher tends to get his tops from a 3 year old 2nd out, not 3rd (you probably don\'t need to see the trainer profile to know that).  So if I was a betting man, and I am, I would bet that TAP had Super Saver fully cranked for the ARK Derby.  Why wouldn\'t he?  It\'s a million dollar race and ESK looks pretty tough right now.

So I don\'t see a new top coming from him in the Derby, especially at the distance.

With regards to how the track was playing on Saturday there were 7 front running winners (3 that went Wire to Wire), one pace presser, and 3 that came from far out of it.  To me that doesn\'t add up to a very strong speed bias.

You make a good point about a horse having an affinity for Churchill, which can be important.  That track has a higher clay content to it than most others, a sort of throw back to they used to be.  It can be a quirky surface, even more so than others, and some horses can really take to it.

I somewhat agree with your opinion on Borel, but I just don\'t think it matters in this case because I don\'t think the horse can get the distance.  Put him on Mission Impazible or Endoresement and now you\'ve captured my interest as a possible longshot underneath type.

Everytime I handicap this race out this year I keep coming back to ESK and Lucky.  They just look to be by far and away the two best.  Makes me feel like a complete wuss.  I sure hope I can find something in how they all work or this is going to set up to potentially be a very frustrating derby for me.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

This was a cool analogy to raise.  Very interesting.

The issue for me is that all of the horses not named Eskendereya have huge question marks associated with them and at least this guy has a good pattern, rated a bit in his last, likes the track, has the best jock for the race and will be the right price.

The others have just as big if not bigger questions but will be much lower prices or they don\'t look very good at all:

LAL - you have raised all of the very real issues there and low odds

Sydney\'s Candy - Race shape and never been on dirt.  Will be 2nd/3rd choice so low odds

Ice Box - Shut down after the wire in the Fla Derby and looks like a bounce pattern (note what Pleasant Prince did off off a similar pattern albeit on a different surface on Sat)

Noble\'s promise - doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4 and might be banged up now anyway

Line of David - race shapes and bounce candidate

Mission Impazzible - race shapes and as a half to Forest Camp, there\'s no way he wants 1 1/4

Stately Victor - Slow, maybe a poly specialist and bounce

Conveyance - race shapes and distance

American Lion - better than alot of the others but still race shapes and slow figs but he could still move forward in the derby so that\'s why I say ok

Dublin - couldn\'t beat SS on Sat, not the best looking pattern

Discreetly Mine - no figures good enough and race shapes, could move forward in Derby but alot slower than SS to start and won\'t have Calvin

I could go on but its about the same with all of the others.

I can\'t throw everyone out underneath against Esk.  Someone has to come in 2nd and 3rd if he wins, don\'t they?

[covelj70]

MJ

Mission Impazzible is half to Forest Camp, he would certainly seem to me to more distance challenged than a Maria\'s Mon out of AP Indy Mare with a 3rd dam by northern dancer that set a track record at 8.5f.

I don\'t see super saver as distance limited but maybe I am missing something which is why all of this back and forth is good.

Totally agree with Esk. Unless something happens between now and then it\'s his to loose but I am not sold on LAL yet.  He\'s going to find alot of traffic trouble in this derby as alot of these speedballs stop in front of him and GoGo will probably have him 10 wide after the rash of guff he took from Baffert after the last race.  He\'s only slightly faster than the rest of the crew beyond Esk going in so it\'s not like he has 10 lengths to give up and still hit the board like Esk does.

[mjellish]

Agree with you about MI pedigree.  But, I also have to look at how the horse runs on the track, which I believe trumps pedigree.  He was the only horse to close and win at Fair Grounds on LA Derby day, although he didn\'t exactly do it very fast or in dominating style.  Either way I give him a slight upgrade for that performance.  I don\'t know what his last number was, but I think his pattern will be good.  The lack of 2 year old foundation and experience is probably the biggest negative.  But yes, he has some big question marks.  They all do.  Looks like a slow crop of three year olds, so i\'m going to have to lower the bar.  I know I am reaching a bit.
 
I Still have a couple of weeks to pull this together.

Works, works, works...  going to be the key this year.  Anyone that is stepping up AND pops at the added distance will probably have a great shot to get up for a piece.

Hell, you may even be able to structure a whole bet this year just based on wether you think Sidney\'s Candy can rate or not.  He\'s going to take a lot of money.

[covelj70]

MJ,

couldn\'t agree with you more about the works.

before last year, the derby winner going back for a bunch of years has fired a big time bullet at some point between their final prep and the race.  If not their last work, then the next to last work has always been a big big one.

Then of course that dam cowboy showed up last year with his trailer and won his one thoroughbred race for the year last year.  Still shaking my head about that a year later.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

You are right, somebody has to finish underneath even if Eskendereya is as good as some think.

And for now, I don\'t have any good ideas on that yet, other than to say that I will likely throw out all horses that I expect to be pace compromised and also throw out Lookin at Lucky, who I have a strong negative opinion on.  

But for now, my betting strategy around the derby is to \"fire hard\" into the Oaks-Derby double pool, as I am very anti-Blind Luck and she figures to go off favored.  And also to play the pick-4 into the Derby, likely singling Eskendereya.

I want to see workouts and analyze final sheets of the entrants before I put in my Superfecta tickets with Esky on top.  Although the Superfecta in the derby brings back bad memories for me from a couple years back.  Possibly dumbest move in a long list of dumb moves over the years (like a lot of gamblers).  I had a very strong pro-Tale of Ekati stance and a pretty strong Denis of Cork stance on this board before the Derby.  And we all know that Big Brown was the standout horse that year.  However, I was expecting Eight Belles to run in the Oaks and was sure she was \"over the top\" and was looking to bet against her at short odds in the Oaks.  Well, when she entered into the Derby instead of the Oaks, she went from 3-5 to about 11-1 and the \"view of her\" should have changed from \"over the top\" to \"outside of Big Brown, she was the next fastest horse in the race, with multiple races at that level\" and a must-use.  I threw her out.  She comes 2nd, my 30-1 and 40-1 shots finish out the super, paying 40 or 50k and a few people on this board thank me for talking them into TAle of Ekati and helping them hit the super.  I got \"oogats\" for the day because I was so sure Eight Belles was not going to run well....

[richiebee]

Guess I\'ll throw my hat in the ring with the heavy hitters:

1) Eskie-- fastest, bred for any distance, 5/2 -- 3/1 on Derby Day. Are his
figures \"pumped up\" by his large margins of victory in the 5 runner off the turf
Pilgrim, the FOY and a very weak Wood?

Who has he beaten? NW2LT Aikenite? Calder Stallion Series star Jackson Bend? A
compromised Awesome Act? The one-two finishers in the Florida Derby came out from
Eskie\'s FOY and picked up the pieces of a race which fell apart in front of them.

2) LAL-- Prolific winner from multiple Derby winning trainer. Was he fully
cranked when he zeroed at OP in the Rebel in his first dirt try? Pedigree just
fine, has been pointed towards this race since winning the Del Mar Futurity in
September. I am stuck with him at 9/1 in futures pool 2.

3) Sidney\'s Candy -- Does he jump forward first try dirt? Would be willing to
annoint him as speed of the speed but according to DRF he has broken poorly in 2
of his last 4 starts.

4) Super Saver-- Like the fact that he won a two turn CD stake last fall. Leaning
towards thinking he can get the distance.

5) Mission Impazible -- Another with a pedigree which should not limit him. A
nifty Louisiana Derby win, but no works since according to DRF.

6) Ice Box and 7) Awesome Act -- one run types who will need to have their GPSs
working to get through the 20 horse field; there is no question they will get the
pace up front they seem to require. Very good decision by AA\'s trainer Noseda to
train AA up to the Derby on the deep Belmont training track.

My first two stone cold tosses: Stately Victor and Deans Kitten, the turf/synth
duo from Michael \"Miracle\" Maker.

Fun Fact: Sons of Birdstone accounted for 2 of the 3 legs of last years Triple
Crown; not a single Birdstone runner among this year\'s contenders.

[big18741]

Richie

Mission Impazible worked 4f breezing on Sunday at PM along with Rule and Discreetly Mine.

Borels take back to last style 1w1w trip is perfect in this year\'s field.You have a bunch of front running pressing types that never passed horses routing:

Rule
Super Saver
Sidneys Candy
American Lion
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine

His talents seem wasted on a horse like Super Saver IMO unless he can get him back off it and rating.I have my doubts on that happening.

Think the race comes down to sorting these out over the next couple of weeks:

Esk
LAL
Endorsement
Ice Box
Mission Impazible
Uh Oh Bango

The last two showed an interest in passing horses going 9f\'s on dirt.They might be okay with inside posts.Ice Box on running style figures to pass at least 3/4\'s of the field.

[richiebee]

Big--

Thanks for the update on the MI work.

[sekrah]

> But yes, he has some big question marks.  They all
> do.  Looks like a slow crop of three year olds, so
> i\'m going to have to lower the bar.  I know I am
> reaching a bit.


In what year in the past decade has there been a good crop of three year olds?   \"Slow Crop of 3yos\" seems to be a statement that we hear every April around here.

This years proclaimed \"Super Horse\" that many people around here are way too eager to unload on him at 2-1, has questions marks.   I would even go so far as to say that every Derby winner in the history of the race has had question marks coming in.