Race Shapes - TGJB

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

You didn\'t really have any comment on the race shape in your seminar, but in looking at what the sheets are saying, I have to say I am in shock.  It just doesn\'t make sense.

Most people are expecting Conveyance to be somewhere very near the lead (1st or 2nd).  

TG Race shapes have him as the 8th fastest horse in the race?  Among those that race shapes to expect to be in front of Conveyanc early are the filly, Mission Impazible, Noble\'s Promise and Home Boy Kris.  And race shapes expects Lookin at Lucky to be right next to Conveyance early.  The filly and Mission Impazible are stone cold closers.  How in the world does race shapes expect Conveyance to be behind them early?  (is it forecasting a stumble out of the gate?)

Additionally, in a race that looks loaded for speed, it looks like Race Shapes has Super Saver 4 lengths clear after a 1/4 mile.  Even my good friend Sekrah, who loves this horse, can\'t expect him to open up 4 lengths early on Line of David and Conveyance.

[reboundman]

I don\'t disagree about Conveyance being closer to the lead, but Devil May Care and Mission Impazible are hardly stone cold closers - based on their body of work, they are early pressers.

[TreadHead]

I think you might be reading those too litterally.  Those are raw time averages from their previous races, but they dont take into account Quirin speed points and rider instructions and what might actually happen in the race.

You are absolutely correct to assume that SS will not be 4 lengths in front of Conveyance and some of the other E-8 horses.  These horses try for the lead no matter what (assuming jock does not interfere).  In prior races, it has resulted in the times TG has recorded in the race shape.  In this race, however, if there is a much faster horse in the race (as SS is), these E-8 horses will fully extend to try to get to the lead and will probably run a faster early fraction than they ever have before.  This also means that they will be likely to burn out sooner as a result of having done that.

Any of the horses that have running lines that look like 1 1 1 1 are candidates to try to keep up with super saver, unless the trainer and jock have changed tactics.  The race shape tells us that they will be out of their leagues in trying to get to the front, and will likely over-extert in the beginning of the race, making them easy throwouts.

[sekrah]

Borel will be 4 lengths back of those front runners IMO.

[miff]

Thread,

Tell me you are not serious, reading the figs too literally. Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early, as Race Shapes indicates. Whatever Race Shapes is intended to do(Race Shapes,fancy term for pace figs?) it\'s not even close in this case.We know all about Quirin speed points, jockey intent and the rest.



Mike

[RICH]

no matter, the pace figs I have has SS faster than any of them by far, FWIW

[miff]

Rich,

Most of the pace figs have SS, who would not be able to outrun SC by 4 lengths, sent or not sent.I would say that the pace figs for most services are weak as they relate to route races on synthetic surfaces where jocks often hammerlock horses early.

Case in point here is SC, who on a dead send, is much faster early than his pace figs would indicate.In the am, SC was described as \"bullet quick\" by informed Cali eyes.

Good Luck
Mike

[dodie]

The real value of TGs race shapes I think is in determining who\'s likely to lose ground on the first turn.  Aterall, they only measure the first quarter.  In the context of sheet evaluation and handicapping, ground loss is simply more quantifiable (and therefore more \"sheet\"-like) than the art of pace handicapping and who\'s going to get the lead.  Super Saver will get the rail and save all the ground, that\'s what really matters.

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early\"

 Is your reality based on other pace figures?

[Uncle Buck]

Mission Impazible was 2 lengths off the lead all the way around in the LA Derby

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I did make a comment, I said that in this case the RS\'s might be deceptive.

The RS\'s don\'t realy predict anything, and they\'re mechanical. They average the last 3 adjusted first quarters. In the case of Conveyance, a) the average is distorted by the slow pace he was able to set at Sunland last time, and b) he is almost sure to be sent, for a couple of reasons. Borel has already said he is going to take SS back, too.

The way I look at RS\'s is to look up top first, then look below to see if there have been any distortions (caused by surface, one race out of line, etc.). The idea to list those other back races came from someone who posts here, and it waas a good one. The ones that apply most directly to today\'s situation (distance, surface) have the dates italicized.

There\'s an expression-- RTFM. The R,T, and M stand for read, the, and manual. Almost all this is covered in the explanatory material shown before the RS every day.

[miff]

\"Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early\"

\"Is your reality based on other pace figures.


...no, anyone with a cintella of racing knowledge that understands pp\'s.


Mike

[TreadHead]

Exactly what I was trying to say.  You cannot read RS too litterally and interpret it to mean that the race will look exactly as the graph shows.  The graph is an indication of what happened previously and you have to read between the lines to see what that means for today.

and what it means to me is that there are several horses with 8 QSP in this race who are going to be pushed to go faster early than they ever have, and this spells doom for them if they do.

[TreadHead]

Yes, he is reading the figs too literally if he is reading them to mean that this is exactly how the race plays out.  Not sure why you put words in my mouth and accused me of saying that MI is faster than some of these others, I never said that.  But I\'d be willing to bet $1000 that the race does not look like exactly like this race shape.  In some cases it will be right and in some it will be wrong.  I never said it was 100% wrong, I said it cannot be read too literally.

[miff]

But I\'d be willing to bet $1000 that the race does not look like exactly like this race shape


...HUH? no kidding, what did you think Jim was trying to say.


Mike