First look at Oaks-Derby sheets

[toppled]

So I spent a little time today looking at the Oaks-Derby sheets and the 1st thing that stood out to me is the fillies with tops that separate them from the field pretty much have 2 things in common.  1st, their tops were all dramatic improvements and 2nd, many of them came in short fields. Now some, like Amen Hallelujah & Tidal Pool have paired or basically paired their jump up figure.  Here\'s my opinion of the Oaks group: I\'m looking at the Fair Grounds Oaks as the definitive race to look at in determining the Oaks winner. This is mainly because the two fillies I\'ve zeroed in on both come out of that race.  I just don\'t like the foundations of the fillies who have run fast going into the Oaks & I expect a few bounces.  Plus those fast races in short fields makes me wonder what these fillies will do in a large field, something they haven\'t been battle tested to handle.  
My current top 2 for the Oaks, subject to draw:  FG Oaks winner Quiet Temper, whose figure was slower than 5 of the faster top fillies, but looks like she has the foundation for a forward move and FG Oaks 6th place finisher Ailalea, who was compromised by a wide throughout trip out of the tough 11 hole, and ran some good 2yo figures in NY last year.  Now Champagne D\'Oro ran the best figure in the FG Oaks from the tough 10 post, and last year\'s figures were on synthetics while sire Medaglia D\'Oro has better dirt #s, so she\'s probably my 3rd choice, but I didn\'t like the big move up in her last. With the big speed numbers in their recent races of Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Amen Hallelujah,Tidal Pool and to a lesser extent No Such Word, I expect pretty good odds on my top 2 picks.
Now I figure I\'m going to need them, because, unless it rains, which will cause me to back way down, I\'m expecting to see Eskendereya in the winner\'s circle on May 1st. I\'m just waiting for that last workout next weekend & PP draw to finalize my thoughts that we\'re looking at the same situation we saw with Smarty Jones & Big Brown-a horse who is clearly his generation\'s fastest & a pretty predictable winner. After studying Pletcher\'s workout pattern with Eskendereya this year, the ideal work should be 5f between 1:00-1:01.  If CD gets souped up, he could break a minute, but most likely Pletcher will want him in the 1-1:01 range.
If I was betting today,my Oaks Derby doubles would be
Quiet Temper,Ailalea/Eskendeeya. My top choice to finish behind Eskendereya is Awesome Act who has good enough #s and whose running style is good for a clunk up 2nd or 3rd trailing a runaway winner.  
While I\'ve seen plenty of Derby opinions, I haven\'t seen any Oaks ones, care to share 1st Oaks thoughts?

[sekrah]

If you\'ve been paying attention to the 3 year old preps the past 2 weeks (Ark, BG, Lex), you would see that there is very little that is predictable in this game.  I will confidently toss out any 2-1 shot in the Derby and if I get beat by it 2 or 3 times a decade so be it.   At 2-1 in a field of 20 baby horses where none have maximized their true full potential, there is very little to like about Eskendereya.  At 8-1 or longer, he\'s a gorgeous animal that I would happily key.  At 2-1, I\'ll let him beat me.

[SonicDonn]

sekrah Wrote:
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>  I will confidently toss out any 2-1
> shot in the Derby


I am glad to see someone admit their strategy is to toss ANY favorite in the Derby. I believe there has to be some discrimination between a bad or vulnerable favorite and a super strong favorite that is an almost certain winner with an uneventful, reasonable trip. If I get 3-1 on Big E, I will be thrilled to make a huge win bet.

sekrah Wrote:
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> there is very little to like about Eskendereya


Really?

[miff]

A thought after looking at the oaks/derby sheets.Sydney\'s Candy(2nd/3rd choice in the derby) has never run as fast as the 3yr old filly No Such Word and a few other 3 yr old fillies.Very interesting, since SC would be odds on if permitted to run in the Oaks as the 6th fastest going in.

Also incredible is the number of horses shipping from Cali synth surfaces and running huge tops on dirt.Are all of these \"slow\" fig\'d Cali horses, getting a boost when they leave Cali?. Deja vous to the days of the old Cali highway dirt tracks, when shippers from Cali ran new tops after shipping 3,000 miles,no less.

JB, how can so many different outfits ship out of Cali and get horses to run holes in the wind.We know about synth/dirt move ups, just in these 40+ oaks/derby horses,there are way too many.Can you have that circuit too slow to begin with?

You will recall that Beyer made some adjustment to their Cali figs which seem to be more in line, some improvement on dirt but not as huge as TG.Will take a look at Rags also but would appreciate your thoughts as surely you have seen the figs I\'m referring to.

If you only think that poor testing at other venues is the reason for the move ups, don\'t waste your valuable time in replying.


Mike

[Rick B.]

I also took my first look at the Derby / Oaks sheet, and the most intriguing horse amongst the colts so far is...Dublin.
 
Yes, Dublin.
 
Not for what he\'s done, but for what he hasn\'t done...or more to the point, what he hasn\'t had done to him.
 
Did someone finally get through to DWL that you don\'t have to run and train an animal hard for weeks on end to get them ready to run in the TC?
 
This horse shows some decent early ability as a juvenile, winning the Hopeful, then reacted strongly to that effort, which won him a nice (and productive) break from racing.

When he returned, Dublin responded with three decent (if not eye-popping) performances, returning to his 2yo top.
 
If it were most any other trainer, I\'d say, \"Meh -- the horse is back to his 2 yo form, but no more development showing, so either toss, or use underneath only.\"

I get a different read on Dublin: I see a trainer -- who has been unsuccessfully squeezing his horse\'s lemons dry for so long that I can vaguely remember him winning all those Derbies -- actually trying something different here.

Could Dublin be sitting on a big one? I think so. Tell me I\'m nuts. Seriously.

[TGJB]

Mike-- we\'re going to be doing a bunch of things with this in the seminar, it\'s obviously the single biggest issue to address with this year\'s Derby and Oaks-- what happens when they come from Cal synth to dirt, and also what happens the next time. We\'re running the studies now.

In the meantime: In the Ill Derby there were three of them. American Lion ran a new top, one paired, one ran an X. Dutrow\'s horse-- dirt/dirt-- also ran a big new top in that race. The same weekend, Dakota Phone (I think that\'s his name) went back several points in the Oaklawn Handicap going synth/dirt.

Think of it as if all they ran on in California was turf. When the horses left there to run on dirt some would prefer it, some would run worse, and some would be the same, no preference. The trick is to figure out which ones are which, and yes, I think a big factor in who jumps and who doesn\'t is ALSO the testing thing. I suspect that issue will come up a lot at Monmouth this summer as some notorious guys who have been shut down in California join the cast of bad actors at the Jersey shore, and I ain\'t talking MTV.

Also keep in mind that if the trainers can figure out who will prefer dirt, a high percentage of those shipping out will improve. Synth/dirt stats by trainer might be worth keeping an eye on.

[analizethis]

Favorites. Over the last ten years (decade of the 2000\'s) favorites have won 4 Kentucky Derby\'s (40%) (Fu Peg, Smarty Jones, Street Sense and Big Brown). Since the generally accepted benchmark for winning favorites is 33% and this race contains the largest field we see I find this over achievement by the betting favorites to be even more remarkable.

Now, some bad favorites have lost (Harlan\'s Holiday and Sweetnorthensaint) and some good favorites (Empire Maker and Point Given (as admitted by Gary Stevens)) had bad trips and lost but with all the focus on catching a bomb on top we need to keep in mind that the recent history of this race is pretty formful.

One of the current problems with the Derby is that the number of unknowns has grown significantly over the years (eg., how will the TAP barn react on the big stage with tough testing; how will SC (who I believe to be most likely to beat Esken) take to a new surface for him, how hot will the pace be, etc.) and therefore additional risk comes into the equation for which a bettor needs to be rewarded.

More thoughts as we move closer to the date and the field continues to get firmed but but tossing the favorite is not an angle I will support.

Also, concerning the field, is anyone familiar enough with the rules in Kentucky around coupling of entries to explain under what circumstances we might have coupled entries in this year\'s race (eg., would Jackson Bend and Ice Box or Rule and Super Saver be coupled in the betting)?

Bob

[flushedstraight]

Rick, you\'re absolutely not nuts, IMO. Sometimes they do actually set new tops in the derby. The raw stats say odds are against it but at 30+ to 1 the math appears to be in your favor. If you have issues with all the big new tops set this year by many others then obviously Dublin moves up the list. Nice work today. Lukas sticks with TJ?

[Uncle Buck]

Can anyone elaborate on the testing procedures that will take place prior to the Oaks/Derby? Any specific details that might help? Thanks

[miff]

JB,

Thanks.Just a small aside.The Meadowlands Harness racing testing(same as the runners??)is said to be the toughest in North America.Don\'t know if that is relevant, but do know that the drug thing gravitated from the trots to the flats, many years ago.

On Monmouth, I do think that part of the dominance of the NY guys had to do with running against inferior Jersey competition. Remember, a top NY owner told me BEFORE the Monmouth meet(2-3 years ago) that he would be the leading owner because he shipped many there instead of the SPA.

There is also the issue of the Monmouth surface,highly preferable to speed horses and of course the question of cheats.

Incidentally, NYRA fooling with defensive moves to deal with the Monmouth purse threat to the SPA meet and several Upstate NY politicians are on board.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Flushed and Rick B.,

A couple points:

1.  Dublin won\'t be 30+ to 1.  Half that is my over/under.

2.  He is another with a pattern that exceeds his actual talent and chances IMO.  (see Rule and Super Saver).  If Dublin was any kind of a horse he would have run by both Super Saver and Line of David, both of whom were looking for a place to lay down in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby.

3.  The horse seems to get one bad trip after another.  He somehow got 3w/3w while breaking from post 2 in the Arkansas Derby?  What happens when he runs in a 20 horse derby?

[TGJB]

Don\'t get me started.

[MO]

Yet the 2 worst races of his career were at CD. Tough read.

[MO]

On the other hand Super Saver set a stakes record at CD going 2 turns. He clearly likes the track. His running style despite the presence of lots of early speed, fits this track.

[miff]

Reportedly:

Dublin worked 59.13 this am at CD, galloped out poorly.Put a fork in him.

Rule gets Ramon Dominquez\'s kind hands. Not enough, imo,he\'ll be looking for a soft spot to lie down around the 1/8th pole on May 1st,right next to his stablemate Super Saver.

LAL worked like an elephant,not grabbing the track Friday and was tired. In spite of Baffy saying it was just what he wanted,toss!

Esky worked slowish 1.02 at PM on a deep surface. Work mirrors pre Wood works, must show up again, betting he will.Barn tense, know they have the best horse, by far.Need a little luck to get to the gate ok and a decent trip.

SC worked big, behind a mate, rushed home and galloped out fast. Question whether he\'ll rate off and still fire.Most likely to run big of all the speeds imo for a few reasons.

Nobel\'s Promise did not work but looked very good galloping. Sneaky if in and takes back making one late run.Took antibiotics recently though,a serious knock.

Zito pair,esp Icebox looked good,very alert.Jackson Bend, small but game does not appear to have the physicality to handle the rough-house 20 horse field, not getting faster.

Tricky likes Homeboychris works, delusional from too much Florida sun.

Awesome Act getting lots of mulligans,not from me.Watched him \"kinda\" pull both races. If he pulls in the derby, he\'ll finish last!


Mike