Caracortado's Next Start

[TGJB]

Wait until the sheets for the day are posted.

[nyc1347]

Well I was wrong about Cara not running good on dirt but to me with the 42 days off it still shouldve been a top effort so imo I feel next out on Poly he will run a new top and a great effort.

[TreadHead]

Which was exactly my point.  He was ready to run a new top.  He did run a new top, if you would have stopped that race at 8.5f.  But because it continued on, he ended up pairing instead of running a significant new top.  And if that race had been another .5f longer, he probably would have run a 5 instead of a 3.

While this technically may not make him \"distance challenged\" relative to his previous figures (which I still think is debatable if the distance of the race caused a pair instead of a top), I think it is quite apparent he is \"distance challenged\" relative to the other horses in the race and in trying to predict what he might run next out, it would all depends on the distance of the race and spacing/rest.  

For a paired up effort, I\'m willing to bet that was very taxing compared to other pair ups that occur in emerging horses.  If he were to wheel back in 3-4 weeks, Id be treating that last as a top and not a pair, but I realize that might be too much reading between the lines for dogmatic pattern players to fathom.  If I\'m wrong, wouldn\'t be the first time, but that\'s what I see.

[miff]

Preakness came up on the fast side on TG.Winners fig ground loaded and those that follow benefit accordingly, beaten lengths/ground.

SS ran awful,totally empty, beaten a pole and only ran 2 3/4 points worse than his derby win.Very fast race on TG.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

  \"Winners fig ground loaded and those that follow benefit accordingly, beaten lengths/ground.\"

  I\'d love to see you try to explain in detail how this variant was locked in top-down off a jump-up winner in a manner that would cause LAL\'s ground loss to speed up the figures of the other horses, but I won\'t see this because you can\'t do it.

[miff]

Rich,


Not sure what you are talking about but:

Lets just say that TG had the winner at zero instead of neg -2(same ground loss of course but re-thougth track speed for the day.)What do you think would happen to the figs of all the other horses if the winner was a zero?

Rags came in at 4 unconfirmed (equal to a TG 1/2) and Beyer 102(equal to a TG -neg 1/2 adjusted for ground)

Whatever you like Rich, my point was the entire race came up faster on TG than I calculated, which affects ALL runners.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff,

I agree with your new point, which is that if TG made all of the horses slower, then all of the horses would be slower on TG.

Now here is your old point:

\"Winners fig ground loaded and those that follow benefit accordingly,\"

It strikes me as slightly more provocative than your new point. But that\'s fine. You have cleared things up with your new point.

[nyc1347]

as thorograph users we cant assume anything but what the numbers represent.. if the race went shorter or longer we have to take a stance.  

if they went shorter, lets say 8F(like you are saying he cant get \"distance\"), Cara wouldve still run a top effort.. which is great! BUT even with that effort it wouldnt have been good enough to win in that race.   with different circumstances such as fractions (in that given race), according to his performance and everything that took place, LAL wouldve still ran a neg 2 and still faster and probably won BUT by less lengths.  Cara MIGHT have beaten other horses(who ran faster) because of a good trip lets say BUT the number would be the same.

Basically Cara wouldve still lost but by fewew horse lengths rather than about 12 or so lengths going longer like he did at this distance.  The number would be the same either way

[TreadHead]

We are only allowed to take the figures and patterns at face value and are not supposed to \"read between the lines\" on anything?  Find me others like you who agree that a strictly dogmatic approach like this is the right one, and I\'ll take back my comments.  But I find that to be absolutely laughable.

[nyc1347]

this is my personal approach.  i buy the thorographs for these figures and reasons i speak of.  ANYONE can say its an unproven situation when they come up with ONE way of reading the figures as they are thats different than my own.. and vice versa.  the point of these thorographs to me is to look for value that the public does not see and make money on it.  IF the public does see the horse i choose its my decision at that point to pursue it or pass.  my specific way is what each horse as an individual tells me its running based on the figure.. theres nothing else to it.  I dont care what the sire of bla bla bla with the cross of horse X in the family of whatever runs.. THIS specific horse has unique abilities and will run within them.  anything else to me means NOTHING other than the odds of the horse i am getting with other inner variable such as rest, medication (lasix), pattern, etc.  dont know what else to say.  u have your way and it is what it is.

[MonmouthGuy]

If Baffert had put Midnight Lute in the BCC, would you have bet that he could run a negative 5 going 10F?  I have found that there is no easier way to burn money using speed figs than by assuming that distance challenged horses can carry their TG # an extra 1 or 2 furlongs. Nobles Promise will never run a new top at 9+ furlongs.  That is why his connections are cutting him back to a mile.  It is the rare horse that outruns his breeding and distance limitations to win at classic distances.  A Ghostzapper comes around once in a lifetime.  Good luck.

[moosepalm]

I have found the discussions of pedigree and distance limitations to be one of the more interesting topics that have been kicked around here.  My take is slightly different.  I believe it can\'t be ignored in handicapping distance races, but, like many other predictive factors, my reliance on it \"all depends.\"  For example, in handicapping the Derby, I will pay little attention to pedigree.  If I see a horse has moved up, successfully to 1 1/8, with continuing signs of improvement, and has shown solid development from his 2-year old campaign, I will consider him regardless of pedigree.  Will I get burned occasionally?  Of course.  But, in the past 10-15 years, this has not been much of an issue.  Sadly, it\'s been true more frequently of horses that I haven\'t bet, than the ones that I have.  Nonetheless, I don\'t find it determinative, just one more variable to be weighed, and in the Derby, I will weigh it less than other races for more experienced horses, where I\'ve seen a stronger evidentiary pattern which would support the pedigree concerns.

[nyc1347]

I seperate sprinters from distance horses only one way.  I label them as either a one turn horse or a 2 turn horse (both).  Once a horse goes 2 turns and proves within the thorographs he can run consistent with his 1 turn efforts then its all gravy.  Midnight Lute ran in the sprint division cause he was not consistent running distance compared to his 1 turn efforts based on the thoros.  Also, he never ran the distance after running those freak numbers so we really dont know how he wouldve ran.. he was previously only 2 points off his neg. 2 sprint effort going the distance so that is in line.  If he was pointed to the classic im sure we wouldve seen a prep race to determine that but that doesnt exist so who knows.

For a horse like Quality Road he can run the distance very fast so the numbers automatically translate to 1 turn with no issues imo.   Similar with Nobles Promise..  He ran his best effort going 2 turns so theres nothing keeping me from thinking he can go any different at 9F compared to 10F or even cutting back to 7F.  His early 3yo top of a 0 going 2 turns is a great sign and he should be able to get thru it eventually with no problem.  At what distance is yet to be known.. but it will most likely be 2 turns consistent with what we see on his thoro.

[mjellish]

Did watching Noble\'s Promise completely shut down at the 1/8th pole after getting a near perfect trip in the Derby not mean anything to you?

My take is this.  Horses do have preferred distance limitations that can be measured.  A true miler like NP can get 1 1/8th under the right circumstances if most things go their way, but they will need a whole bunch of things to go their way in order to win at 1 1/4 and beyond,and rarely will they run a top.  I would still contend that SS really doesn\'t want to go a classic distance, but he was able to win the Derby in a very slow time by catching a perfect trip on a wet track that he absolutely loved and by being the only horse who hugged the absolute best part of the track for nearly the entire race.  The fact that some of the other leading contenders caught terrible or troubled trips also helped.  He beat a weak group of 3 year olds, period.  And I will bet against him accordingly in the future.  There\'s a reason why in a typical derby field over half the field usually never winds up trying to go 1 1/4 or longer ever again.  

Now that\'s just my take, and I will win or lose my money based on it, which is the whole idea behind parimutuel wagering.  There aren\'t a lot of 3 year olds that want to go 1 1/4 or longer, and we don\'t see nearly as many tops in these races as we do at 1 1/8th and shorter races.  The Belmont is 1 1/2, so you can take that even further.  Given the normal pattern of development for 3 year old horses and how many of the Derby horses skip the Preakness and get 5 weeks to the Belmont, and how other newcomers come in as fresh as that or fresher, and the fact that the Belmont field is often the smallest and least troubled field of any of the TC races, we should see a number of top efforts if there is no difference between 1 1/2 and 1 1/8.  Last year exactly one horse ran a new top, Summer Bird, and his dad won the Belmont.  In 2008 it was DaTara and he hasn\'t done a thing since.  Other horses that have run new tops in the Belmont

2007 Rags to Riches
2005 Andromeda\'s Hero
2004 Birdstone
2002 Sarava
2001 Point Given
2000 Commendable
1999 Lemon Drop Kid, Vision and Verse
1997 Freehouse
1996 Editor\'s Note
1992 AP Indy  

That\'s nearly 20 years of Belmonts, and only 13 tops from the horses who hit the board.  

The distance gets them, and sometimes the majority of the field backs up and we get a DaTara or a Sarava or whatever.  And if Noble\'s Promise or Super Saver were in this field I would be willing to go ALL IN against them taking first or second no matter what their TG numbers were or how much rest they had.

The Belmont is not usually won by the best horse, it is won by the horse that gets the distance better than the rest of the field.  Of all the trainers out there I would say Zito understands this better than any of them.

[nyc1347]

Wouldnt you agree that the Belmont stakes is an unfair example of using distance to make a point?  there are MANY horses who ran the Belmont off very short rest..  how can we really expect top efforts when many of the horses who have run did not get the proper rest they needed?  this goes ESPECIALLY for those who ran all 3 races in the triple crown such as smarty jones.