Caracortado's Next Start

[nyc1347]

I had typed a few things about Cara leading into the Preakness about him being a Polytrack horse.  I think after Saturdays race we can confirm this.  Looking at his Thorograph pattern I wanted to comment on what I see for his next race and how Im projecting it.

His firt race out was on dirt running the 12.5 effort..

he jumped up HUGE 7.5 points to a 5 the very next time out.  The KEY thing I see with him here is that if those numbers translated evenly (dirt to poly) that with 3 weeks off we should expected a pretty big bounce with no rest.  He didnt bounce big he only went backwards 1.5 points with 3 weeks rest. This is a good sign! Naturally having another 3 weeks off he went back againto a 9.5.  Well what happens next?

He gets well deserved rest and sets a new top next out running a 3.5 effort.  With a full month off (that he never got before (only 21 and 42 days)) he was able to pair that effort which is a great sign.   From that point he then took 3 weeks off and regressed 3 points.. as expected.

A few things we can establish here now..

a.  3 weeks off for him he regresses slightly a couple points at this level.
b.  30 days off he was able to come back to pair his best effort ever.
c.  and 42 days off hes run a new top effort based on patern.
d.  from the 5 (first top effort) to his next top effort (a 3) it took him 3 months to get thru that.
e. after taking 3 months to get there he was able to pair it because he got more rest than last time (only 3 weeks)
f.  this horse is getting BETTER and developing great!


Well going into the Preakness he had 42 days off.. why didnt he fire?  simple.. he ran DIRT!  Hes NOT a dirt horse so this should tell us that the Preakness effort is a NON EFFORT.

According to what we see, the Dirt effort will do a few things here:

1.  conceal his true pattern and form to the public.
2.  allow us to get much better odds next time out on poly because of his last 3 non winning efforts... with the Preakness (last out)being the worst.
3.  a new top should be expected next time he runs polytrack according to his set forward moving pattern.  
4.  this preakness race was a toss and even if his next race is on poly off short rest from this effort he should still be a play.

Im hoping that the read is correct and that this is a great example of a Recovery Pattern for us all!   Put him our watch list boys.. in my opinion he should run HUGE next out on Poly!

[TreadHead]

This is raving lunacy IMO.  Caracortado \"fired\" just fine, he made a huge sweeping move and got to the lead ever so briefly at about the 8 furlong point.  His failure in the race was related to distance pedigree, not surface dislike.  If that race is a mile long, he runs a 0 or a 1, would you then be saying that poly was his prefered surface?

I already showed you TONS of examples where 2 year olds made similar huge jumps in their second race out and if you were to plot that data and take note of which were based on surface changes there would not be anything close to a discernable correlation between surface change and jumpups.

This race was a huge effort for him, he needs rest.  But if he is better spotted in a race around 8f on dirt or synth, he could run huge.  I\'m not sure why you are so obsessed with labeling him as a horse that does not like dirt, but congrats on your show bet.

[nyc1347]

The horse is CLEARLY a Poly horse compared to dirt and runs much better on it.  ANY number he ran in the Preakness that wouldnt be a new effort should prove that he runs better on POLY.  According to his pattern entering the Preakness he runs new efforts after rest of 42 days his next start. HE DIDNT. If he comes out next time on poly and runs a top as I expect then his pattern read is consistent with my opinion on him.  At that point this would be even more verification for me that the only reason he didnt set that top Preakness day was because him (as an individual horse) likes poly better than dirt.  There wouldnt be any other explanation for it as his pattern would be consistent for it on the thorograph numbers.

What can u possibly think Cara ran in the preakness 12 lengths behind the top 3 at the finish?  I understand he was wide but you are saying he ran HUGE. He hit the stretch and stopped like a rat and Im loving it cause imo he will be HUGE NEXT time on poly.  

Take it for what it is TREAD, Im just typing my opinion for what the horse shows me on paper and trying to contribute to the board.

[Ill-bred]

Agree with treadhead.

Caracortado made a good move on the turn for home and appeared to like the surface quite a bit. He ran his race but he tired in the final eighth.

Stamina was the issue. 6 or 7f to 1 1/16 is his sweet spot imo. I would not hesitate to to back him on the dirt at those distances.

I actually talked to his jock immediately after Preakness and he said Caracortado liked the dirt, but he felt he was forced to move a tad early to avoid getting shuffled when the winner moved outside of him.

[nyc1347]

It just doesnt make sense to me.  A horse that shows a paired TOP effort and goes back 3 points cause of 3 weeks rest IS consistent with EVERYTHING he has shown us.  He then runs ANY number (thats not a top) on Preakness day and you are convinced he is ok on the dirt? it makes NO sense to me based on EVERYTHING i see with all his previous starts in his career on the thorographs.  If the Preakness was on Poly he wouldve fired HUGE.  He didnt fire HUGE on dirt so my opinion is consistent with EVERYTHING the horse has shown thus far.  

Plain and simple IF he did run AS GOOD on dirt saturday then he has done on his tops on POLY (since thats what his pattern suggested) he wouldve done it.. and i really dont think he ran a new top on Preakness so that should tell us the Dirt DOES NOT translate equally and should notbe considered as an effort next out on poly.  Its been proven 3rd time out with only 3 weeks off and only a 1.5 backwards move and its proven again with him NOT running a new top Preakness day (im assuming of course).  I will use the Preakness as a non effort next out (as it is non consistent) and expect a new top on poly flowing consistent with what i see.  If he ran a new top Preakness day well then god help me lol.


If you do want a perfect example of a horse whos numbers translate completely consistent check out First Dudes thorograph.  Everything is right in line the way its suppose to be after each start dirt or poly.  Thats NOT the case with Cara but we will see when the numbers come out to verify.

[TreadHead]

I can \"possibly\" think he finished 12 lengths behind because he was distance limited, not surface limited.  If he comes back and wins at 8.5 on poly, I will say that it is because he returned to a favorable distance and that he would have done the same on dirt.  He clearly showed he can hang with a G1 bunch at around 8f on dirt.

You never answered my question.  If they stop this race at 8f, he has run a zero. What is your read on his pattern then?  You are being WAY too dogmatic about sheet numbers and not reading between the lines, you are going out of your way to label this guy a synth only horse that hates dirt, when he clearly does not.

[Ill-bred]

Schoolyard Dreams was another Preakness runner whose distance limitation was exposed imo.

[nyc1347]

Tread you cant assume the horse wouldve run FASTER or better going shorter or do any better then they did.  The fractions in the race wouldve been completely DIFFERENT and it wouldve set things up much differently for every horse. If the preakness was a 1M race i wouldve handicapped the same and I wouldve expected JB to run.

When a horse shows something CONSISTENT with form and pattern I am confident in its consistency to allow me to gauge how he will do next time out.  Same thing went for Jackson Bend.  Yes He didnt get thru his 2yo top BUT he was on a sort of 0-X-0-X pattern with this years tops and that last effort was a toss based on many variables hes never witnessed before..  the VERIFICATION was that he NEVER went backwards off 6 weeks rest and always ran a great effort.  THAT was the key indicator that made my opinion consistent with JBs pattern..  the SAME goes for Caracortado.  He shows after rest to run absolutely great and on Preakness he didnt.  He witnessed a variable he hasnt since his first time out and didnt fire his best.  To me THAT angle is consistent and has verification and hold within my personal opinion of how he shouldve came out.  His first 3 effort is 3 months to the date NOW again and he primed for a new top NOW. he DIDNT though and to me the surface is the ONLY explaination.  He ran a 9.5 THORO NUMBER going 8.5f then 2 tops running 8.5 F back to back.. why?  its not cause he was DISTANCE LIMITED running the 9.5.. its because he had REST after his 9.5 AND 3.5 effort.

My opinion and angle as I have stated is CONSISTENT WITH verification of things i see from his thorograph pattern.  The DIRT effort in the PREAKNESS is NOT CONSISTENT though.  Theres a reason for that!  Hes better on POLY.. and thats the only reasonable explanation.

[TreadHead]

Being distance limited is a PERFECTLY reasonable explaination for what happened, especially given the way he ran during the race.  To say that your opinion is the only possible explaination is extremely narrow minded and shows an incredible lack of objectivity.  I\'m done with this discussion, have fun with your dogmatic approach.

[nyc1347]

Im not trying to come across as HEY IM THE KNOW IT ALL.. im just trying to have you understand that my opinion and analysis is CONSISTENT with his INDIVIDUAL PATTERN.  YOU say hes \"distance limited\" and have NO way of backing that up because hes NEVER run that preakness distance before! with MY opinion I have the horses HISTORY with rest.. dirt/poly figures and evidence to back all my claims and opinions up.  YOU dont cause this horse only ran THIS distance ONE time.  The horse has PROVEN WITH rest over time to be able to get the two turns and run great and develop.. YOUR narrow mindedness is tossing that ALL out the window cause you think its completely possible for him to run 8.5F BUT its impossible for him to run tops at 9.5F... THAT makes no sense.  

My opinion is based on EVERYTHING the horse has shown from day one.  YOUR opinion is based on something that happened only ONCE before (AND it JUST happened).  I think your not being open to what I have to say..  if you had a way to back your words up I am all ears.  You cant AND on top of it Caras pattern and efforts itself are in NO WAY consistent with what you are saying about him.

[TGJB]

That\'s enough. Whether you are right or wrong you are repeating yourself over and over, figuring what, that if you do it one more time the other guy will agree with you? That aside, you think the other guy is not being open minded because he thinks there is more than one possibility, and that by simply coming over to your view, which is that there is only ONE possibility, he would be open minded? Because your theory is consistent with the facts, it\'s the ONLY possible one that is?

That\'s rhetorical, by which I mean drop it. Don\'t respond.

[TreadHead]

JB, rather than recapping the play by play, could you actually shed some professional light on what you think the correct read is here?  Be interested to hear the thoughts of any of the other established handicappers here too.

[jimbo66]

Not sure I count as an \"established handicapper\", considering this year\'s Preakness was about my 10th in a row without cashing, but for what its worth, I would be willing to bet Caracortado back on dirt. I know that I have heard in the Saratoga seminars from quite a few good handicappers, that a number is a number, and you have to be careful about doing your own adjustments, etc.etc, because it can be a slippery slope, but I would agree with your assertion that THE WAY that Caracortado ran whatever number he ran, would seem to imply that the distance was a problem for him.  A sweeping move on the far turn, going \"stride for stride\" with the winner, even for a brief moment looking like he might be going better, then flattening out the last 1/8th of a mile.  Looks to me like he didn\'t want the distance.

However, because he has no form on dirt, it would only take his next effort on dirt, at a shorter distance, being poor, for me to switch off that view.

I guess what I am saying is that I can\'t blame either guy for having their view, but I would be inclined to agree with yours (although it is open for interpretation and wouldn\'t be sharply critical of anybody for viewing him as a synthetic horse)

Jim

[TGJB]

As you guys will see when we post the day, you are both wrong.

[TreadHead]

I have no problem with being wrong, as long as there is some explaination that is understandable (which I have not seen yet).  Given that there is no dialouge in the numbers you will post for the day, could you comment a little more about what you mean?  Would like to use this as a learning opportunity.