Random thought but does anyone

[covelj70]

else think its very interesting that the top part of this Keenland yearling sale is so strong with very very little participation from Sheik Mo?

There\'s some new blood buying at the top end which is great to see.

As I posted last week, there are clearly things that need to be fixed in the game (like many other games) but there are also some reasons to be optimistic and the top end of this sale being so strong without Sheik Mo playing is one of them.

[high roller]

You have got to be kidding...... Let me explain, first they the front-loaded the sale and there is nothing to compare it too and furthermore the absence of Sheik Mo is a\"long term disaster\".

Watch what happens after Book 3, the sale will collapse. This reminds me of Charlie Haywood crowing that the Saratoga meet was a big success. All \"spin\" but no pocketbook!

[covelj70]

High Roller,

The sale is \"front loaded\" every year.  They take the best horses with the best pedigrees every year for book 1.  Been that way forever.  Not sure what you are talking about.

First, here are some numbers. The averages and median\'s were up more than 30% from book 1 last year.  Those are just numbers, not spin.  The $4.2mn horse was the highest price paid for a yearling since 2006, another number, not opinion.  The guy who sold the $1mn smart strike ridgling today had a $179,000 reserve on the horse. He had no idea the bidding would go up to $1mn. Another fact.

Second, I know alot of people at the sale, including the agent consigning the horse than I am selling there and another agent who is working on the buyside for me and its a strong consensus by alot people on the ground that the sale is stronger than expected.  Its not the go go 2007 sale by any stretch but it\'s better than it was last year.

Of course books 4, 5 and 6 will be weak, the median price in those sessions is typically about 1/10th of the book 1 every year so your view that the \"sale will fall apart after book 3\" is just like your comment that they \"front-loaded the sale,\" It happens that way every year.

Do you have any numbers to back up your view that I \"have got to be kidding\" or were you just mouthing off?

[martoon]

Covel...

I\'m also surprised it\'s so strong. I\'m just amazed at you guys who play at the top of the market.  How many of these scores of $400,000+ yearlings make a profit for the buyers?  I mean you really have to be a Grade 1 winner to make that pay off especially as there are very few going for the real big money as stallions these days.  Is it just a numbers game where you buy a batch of them and hope one breaks through that\'s worth $10 million?  I\'m not sure I could play that game even if I was a billionaire.  That phone call from the trainer that a  $2 million unraced horse got hurt down must be brutal.   What is interesting to me now is the proliferation of the evermore lucrative state bred programs where you can have a horse and training paid for with one restricted state bred maiden win these days.  Are you buying any of that stock in addition to your bigger stakes horses?

[Bet Twice]

Covel,

While it\'s too early to say definetively what the final outcome is, the early numbers speak for themselves.  I\'m not sure how anyone could put a negative spin on the facts you cite.....

[Silver Charm]

The Sheik may have been playing with \"borrowed\" money for a lot of thsoe years. (Sovereign wealth Funds) Maybe there are more Big Players at the table figuring they don\'t have to do battle with his \"blank check\".

I would be the first to admit I\'m not greatly informed here like others but maybe people want a \"real race horse\" for once. There hasn\'t been any rush to retire and syndicate deals. Japan isn\'t gobbling things up much anymore. Storm Cat is about pensioned so Mike Tabor doesn\'t have much to do.

Besides the Big Studs, AP Indy, Smart Strike, Unbridled Song, there are some \"really good\" young Stallions out there for people to bid on.

[high roller]

Why don\'t we just wait and see the numbers for the whole sale and see if it\'s up or down from last year, CARE TO WAGER???

I have also talked to many consignors at the sale (as I am a buyer). There is less traffic at the sale and more importantly many horses going through with no reserve as they are captives of bank liens. There are also scores of farms and and sellers on the verge of bankruptcy.

P.S. I feel sorry for you as you are a \"confirmed kool-aid drinker\" who feels the need that every horse needs weeks and weeks of rest between every start.

[Silver Charm]

I don\'t doubt for a minute the \"farms facing bank leins\" aspect. There had to be way too much free credit floating around at previous sales. Or just a lot of shaky collateral.

This is good for respectible prices being paid. Maybe the days of free credit \"so people can fleece the geese\" are over.....

[Bet Twice]

High Roller,

Let me recap this thread:

Covil makes a post expressing optimism that the ealry results of the sale look promising.
You respond by saying he\'s an idiot for thinking such a thing.
He responds by posting facts - not opinions - on the results of the sale to date and asks you to state facts to the contrary.
You respond by asking him to wager on the outcome, basically changing the subject, and still haven\'t provided any facts.  To top it off you then go totally off topic and attack his handicapping approach with the ridiculous Kool-Aid drinking bit.  Still no facts...

Does that about summarize it?

[alm]

Check out the OBS yearling sale, which was a terrific improvement by all metrics over recent sales...it\'s not Keeneland, but it\'s indicative of a comeback.  Of course, there are fewer horses being bred, which is good and that has to have an effect on the overall value of each individual.

Regardless of how one reads and deciphers it, good horses are selling for more than they did last year, they are racing for better purses overall and the business-sport will be around longer than the critics who don\'t begin to understand it.

[covelj70]

Hey Martoon,

Thanks so much for the message.

One thing up front, I am far far far from a big player at these things.  I will take a leg or a third of a big one once in awhile but I don\'t want to give anyone the impression that I am some big spender because I am not.  I wish I could be and I hope to be some day but I am not there yet.  By the way, it really really sucks when the trainer calls you about one of the expensive ones going down (even if you only own a leg).

Its a really really interesting question that you ask about the state bred programs.  Some of my partners and I are focusing on the PA Bred program.

Check out the card on Sat at Philly Park (I guess now Parx Racing).

The are calling it owners appreciation day and I sure do appreciate it.

We are running one of our homebreds in a MSW for 2 year old fillies where the purse is 90k. It\'s an open company race (i.e. not restricted to PA state breds) but first preference for starters was given to horses that had raced before at Philly Park and then second preference given to horses that had workouts at philly park.  This was a creative approach by the Parx racing secretary.  We ran our filly in her second race at Philly specifically with the idea of this race in mind in case we didn\'t break our maiden in that race (we finished 3rd but ran a 13 and change on the sheets which should be good enough to win this if we can pair).  Since we are PA Bred, even though the purse of that open company race was 45k, we ran for 63k because PA breds run for a 40% bonus against open company if you finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

If we win this race on Sat. with the 90k purse (we are one of the favorites but who ever knows with these young ones), it would pay for the entire cost of the mare we bought out of the sale a few years ago, the stud fee and all of the costs of getting this one to the races and we would still have some left over.  Her name is Mean Reversion (I am the Scout Stable part of the ownership group that\'s listed)

The PA Bred program is terrific.  The idea is clearly catching on which we can measure by the number of PA breds that are entered this year in the mid-atlantic yearling sale in a few weeks.

PA clearly has the right idea, others need to start following their lead.

[covelj70]

Alm,

Good post, totally agree.

Are there things we can do better and fix as an industry?  Absolutely yes but we are making some progress (breeding fewer and not just to pinhook, less buying on credit, better drug testing, far from perfect of course) and I think we will get there.  See my post back to Martoon on the PA Bred program.  You can actually make the economics work with PA Breds.

We have a long way to go but we are making some progress.

[miff]

The Kee sale is not even close to a reflection of the big racing picture which is as close to a disaster as possible.Consignors were paranoid pre sale, every one spoken to, shaky at best. I\'m sure they are somewhat relieved by the early results but it\'s probably temporary.

A new sucker or two at the sale is no more than a temporary bright spot, the absence of Sheik Mo a disaster.The new suckers will probably go broke like most of big multi million that cash in their \"core\" businesses and try to \"conquer\" racing. I could list a dozen or so recently, one I\'am personal friends with(stuck $50 million), but we\'ll just look at the all time sucker Sheik Mo, stuck about $500 million on racing stock(last rough count)

There is no question that there are bargain hunters at Kee who are aware that several\"nice\" consignments are being handled on behalf banks who are liquidating stock of owners who have defaulted on loans. These consignments have no RNA and guys that know are sharp-shooting trying to steal one for maybe half of what they are reallly worth.

The lack of bank credit alone has farms, pin hookers,breeders on their knees with no real end in sight.Many large claiming outfits in NY and Cali gone and some perennial players that wager big money are slowly backing up or disappearing.CALI increasing the takeout on certain exotics is bound to stop borderline rebaters a little, as a couple of points is huge on the handle of a whale.

Horseman\'s bookkeepers across the country have never had so many outfits \"not in good standing\"(owners not paying bills). Trainers in New York are putting horses on trucks and returning them to their owners for non payment of day rates.Top NY claiming outfit owes their trainer over $350k for almost one year.

The final shoe may be about to drop. The recent recommendation of the committee that reviewed racing in New Jersey is the first sign of the politicians wavering on supporting/subsidizing the game. Once the politicians figure out that there may be an extra buck \"in letting racing go private\",it will truly become a boutique  meet type game.The argument about racings job creation and economic contribution is way overstated when picked apart by the bean counters.Statebred programs will be slaughtered when/if the politicians stop forcing racino\'s to contribute big money to pump up losing live race meets.

The most lucrative racing franchise in the US,New York, was \"passed on\" by some very sharp business people because EVERY feasibility study performed by the consultants showed racing to be an albatross on the gaming/slot revenue, now and in the future.A foreign non racing outfit,Genting the only real bidder now owns the Aqueduct slots.

Bright spots?,It must be my sunglasses blocking them.Having said that, I\'ll be one of the last suckers looking to make a pick six play or buy one or sell one or whatever.


Mike

[alm]

Mike

Read \"Supercycles\" by Arun Motiani...a book about the macro economic issues that shape the micro issues...the world economy is in a massive paradigm shift that makes things look and feel dire for some, but absolutely limitless for others.

Racing is a business-sport that surfs waves like the one he describes.  It\'s going to look awful for some and very promising for others.  IMO a combination of internet and cross border betting will combine with a smaller thoroughbred population to result eventually in a smoothing of this downturn.

It will never look great in the US again, for sure.  I agree with you about that.  But it will look a lot better to the bettor at some point...betting on better stock in boutique meets and foreign tracks.  It\'s coming.

[covelj70]

Shocker that Miff takes a negative contrarian view to one of my posts, haven\'t seen that before.

I am pretty sure that if I posted that the sky was blue, Miff would find a way to vehemently negatively disagree with that.  I get it Miff, you think I am an idiot.  It\'s a long line that you have ahead of you to express that view.  The line starts with my wife, you will have to wait for awhile in the line while she goes through her list of issues.

Good thing is that if Miff is right, it\'s only a matter of days before the racing industry disappears alltogether and so we won\'t have to worry about any of this stuff anymore.