First look at Oaks-Derby sheets

[MO]

Monmouth Guy,

IMO, Rule should have pissed on that FL Derby field but he quit like cheap claimer.

IMO It can not be emphasized enough how much an advantage a race over the track is. And the race shape for the Derby, BTW,  is not carved in stone.

 There is NO WAY Rule is going to be sent. That means he will be asked to do something else he hasn\'t done (rate) in race full of \"he hasn\'t done this yet\" excuses. And you don\'t try to change a horses running style - especially in a big race - and expect to cash. It just doesnt happen with any degree of profitability.

Discreetly Mine is another who will NOT BE SENT and this tactic has already failed in his last race - another field he should have pissed on.

Sidney\'s Candy has already alluded to stalking this time around.

Jackson Bend is a grinding stalker.

Line of David is the only horse who has to send. Then he stumbles out of the gate and guess who\'s on the lead and wins like Spend a Buck? Me. That\'s who.

[nyc1347]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth Guy,
>
> IMO, Rule should have pissed on that FL Derby
> field but he quit like cheap claimer.
>



Yeaaaa a horse that runs his best effort ever (a 1 on the thoros no less) quits like a cheap claimer.  There were probably 6-7 horses in that race that were forward moving and Rule had a huge shot to lose that race against a horse who needed to set a new top to win just based on that angle alone...the angle being that a horse couldve exploded forward.. He lost to 2 of those horses... the same thing happened this weekend at the Blue Grass (on a different surface) which no one seems to consider on here and solely blames the poly for the result... but thats just another topic.

Doesnt mean it will happen again though.. if any horse beats Rule derby day we would have to assume imo that they will need better than a 1 effort to do so. Its not because hes going to quit like a cheap claimer.

[MO]

I respectfully disagree. I rarely even handicap anymore let alone bet, but Rule was a mortal lock that day and he spit the bit. I recall your board discussion, but chose not to partake. So I know how strongly you felt about Rule then and why you feel this way about him now. I just think you got really lucky on your call about him.

 I should be tarred and featherd for betting that POS at short odds though........And he actually backed up 1/2 a point BTW. He\'s faster figure wise, but his pattern is not as encouraging as Super Saver\'s, nor are his projected running style in the Derby. Remember, Dominguez is a rider who gets hired to ride good horses because he doesn\'t make many mistakes. Big difference between that and a rider who can move a horse up. He ain\'t gonna move Rule up.

[mjellish]

Tough to say what the pace will be like in this year\'s Derby, but I don\'t think it will be slow.  Line of David has won 3 in row going wire to wire, so I would think they\'re going to let him roll.  Baffert will surely let Conveyance roll.  That\'s all the horse knows to do and it helps ensure a fast pace for Lucky.

I know for a fact that the Pletcher barn is trying to teach Rule to rate and build stamina into him, but I don\'t think he\'ll be far behind the speed, and I didn\'t like his last work at all the other day.  Super Saver can rate, but I don\'t think he\'ll be far off the speed or change to a mid-pack presser either.  And like I\'ve said, it is my belief that if Super Saver was going anywhere he should have been able to get by Line of David in the ARK derby.  I don\'t think the extra 1/8th is going to help him in that regard, but I will be watching his works.

Then somewhere either right behind or mixed in with all of that you\'ve got American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Jackson Bend (if he gets in) and Sid.  They tried to add blinkers and rate American Lion, which seems like a strange combination to me, and he ran a very poor race in the San Felipe.  Trainer has since come right out and said that was a mistake, took the blinkers off, they let him run his own way in the ILL Derby, got a win and my guess would be they plan to let him run the way he wants in KY as well.  Tough to say how he will handle it, but either way I think Sid would get the best of him.  I think Discreetly Mine has a chance to relax and get first run on the tiring speed, but he\'s going to need to move forward a few points to get there.  Same with Jackson Bend, and I disagree with the theory of him being a rabbit for Ice.  

I think Sidney will rate.  I\'ve watched all his races I don\'t know how many times.  I know he can go 45 and change to the 1/2, but he hasn\'t run off in his last few races.  He also rated off the speed pretty well when he broke his maiden, has gained a lot of experience since then as well.  If he handles the dirt and moves forward he could be very tough as he likely will be in the bunch that gets first run at the tiring speed as well, and he has the quaility to keep going and kick away.

And somewhere around all of that, and probably at the same time, ESK will likely be moving up as well.  We know he can rate and fire.

I dunno.  With a bunch that will probably be tiring and/or trying to make a move on the turn, looks to me like there are going to be a few that lose a lot of ground.  Therefore although it\'s always important, I think Post Position is going to be key in seeing how this is going to sort out for some of these horses.  In analyzing the race shape, I would start with Line of David and Conveyance and work your way in and out from there.  See who is likely to fall in behind them and get 1-3W trip around both the turns.  Even without seeing the draw I don\'t think it is going to be ESK.  My guess is Johnny V will ride him with some confidence and try to keep him clear of trouble.  That usually means wide trip.

[nyc1347]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I respectfully disagree. I rarely even handicap
> anymore let alone bet, but Rule was a mortal lock
> that day and he spit the bit. I recall your board
> discussion, but chose not to partake. So I know
> how strongly you felt about Rule then and why you
> feel this way about him now. I just think you got
> really lucky on your call about him.
>
>  I should be tarred and featherd for betting that
> POS at short odds though........And he actually
> backed up 1/2 a point BTW. He\'s faster figure
> wise, but his pattern is not as encouraging as
> Super Saver\'s, nor are his projected running style
> in the Derby. Remember, Dominguez is a rider who
> gets hired to ride good horses because he doesn\'t
> make many mistakes. Big difference between that
> and a rider who can move a horse up. He ain\'t
> gonna move Rule up.


I had him running an off race (2-3 range) and not a top based on what he had shown to us previously with the rest situation at his top running level.  He wound up running even better than i thought (great sign) and backed just a little less than projected.  With plenty of rest going into the Derby I am very big on him running a top or limited newer top in the derby race(neg 1 - 0 or so).  The problem as I have said is with a few others running faster already its goin to be hard to put him in the winners circle BUT his value will be overshadowed (especially frm what i see on the board) and he has a great shot imo to hit the board underneath somewhere.  With a great trip saving ground he may not have to run faster than a 0 or so to even make the top 3.. but thats to be said.

Il respectfully agree to disagree.... i think luck mightve been if one horse beat Rule but there were two... my analysis (luck or no luck) showed that so many horses in that race had a good potential to move/explode forward AS WELL as Rule\'s potential to back up a bit. I couldnt take the low odds Rule.  To me if 6 horses were moving forward and one really faster one was moving back it was a 1 in 7 shot to win the race and the odds were not there to wager on him.. Derby day the odds WILL BE there to wager BUT il structure my wager accordingly thinking hes more likely than not to get a small piece rather than a big one.  THIS time he WILL have the rest and pattern going in that may allow him to pop even a greater effort at tremendous odds.

[MO]

I would agree that I would have to include Rule in a box at long odds. Those figures are scary fast, and he\'s a horse I\'d hate to get beat by, but his dosage (yep, that old tool), lack of race over the track as well as projected running style are big negatives for me.

If it aint obvious, BTW, I still give a lotta weight to the dual qualifier system. SS fits, Rule doesn\'t. For that reason I\'m not inclined to toss Dublin, and ya might think this is crazy, but Dublin is a horse who acts like he would benefit from a shock and DWL ain\'t afraid to pull that trigger in the Derby. He\'s talking all this shit about how much Dublin loves this track, but his races there were absolute stinkers. He knows something we don\'t and it might be this suggested change in tactics. This horse will also be a decent price with a no name rider. Must use.

[jbelfior]

DUBLIN\'s win in the Hopeful was sans blinkers.

He breezed a bullet at CD today. Perhaps BLINKERS OFF the \"shock\" from D. Wayne......one run from far back.....by Afleet Alex out of a Storm Bird mare who was not too shabby on the racetrack herself....hopefully over the traumatization (is that a real word?) of being ridden by Cory Nakatani.

Anyway....time to get back to Kings-Canucks.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Rule may or may not get a mile and a quarter. That said, the pace figures for the Fla Derby dwarfed the pace figures of all the other major preps and Rule was still around at the end. Leave him out at your own peril.

[sekrah]

I agree that the Fla Derby pace scenario looms large over the 3 year old preps, but I\'d throw an exception in there for the Bluegrass.  Paddy O\'Prado impressed me nearly wiring that field with strong fractions.  Same with his turf effort, and he\'ll have Desormeaux on.

On Rule, judging the pace figs from his Sam F Davis race at Tampa and some of his earlier Delta races and I think Rule can rate too.  I won\'t be leaving him off my tickets.

[nyc1347]

Just look at the line its really really healthy..  top at this level (2).. healthy bounce.. rest.. new top.. healthier bounce.. now rest again.  Everything on his pattern indicates A TOP EFFORT next out with just about the same amount of rest from the top 2 effort to the top 1 effort.  Very nice play here with very nice odds imo!  how many others in here can u say should def run a top effort according to pattern and rest combined and have around 25 to 1 odds or more?  Il take this one over most of these other horses easily

[sekrah]

I see Rule at 25-1 at a few books but do you really think he\'ll stay up there in the pari-mutual pools?   I got a gut feeling those 4 wins out of his lat 5 will have some pull with the layman and he\'ll inch down below 20-1.

There\'s alot to like about Rule.  Him and Super Saver are the two with the strongest 2-year old foundations IMO and the most likely to explode on May 1st and both will be in the 15 to 20-1 range.  Yum.    I\'ll throw in Endorsement to make another move forward and unless something unforeseen happens, those 3 will be my Top Tier Keys in the Derby.

[mjellish]

So what then do you make of Rule\'s last workout on Sunday?  He breezed in company with Mission Impossible and tired in the last 1/8th.  Mission Impossible drew off and out worked Rule by about 3 lengths.

So, if you like Rule do you love Mission Impossible?  Or do you just ignore those works and figure how a horse works doesn\'t mean much.

Just curious what your take on this is.

[Silver Charm]

OK Jellish,

A.) WIDE TRIP for ESKY
B.) POOR WORK for RULE last out
C.) POOR PACE and distance setup for Super Saver
D.) Discreetly Mine too slow.

ADDS Up to another 0-Fer for Pletcher

[MonmouthGuy]

I know you weren\'t asking me, but I am very discouraged by Rule\'s last work and need to see more this weekend at Churchill Downs.  I have found Mike Welsch\'s clockers report pretty helpful in weeding out horses that didn\'t take to the CD surface and are unlikely to run well (as opposed to recommending them). Looking at my notes, Recapture the Glory is the only horse I have running a new top (or pair) in the KD in the last 4 years after a negative final workout report from Welsch. Remember it well, b/c he almost blew up my super until ToE got past him in the final strides.

[RICH]

Many moons back he\'d be a auto toss with a DI of 4.60, hehehe